Real estate bubble bursting at higher end inventory. (Boston, Newton: for sale, condo)

[BostonCollege]

I was evaluating data for SFH above 800K in major town in greater Boston area and see a major buildup of
inventory in price range above 800K. This includes all the sought after towns near boston and significantly higher than last few years.

Is the bubble bursting? Will there be a trickle down effect as there are only limited numbers of buyers in high range. ( this discussion if primarily about higher inventory rather than personal finance/HHI!)

People who bought their houses in top ten towns in 650k range in 2010-11 are putting their properties for sale in 900k range without any substantial improvement will have to reduce their asking prices I guess.

Any thoughts about higher than normal inventory above 800k?

[Parsec]

The Globe had an article about this sometime in the past couple months.

[semiurbanite]

Originally Posted by BostonCollege

I was evaluating data for SFH above 800K in major town in greater Boston area and see a major buildup of
inventory in price range above 800K. This includes all the sought after towns near boston and significantly higher than last few years.

Is the bubble bursting? Will there be a trickle down effect as there are only limited numbers of buyers in high range.

People who bought their houses in top ten towns in 650k range in 2010-11 are putting their properties for sale in 900k range without any substantial improvement will have to reduce their asking prices I guess.

Any thoughts about higher than normal inventory above 800k?

Is it higher than last May? Where is the data? You do realize inventory spikes in the spring right?

[Boston_Burbs]

Interesting stats for Marblehead.

Current:
Under $500k 3 homes (1 is pretty much a condo, 1 is a dump)
Over $500k: 62 Homes

Under Agreement/Contingent

Under $500k: 20 homes, days to offer 15
Over $500k 36 Homes, days to offer 30

[3cents]

Originally Posted by BostonCollege

I was evaluating data for SFH above 800K in major town in greater Boston area and see a major buildup of inventory in price range above 800K.

It'll be interesting to see the breakdown by town, if your data supports that. For instance, 800K houses are still selling very fast in Winchester, since the median price is 950K!

[jayrandom]

I think this is totally town dependent. A few years back there was a glut of homes in the $1.2m+ range in Westwood but lower priced inventory basically consisted of houses no one wanted. Prices at the high end seemed to fall, but they can only fall so much when less-expensive housing is going up with increased demand.

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I think this is totally town dependent. A few years back there was a glut of homes in the $1.2m+ range in Westwood but lower priced inventory basically consisted of houses no one wanted. Prices at the high end seemed to fall, but they can only fall so much when less-expensive housing is going up with increased demand.

Agreed. Here in Needham we're starting to see a log jam starting around $1.5M. I don't think you can make the blanket statement that $800K is the cut off point across the state where the market changes. Also, characterizing this as a "bubble bursting" is absurd. There's always been a delineation in each town where above that line the market is much slower and below it the market is much more active. The line moves with the general appreciation/depreciation the town is going through over time as well. A lot of where the line is drawn has to do with the median income of the town. More high earners in town means a more active higher end market which means the line is higher.

[rethcir]

I see this happening in Newton, seems like a lot of million+ listings sitting around. Not a lot of inventory of under million though.

[tysmith95]

Originally Posted by rethcir

I see this happening in Newton, seems like a lot of million+ listings sitting around. Not a lot of inventory of under million though.

A 1.5 million dollar house in Newton is a modest home anywhere else in the country haha, I don't think there are any single family homes in Newton/Brookline that cater to the middle market.

[jan0105]

$800,000 homes aren't even hitting the market here, they're sold before they hit MLS. The $1.3m and over market is slow, however.