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Old 09-27-2017, 12:18 PM
 
8,214 posts, read 8,473,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
No. Price. Price is the important thing. Boston has higher prices than Nashville (and Detroit), so you can say that Boston is more desirable. It's a very specific kind of desirability, namely it's their desire to spend money to live there. Don't read too much into it. A reasonable counter-argument is that Boston has similar desirability but a much lower supply, so the two cities share a similar demand curve. That's why I mentioned that Boston also has a larger supply, which implies that its demand curve must be higher. More people are willing to pay more money to live in Boston; no amount of demand curve trickery will refute that.

Alternately, you can just say "people vote with their feet" and the more people in a metro area, the more desirable it is. That's actual a defensible statement, but comes with a caveat on what it means for somewhere to be desirable (specifically, it no longer assumes that people are choosing between two places on the equal footing of not living in either).

I'm not sure what you mean by 'net sales', but I assume you mean new housing sales, tells you about growth, which tells you about price-dependent desirability.
You understand that populations don't shift at once. Aleppo has more people still than Portland ME but Portland is at least slightly more desirable e at the moment. All total population tells you is the desirability aggregated over time. Nashville may eventually catch Boston but because Boston was the more desirable place for 250 of the last 300 years or so (or so) then it is bigger.
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Old 09-27-2017, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Pawtucket, RI
1,225 posts, read 698,873 times
Reputation: 819
Some metrics based on the American Community Survey 2011-2015 county to county migration flows

Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk counties, MA
Population 2,969,087
Movers 431,917
Movers as % of population 14.6%
% of movers from outside MA, NH, RI, and CT 51.6%
Movers from out of state(s) as % of population 7.5%

Davidson county, TN
Population 649,216
Movers 128,807
Movers as % of population 19.8%
% of movers from out of state 25.4%
Movers from out of state as % of population 5.0%
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Old 09-27-2017, 01:37 PM
 
31,643 posts, read 21,790,024 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
And I have no problem with comparing Boston to a bigger city, it's just harder to say something as definitive. LA is a bad example as it has a higher median home price, but Chicago is a good one. We know Chicago has a much bigger supply and a lower price. Without additional information, it's difficult to say if the demand curve for Chicago is above, below, or right on top of the demand curve for Boston. Conversely, Honolulu has a smaller supply and is more expensive, it's also not possible to say much about the relative position of the demand curves there (without additional information).


Chicago's economy isn't very good, and hasn't been for awhile, which is one reason it is such a darn bargain to live in.
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Old 09-27-2017, 04:17 PM
 
3,843 posts, read 3,742,849 times
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Some of the other factors within rents and supply are the following.

Residency requirements. If city works must live in town that automatically sets a base line for the amount of housing to exist. It would be hard to tell new employees to move in if there's no empty units.

Height restrictions. DC has this and others did for awhile. DC doesn't have massive skyscrapers as the restriction is supposed to create better views of the city. At the same point if you cannot build it makes it much more likely to ask for more.

Rent controls. These don't work for a variety of reasons. If you cannot raise rents then that means you cut back on maintenance. Once that happens the quality becomes poor. Since there is no incentive to build new units new companies don't come in and as a result tenants might sublet apartments to make up for the scarcity and the increase in rents.
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Old 09-28-2017, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
7,441 posts, read 6,502,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
Some of the other factors within rents and supply are the following.

Residency requirements. If city works must live in town that automatically sets a base line for the amount of housing to exist. It would be hard to tell new employees to move in if there's no empty units.

Height restrictions. DC has this and others did for awhile. DC doesn't have massive skyscrapers as the restriction is supposed to create better views of the city. At the same point if you cannot build it makes it much more likely to ask for more.

Rent controls. These don't work for a variety of reasons. If you cannot raise rents then that means you cut back on maintenance. Once that happens the quality becomes poor. Since there is no incentive to build new units new companies don't come in and as a result tenants might sublet apartments to make up for the scarcity and the increase in rents.
Thank you!
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Old 09-28-2017, 10:24 AM
 
6,557 posts, read 6,429,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Inertia is a hell of a thing, that's why most people stay, but if anything Massachusetts is one of the prouder state. I know people from PA, OH and NY who are largely ashamed of their state/city/region.
Meh, outside of sports all MA people seem to do is complain and grumble about everything. PA and NY seem similar in that regard, not sure about OH.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
Yes. I understand that. It doesn't matter to the point I was trying to make. If we assume that the demand curve is monotonic, then higher price plus higher demand means that the demand curve for Boston is higher than the demand curve for Nashville. If Nashville had a much greater supply, it could be possible that the curves intersect somewhere, I was just excluding that possibility.

And your brownie example illustrates my point exactly. If you sold the same brownies in Boston and in Brattelboro, you would sell more brownies and get more money in Boston. Just like if you sold the exact same house in Nashville and Boston, you'd get more money for it in Boston. It's not the house itself that's causing the demand (and the Nashville housing stock is likely at least newer), it's the location. That's what the price tells us, that the Boston location is more in demand than the Nashville location (or that there's more value to shipping your brownie to Boston than Brattleboro).
You could probably send your mediocre brownies to Puerto Rico right now and get twice the price you got in Boston for them. Does that make PR more desirable than Boston?


Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
I think we're in agreement in principle but not in terminology. I agree Nashville is a better value, meaning that what you get for the price is probably better in Nashville. I still think Boston is more desirable, as reflected by its higher price. To use another example, I think a Toyota Camry is a better value than a Lexus ES 350, but I still think the Lexus is a nicer car. Or I think flying coach is a better value than flying first class, but can say without a doubt flying first class is better.

The total sales argument is just there to confirm that its not some weird demand curve effect.
I think it's more relevant to use the auto comparison with actual homes, not the location. The Camry is a 3/1 cape, and the Lexus is a 12 room colonial.


Both vehicles will sell for more in Northern Maine (where I live), than in the Boston area. Northern Maine is not a more desirable location to own a vehicle (I don't think anyone would argue that), but it also doesn't have the mega-dealerships with their endless lots of new autos to keep the incentives up and pricing low.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mp775 View Post
Some metrics based on the American Community Survey 2011-2015 county to county migration flows

Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk counties, MA
Population 2,969,087
Movers 431,917
Movers as % of population 14.6%
% of movers from outside MA, NH, RI, and CT 51.6%
Movers from out of state(s) as % of population 7.5%

Davidson county, TN
Population 649,216
Movers 128,807
Movers as % of population 19.8%
% of movers from out of state 25.4%
Movers from out of state as % of population 5.0%
I had trouble downloading from the US Census site, but I'd be interested to know metrics for the suburban counties (especially Williamson and Sumner, but also Rutherford and Wilson) that are attracting much of the new transplants in that metro. If you include Middlesex and Norfolk for the Boston area, that would only be fair.

Last edited by massnative71; 09-28-2017 at 11:00 AM..
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Old 09-28-2017, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
7,441 posts, read 6,502,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Meh, outside of sports all MA people seem to do is complain and grumble about everything. PA and NY seem similar in that regard, not sure about OH.




You could probably send your mediocre brownies to Puerto Rico right now and get twice the price you got in Boston for them. Does that make PR more desirable than Boston?




I think it's more relevant to use the auto comparison with actual homes, not the location. The Camry is a 3/1 cape, and the Lexus is a 12 room colonial.


Both vehicles will sell for more in Northern Maine (where I live), than in the Boston area. Northern Maine is not a more desirable location to own a vehicle (I don't think anyone would argue that), but it also doesn't have the mega-dealerships with their endless lots of new autos to keep the incentives up and pricing low.




I had trouble downloading from the US Census site, but I'd be interested to know metrics for the suburban counties (especially Williamson and Sumner, but also Rutherford and Wilson) that are attracting much of the new transplants in that metro. If you include Middlesex and Norfolk for the Boston area, that would only be fair.
Great post! Also, I know plenty of people in OH and PA who love their area too, they just don't think it's the only place in the world, as is the case oftentimes among a certain type of coastal dweller.
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Old 09-28-2017, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Westwood, MA
3,302 posts, read 4,229,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post

You could probably send your mediocre brownies to Puerto Rico right now and get twice the price you got in Boston for them. Does that make PR more desirable than Boston?
It means people in Puerto Rico desire brownies more than people in Boston. Or that the supply is severely limited right now. How desirable a brownie is somewhere tells you a little bit about how desirable a place it is; how desirable a house is somewhere tells you a lot more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
I think it's more relevant to use the auto comparison with actual homes, not the location. The Camry is a 3/1 cape, and the Lexus is a 12 room colonial.
Just an example of what I mean by value as opposed to price. Cape/colonial is also a good example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71 View Post
Both vehicles will sell for more in Northern Maine (where I live), than in the Boston area. Northern Maine is not a more desirable location to own a vehicle (I don't think anyone would argue that), but it also doesn't have the mega-dealerships with their endless lots of new autos to keep the incentives up and pricing low.
Again, supply is the limit here. Fewer cars in Maine and a higher price doesn't let me conclude anything about where cars are more valuable. I'd suspect the demand curve is probably not as high as there isn't as much money in Maine.
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Old 09-28-2017, 12:09 PM
 
8,214 posts, read 8,473,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjimmy24 View Post
Great post! Also, I know plenty of people in OH and PA who love their area too, they just don't think it's the only place in the world, as is the case oftentimes among a certain type of coastal dweller.
People in Massachusetts will ***** about it to other people from the state, but defend the heck out of it if someone else says something negative. Based off my experience most people in WNY you could tell them their town sucks as an outsider and they'll largely agree and then complain about their city. Try doing that in Boston to an actual native.
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Old 09-28-2017, 12:45 PM
 
6,557 posts, read 6,429,953 times
Reputation: 4443
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
It means people in Puerto Rico desire brownies more than people in Boston. Or that the supply is severely limited right now. How desirable a brownie is somewhere tells you a little bit about how desirable a place it is; how desirable a house is somewhere tells you a lot more.



Just an example of what I mean by value as opposed to price. Cape/colonial is also a good example.



Again, supply is the limit here. Fewer cars in Maine and a higher price doesn't let me conclude anything about where cars are more valuable. I'd suspect the demand curve is probably not as high as there isn't as much money in Maine.
Kind of my whole point. Higher prices can be caused by a limited supply in addition to a higher perceived desirability. The Boston area is facing a chronic shortage of inventory right now. The market is influenced by desperate homebuyers, just like someone in PR might be desperate for a fresh warm brownie right about now.
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