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Old 03-07-2018, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Chibostoncaliseattle
2,426 posts, read 1,313,431 times
Reputation: 2156

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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Notice Randolph increased a lot, I project that in 2018 to increase a further 10% to maybe 380,000

I think by 2018

1. Brookline 2.10 mil
2. Cambridge 1.50 mil (Restarts Growth)
3. Wellesley 1.45 mil
4. Weston 1.42 mil
5. Newton 1.28 mil
6. Lexington 1.24 mil
7. Dover 1.22 mil
8. Winchester 1.20 mil
9. Belmont 1.1 mil
10. Lexington 1.07 mil

Cities like Randolph, Chelsea, Lowell, Brockton and Malden will grow in value. Newburyport and Nahant will as well.

Watertown/Somerville/Medford/Cambridge will continue to flourish i think.


Looking into the far future; will Somerville and Arlington pass 1 mil?
Will Weston fall Newton?
South Shore seems to be booming, will it continue? (Bridgewater, Canton, Hingham, etc)
Thats the question I gather.
Somerville, as a SFH median, should surpass $1M. Limited stock, especially for SFH, will cause heavily overinflated numbers, and the rents in Somerville will continue to increase. A small, updated SFH is worth it's weight in gold. More so than possibly any other market right now outside of Brookline and Cambridge.. Great transportation, walk ability, continuously growing amenities, access to the city, and access to 95 via 93.

Arlington, though demand will continue and the housing shortage will continue to suffocate buyers, will likely be slower to get to that point. Traditionally, Arlington plays well in the $700-$1M space. There aren't enough large homes or lots to push it to $1M as a median any time soon. Adversely, a town like Needham has plenty of luxury homes and neighborhoods, and lots lend well to tear downs. Price p/sq ft. probably is different, but I just don't see that same level of tear down and build up in Arlington- Frankly, and maybe because it's so dense, the lots are too small for significant new builds. No data to back that up, simply a gut feeling.

As for the south shore. I'm not seeing the same level of growth outside of the coastal communities. 10 year growth has been solid in towns like Canton, Braintree, Dedham as buyers search for options with a train and decent proximity to Boston. But overall, 10 year growth seems healthier and stronger North/West of the city.

Last edited by mwj119; 03-07-2018 at 10:30 AM..
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Old 03-07-2018, 12:08 PM
 
339 posts, read 239,904 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post

As for the south shore. I'm not seeing the same level of growth outside of the coastal communities. 10 year growth has been solid in towns like Canton, Braintree, Dedham as buyers search for options with a train and decent proximity to Boston. But overall, 10 year growth seems healthier and stronger North/West of the city.
I totally agree with you about 10 year growth, but the gap becomes a lot closer when you look at 5 year growth, and becomes nonexistent when you look at 1 year growth. Now 1 year growth is too small a time frame to say much on it's own, but I think there is enough there to put north and south shore at even money as to growth in the next five years.

Also, 10 years ago was still the start of the mortgage crisis, so I'm not sure how much weight I would give the 10 year numbers.
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Old 03-11-2018, 06:22 PM
 
95 posts, read 104,558 times
Reputation: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
In 2011 I purchased my property in Arlington. Today I'm looking at about a 65% increase in value. Sorry you got locked out of Arlington.....my property is in the Heights & I agree it's a great mix of suburban & city living.
I bought in the Heights in 2016. Big house with skyline views, easy walk to shops, busses, Trader Joe’s, etc. Thought that maybe I had overbid, but I think I could sell for over my purchase price now, if I had to. The appreciation in Arlington has been crazy. I’m happy here. By the way, check this: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...6/home/8447589
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Old 03-11-2018, 06:33 PM
 
95 posts, read 104,558 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dm84 View Post
Current prices are already unworkable in a lot of the top tier towns. The capping of the SALT deduction will probably accelerate the collapse in home values (on a relative scale, even though someone buying such an expensive house shouldn't be relying on that tax break).

On a broader scale, I think the cost of living and cost of home ownership in particular will drive prices down. Even a relatively inexpensive house costs a ton of money and time to maintain and the math on owning a house isn't as favorable as it used to be.
Nah. On my household income of $300k, I end up ahead with the regressive republican tax code. If you’re at a high enough income, you don’t mind giving up SALT in favor of reduced income tax. I think I’ll take that savings and give it to my kids, since they’re the ones funding my tax cut.
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Old 03-11-2018, 10:31 PM
 
4,968 posts, read 4,952,919 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbo21 View Post
I bought in the Heights in 2016. Big house with skyline views, easy walk to shops, busses, Trader Joe’s, etc. Thought that maybe I had overbid, but I think I could sell for over my purchase price now, if I had to. The appreciation in Arlington has been crazy. I’m happy here. By the way, check this: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...6/home/8447589
Thanks for posting that home listing. That's 362k over asking! I would not have expected a "bidding-war" at that price level. A $2,260,000 home for Arlington is staggering. I'll never doubt, again, that schools matter. When Arlington went & rebuilt every elementary school & upgraded the quality of its educational offerings real estate prices took off. The new Arlington of 2018 looks nothing like it did 20 years ago.

I'm currently renting my house, but I'm tempted to move into the property myself soon because the town is so convenient. Trader Joe's & Whole Foods both on Mass Ave & what looks like a lot of room left for future real estate gains.
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:44 AM
 
95 posts, read 104,558 times
Reputation: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
Thanks for posting that home listing. That's 362k over asking! I would not have expected a "bidding-war" at that price level. A $2,260,000 home for Arlington is staggering. I'll never doubt, again, that schools matter. When Arlington went & rebuilt every elementary school & upgraded the quality of its educational offerings real estate prices took off. The new Arlington of 2018 looks nothing like it did 20 years ago.

I'm currently renting my house, but I'm tempted to move into the property myself soon because the town is so convenient. Trader Joe's & Whole Foods both on Mass Ave & what looks like a lot of room left for future real estate gains.
Yep. Newer construction East Arlington attached condos go for around $800K - $1M.

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/144665699
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/143816537
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/144722013
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/144167943
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/143996122
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/113978010
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...2/home/8404360
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/144479180
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Arlington/...home/144449117
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Old 03-12-2018, 11:56 AM
 
4,968 posts, read 4,952,919 times
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I've never been comfortable with these 2 family condos. You are essentially entering a business association with strangers. It's one thing to be involved with a large condo association & quite another to be involved one on one with another person. For one million dollars I would try & purchase a stand-alone home.
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Old 03-12-2018, 12:01 PM
 
95 posts, read 104,558 times
Reputation: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
I've never been comfortable with these 2 family condos. You are essentially entering a business association with strangers. It's one thing to be involved with a large condo association & quite another to be involved one on one with another person. For one million dollars I would try & purchase a stand-alone home.
Agreed. Detached single family was a necessity for my search. Never liked the idea of a business venture with strangers. Man, almost every one of these condos was purchased at a higher price than my detached house in the Heights, and they're all smaller.

Proximity to Alewife explains some of the prices, I think, but those condos near the Mystic River aren't walk-able to Alewife.
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Old 03-12-2018, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Chibostoncaliseattle
2,426 posts, read 1,313,431 times
Reputation: 2156
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
I've never been comfortable with these 2 family condos. You are essentially entering a business association with strangers. It's one thing to be involved with a large condo association & quite another to be involved one on one with another person. For one million dollars I would try & purchase a stand-alone home.
At that price point, I'm likely not buying in Arlington in general. As I stated, I love the town for what it is... But if I have the money, I'm looking to buy a more worthy property in Belmont/Winchester/Lexington/Concord. This is very much the reason I don't think the median SFH home will get to $1M in the coming years.

At some point, it has to cap based on what it offers vs. the upper crust towns that surround it.

Just my two cents.
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Old 03-12-2018, 12:59 PM
 
95 posts, read 104,558 times
Reputation: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
At that price point, I'm likely not buying in Arlington in general. As I stated, I love the town for what it is... But if I have the money, I'm looking to buy a more worthy property in Belmont/Winchester/Lexington/Concord. This is very much the reason I don't think the median SFH home will get to $1M in the coming years.

At some point, it has to cap based on what it offers vs. the upper crust towns that surround it.

Just my two cents.
I hear you, but I disagree. I think you're not considering the premium that many are willing to pay to have pretty good schools and really convenient commutes. I think that's why some of those condos are flying off the shelf at close to $1M. Walk to Alewife and ride the T to your cushy job at Harvard, MIT/Kendall, MGH, etc.

Not that I don't see the appeal of those towns, especially Belmont & Winchester. I'd have to think pretty hard about which town would work for me at the $1.5-$2M price point.
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