U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Massachusetts
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 11-24-2018, 04:04 AM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,637,601 times
Reputation: 1950

Advertisements

We're into 8 or 9 years of rapidly rising home prices in the Boston area. There's always risk that we're entering a bubble. I agree with others, buy where you can afford and not what you predict will appreciate.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-24-2018, 09:38 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,005 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Natick should continue to do well- Of towns with similar reputation and COL, I prefer some others, most notably Reading (both the town and the location). From an investment standpoint, you can’t go wrong with towns in close proximity to Burlington/that area of 95. Plus, Reading is a bit more cohesive, and has preserved it’s older neighborhood charm. At $330k, you should be able to afford the neighborhoods west of 28. Buying power is high in Andover right now for what you get, and to me is the nicest of the bunch. With Philips and the Andover school district, it’s a very safe long term investment.. Probabaly won’t appreciate at the same clip as Natick or Reading though. The other worth noting is Bedford.. Has skyrocketed in price.

If you really want an investment, buy a beater in Arlington or Melrose.

I prefer Natick's location by a significant margin to Reading.

Here's why:

Northern bias vs. Neutral location

The Boston area is a half circle due to the Atlantic ocean to the east. Reading is situated north of the half circle and Natick is west. The radius for both towns to downtown Boston is similar. Given a similar radius i believe west is superior due to the geometry of things. From Natick you can commute to areas north but also to areas south on 128. Areas south on 128 would be pretty terrible at rush hour from Reading. Natick gives you access to basically all the job hubs. Boston/cambridge, 128 north, 128 south, mass pike (allston/brighton, watertown, framingham), 495 boroughs area (Hopkinton, westborough, marlborough, etc) and even Worcester could be reasonable from Natick. You could actually live & work in Natick - there are lots of high paying jobs here. Here is the real estate heat map for the area: (the map above) and here is the millionaire map for massachusetts: https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...ALP/story.html

Notice the western bias of both maps. I believe areas west are more desirable due to the reasons I outlined. Natick is in a more neutral position. While Reading is biased north.

Commute to burlington
Natick is still easily commutable to the Burlington area, especially if you live in the north and/or eastern part of town. There are some nice back roads that go north south along 128 (Wellesley St/ Weston Rd) that can help beat the rush hour traffic getting you on 95 further up and help you avoid rt 9.

Commute to waltham
Natick is a better commute to Waltham. Back roads through Weston really saves a lot of time here.

Emerging job hubs
Where will the future job expansion be? The central business district of Boston is very small compared to most cities. Even if you throw in seaport and Kendall square in the mix it is still small. All of these areas have a major office space crunch right now. Rents are through the roof. Kendall Square has approached Manhattan levels for office rent. Things are more or less fully built out.

Where will the next job hub be? Will it be in a specific location or more scattered throughout the area?

There are emerging areas to the west. New allston/brighton developments, needham tripadvisor area, watertown, there is even talk of doing a massive development by riverside in Newton.

I think Natick's neutral location is better positioned to capture the gains here.

Last edited by Yac; 11-20-2020 at 02:39 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 09:58 AM
 
3,348 posts, read 1,863,240 times
Reputation: 2764
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I prefer Natick's location by a significant margin to Reading.

Here's why:

Northern bias vs. Neutral location

The Boston area is a half circle due to the Atlantic ocean to the east. Reading is situated north of the half circle and Natick is west. The radius for both towns to downtown Boston is similar. Given a similar radius i believe west is superior due to the geometry of things. From Natick you can commute to areas north but also to areas south on 128. Areas south on 128 would be pretty terrible at rush hour from Reading. Natick gives you access to basically all the job hubs. Boston/cambridge, 128 north, 128 south, mass pike (allston/brighton, watertown, framingham), 495 boroughs area (Hopkinton, westborough, marlborough, etc) and even Worcester could be reasonable from Natick. You could actually live & work in Natick - there are lots of high paying jobs here. Here is the real estate heat map for the area: (the map above) and here is the millionaire map for massachusetts: https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...ALP/story.html

Notice the western bias of both maps. I believe areas west are more desirable due to the reasons I outlined. Natick is in a more neutral position. While Reading is biased north.

Commute to burlington
Natick is still easily commutable to the Burlington area, especially if you live in the north and/or eastern part of town. There are some nice back roads that go north south along 128 (Wellesley St/ Weston Rd) that can help beat the rush hour traffic getting you on 95 further up and help you avoid rt 9.

Commute to waltham
Natick is a better commute to Waltham. Back roads through Weston really saves a lot of time here.

Emerging job hubs
Where will the future job expansion be? The central business district of Boston is very small compared to most cities. Even if you throw in seaport and Kendall square in the mix it is still small. All of these areas have a major office space crunch right now. Rents are through the roof. Kendall Square has approached Manhattan levels for office rent. Things are more or less fully built out.

Where will the next job hub be? Will it be in a specific location or more scattered throughout the area?

There are emerging areas to the west. New allston/brighton developments, needham tripadvisor area, watertown, there is even talk of doing a massive development by riverside in Newton.

I think Natick's neutral location is better positioned to capture the gains here.
Right off the bat, Reading is closer to Burlington, Woburn, and Cambridge. Massive job opportunities, and the areas I’d gamble on for future job growth outside of Seaport. Though it’s further by miles, it actually takes few minutes less to get to Waltham from Reading than Natick. I understand that backroads may give Natick a leg up from a commuters standpoint, but both are very doable. Reading is a 29 minute train ride into North Station, while I believe Natick is 45 to South.

The whole regional bias is kind of blah- I’m a MetroWest guy, and find the convenience and cohesiveness of Reading nicer than that of Natick. I think both will continue to appreciate at faster rates than other towns (especially those further out), but they’re not much different than Wakefield, Lynnfield, Bedford in that regard. The original point was that at $330k income, I’d rather live in Reading.. Natick has no equivalent of Reading’s west/southwest side IMO. I think they call it the Historic District. Hundreds of pre-WWII homes, large square lots, old trees that line the sidewalks. It’s more my speed than the new builds I continue to see pop up in Natick.

Last edited by Yac; 11-20-2020 at 02:39 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:03 AM
 
842 posts, read 555,013 times
Reputation: 893
Natick = poor mans Needham
Needham - poor mans Newton
Newton - poor mans Brookline
Brookline - poor mans Boston

This will be the relative order of declining prices in a downturn. Once you have a jobs recession, the only thing holding up the price is schools (many parents will sacrifice vacations, dining, expenses before they put their kids a in a bad school district)
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:17 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,005 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
it actually takes few minutes less to get to Waltham from Reading than Natick.
I don't believe this is true. In fact the opposite is true.

Google maps navigation estimation:
depart at: Monday 11/26/2018

From: The Green Tomato, 42 High St, Reading, MA 01867
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

8am: 28-55m
9am: 26-40m


From: 115 Oak St, Natick, MA 01760
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

8am: 20-40m
9am: 18-30m
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:31 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,005 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugelrex View Post
Natick = poor mans Needham
Needham - poor mans Newton
Newton - poor mans Brookline
Brookline - poor mans Boston

This will be the relative order of declining prices in a downturn. Once you have a jobs recession, the only thing holding up the price is schools (many parents will sacrifice vacations, dining, expenses before they put their kids a in a bad school district)
I don't think your point is that valid since you left out 90% of the other towns that would suffer more in a downturn than Natick.

Speaking of Naticks value holding up over time. Data from 2000. Look at this:

click "max" on the graph below to see median sales price over time.



Notice that all 3 of these towns performed remarkably similar looking at those graphs. The total % gain since 2000 is near identical and the trajectory of all 3 graphs is very close. All 3 towns held up VERY well during the real estate crash of 2008. All 3 towns started reaching new all time highs starting in 2013 and beyond.

Now lets take another town, Marlborough

VERY different picture in that town. That is the kind of town that got hit in the 2008 crisis. Only in the last year has it recovered to its 2005 high. Natick/Newton/Needham are all 50%+ above their 2005 high.

In conclusion, buying in Natick is just as safe as the so called "downturn immune" towns of Newton, Needham, etc.

Last edited by Yac; 11-20-2020 at 02:40 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:37 AM
 
3,348 posts, read 1,863,240 times
Reputation: 2764
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I don't believe this is true. In fact the opposite is true.

Google maps navigation estimation:
depart at: Monday 11/26/2018

From: The Green Tomato, 42 High St, Reading, MA 01867
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

8am: 28-55m
9am: 26-40m


From: 115 Oak St, Natick, MA 01760
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

8am: 20-40m
9am: 18-30m
Re-read my statement. For commuters, I understand it’s not closer (that is, during commuting hours, it takes a bit longer from Reading). Google Reading to Waltham vs. Natick to Waltham right now, in real time, with no traffic. More miles, less minutes in the case of Reading.

That doesn’t negate the fact that Reading is closer to the other job hubs, does it? You talk about Natick’s neutral position west of the city, but what job hubs really fall south of 90? To me, the best argument Natick has from a location perspective is the proximity to 495 jobs - Franklin, Hopkington, etc.

Anyways, my original recommendation should be noted again- If you really want a home to act as an investment property, buy a beater in Arlington.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:40 AM
 
3,348 posts, read 1,863,240 times
Reputation: 2764
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I don't think your point is that valid since you left out 90% of the other towns that would suffer more in a downturn than Natick.

Speaking of Naticks value holding up over time. Data from 2000. Look at this:

click "max" on the graph below to see median sales price over time.


Notice that all 3 of these towns performed remarkably similar looking at those graphs. The total % gain since 2000 is near identical and the trajectory of all 3 graphs is very close. All 3 towns held up VERY well during the real estate crash of 2008. All 3 towns started reaching new all time highs starting in 2013 and beyond.

Now lets take another town, Marlborough

VERY different picture in that town. That is the kind of town that got hit in the 2008 crisis. Only in the last year has it recovered to its 2005 high. Natick/Newton/Needham are all 50%+ above their 2005 high.

In conclusion, buying in Natick is just as safe as the so called "downturn immune" towns of Newton, Needham, etc.
My gut tells me that data matches much of Greater Boston within the 495 belt.

Aren’t you the OP posing the question? You sound more like someone who really wants to advocate for Natick, not someone who started a thread with a question. You’re like my drunk uncle at Thanksgiving- He asks me questions about cars, and then goes on to explain the answer while I’m mid-sentence.

Last edited by Yac; 11-20-2020 at 02:40 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:52 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,005 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Re-read my statement. For commuters, I understand it’s not closer (that is, during commuting hours, it takes a bit longer from Reading). Google Reading to Waltham vs. Natick to Waltham right now, in real time, with no traffic. More miles, less minutes in the case of Reading.

That doesn’t negate the fact that Reading is closer to the other job hubs, does it? You talk about Natick’s neutral position west of the city, but what job hubs really fall south of 90? To me, the best argument Natick has from a location perspective is the proximity to 495 jobs - Franklin, Hopkington, etc.

Anyways, my original recommendation should be noted again- If you really want a home to act as an investment property, buy a beater in Arlington.
Using the same locations with depart time of NOW (saturday 11/24/2018 at 11:41AM no traffic)

From: The Green Tomato, 42 High St, Reading, MA 01867
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

18 min 14.3 miles


From: 115 Oak St, Natick, MA 01760
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

16 min 9.7 miles

You are wrong again on that one.

The only job hub that Reading is closer to is Burlington/Woburn. Natick is equivalent for Bedford/Lexington. And Natick is better to Waltham and anything south of that. Natick is also better to Watertown and to Allston/Brighton. There are huge new developments there.

Natick is quicker to south station via the commuter rail. There are jobs around Copley, Yawkee, Boston landing which are <35min by train from Natick center.

As you said, Natick is within range of the 495 jobs and the Natick/Framingham jobs all of which Reading is pretty far from.

South of 90 is an opportunity area in my opinion. There is an emerging area around Tripadvisor in Needham where they are building many new luxury apartments, new offices, etc. The new Umass mt ida campus will be there, etc. That might continue to develop or it might not.. never know. If it does develop then Natick will benefit from it majorly. There are also some new developments proposed for Auburndale area of Newton. There are actually some decent companies located in the Walpole/Norwood area. Analog devices, Siemens, etc.

I agree south of 90 isn't as bustling as north of 90, but it may fill in over time.

As i said originally, Natick gives you access to pretty much every job hub in the state right now. Reading does not.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-24-2018, 10:59 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,005 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
My gut tells me that data matches much of Greater Boston within the 495 belt.

Aren’t you the OP posing the question? You sound more like someone who really wants to advocate for Natick, not someone who started a thread with a question. You’re like my drunk uncle at Thanksgiving- He asks me questions about cars, and then goes on to explain the answer while I’m mid-sentence.
The data is town specific. Don't just use your gut, actually read the page and understand the data.

My original point stands: Natick is just as "immune" as the nearby more expensive towns of Needham and Newton and will fare very well in the next real estate crash.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:




Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Massachusetts

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top