appreciation potential of buying in Natick? (Boston, Worcester: best towns, house prices, schools)

[r_p]

You cannot go wrong with Natick. It is surrounded by some very desirable towns such as Weston, Wellesley Wayland, Sherborn and Dover.

Although, if you're willing to spend ~1 million then look at Wellesley (in my opinion, the best town around Boston).

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Using the same locations with depart time of NOW (saturday 11/24/2018 at 11:41AM no traffic)

From: The Green Tomato, 42 High St, Reading, MA 01867
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

18 min 14.3 miles


From: 115 Oak St, Natick, MA 01760
To: Vistaprint, 275 Wyman St, Waltham, MA 02451

16 min 9.7 miles

You are wrong again on that one.

The only job hub that Reading is closer to is Burlington/Woburn. Natick is equivalent for Bedford/Lexington. And Natick is better to Waltham and anything south of that. Natick is also better to Watertown and to Allston/Brighton. There are huge new developments there.

Natick is quicker to south station via the commuter rail. There are jobs around Copley, Yawkee, Boston landing which are <35min by train from Natick center.

As you said, Natick is within range of the 495 jobs and the Natick/Framingham jobs all of which Reading is pretty far from.

South of 90 is an opportunity area in my opinion. There is an emerging area around Tripadvisor in Needham where they are building many new luxury apartments, new offices, etc. The new Umass mt ida campus will be there, etc. That might continue to develop or it might not.. never know. If it does develop then Natick will benefit from it majorly. There are also some new developments proposed for Auburndale area of Newton. There are actually some decent companies located in the Walpole/Norwood area. Analog devices, Siemens, etc.

I agree south of 90 isn't as bustling as north of 90, but it may fill in over time.

As i said originally, Natick gives you access to pretty much every job hub in the state right now. Reading does not.

I said google it generically from each town to Waltham, not pick a location as you so desire. Even in your example, we are talking two minutes. So the one hub Natick is closer to, its closer by 2 minutes? Hardly the neutral advantage we started out with.. As for Reading “only being closer to Burlington/Woburn”, did you somehow forget Cambridge? And Somerville? And all of that mass development on the Mystic?

It’s clear to me now that you are simply using this as a platform to advocate for Natick. But do it without false narrative at least. My suggestion is to look up school performance, look up median income, look up education attainment levels, and prior/current real estate trends and come up with your own calculation of what is deemed desirable. The aggregate desirability will be what will drive a town/make it as close to recession proof as possible. Natick has done well in the shadow of Newton, Wellesley, Needham. If I want to live along Rt 9, and can’t afford those towns, then I’ll look to Natick. It’s the beneficiary of that exact circumstance, which is a good thing as its bones and characteristics are clearly deemed more desirable than some competing towns like Ashland or Holliston or Framingham.

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by r_p

You cannot go wrong with Natick. It is surrounded by some very desirable towns such as Weston, Wellesley Wayland, Sherborn and Dover.

Although, if you're willing to spend ~1 million then look at Wellesley (in my opinion, the best town around Boston).

Wellesley is great but there is a significant disparity right now between Natick and Wellesley property values. For 1M you'd get a low end house in Wellesley. Older, smaller, and less updated. You could move literally a few streets across the town line into Natick and get a new construction teardown in Natick for 1M. Or get the 1M old wellesley house for 600k.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by panchilly

The data is town specific. Don't just use your gut, actually read the page and understand the data.

My original point stands: Natick is just as "immune" as the nearby more expensive towns of Needham and Newton and will fare very well in the next real estate crash.

Are you asking me to go through each town within 495 and review the 18 year real estate history? No, I’m good. I’d bet that Natick, Reading, Bedford, Arlington, Melrose, etc. all look similar. That is, high growth areas due to proximity to jobs and conveniences. Can you confirm for me? I’m too lazy.

Edit:

Arlington https://www.zillow.com/arlington-ma/home-values/
Reading https://www.zillow.com/reading-ma/home-values/
Natick https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/
Bedford https://www.zillow.com/bedford-ma/home-values/
Melrose https://www.zillow.com/melrose-ma/home-values/

Seems like a good comparison to me...

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by mwj119

I said google it generically from each town to Waltham, not pick a location as you so desire. Even in your example, we are talking two minutes. So the one hub Natick is closer to, its closer by 2 minutes?

Nice try. Natick is closer by up to 15 minutes during commuting times. That's significant.

You mentioned the "one" hub that Natick is closer to. Have you forgotten about the entire western part of the metro area? Natick has access to Framingham, Natick, Marlborough, Southborough, Hopkinton, Westborough, Worcester. Did you know that glassdoor has 200 open software engineer positions located in Marlborough right now? There are significant jobs out that way that Natick will always have better access to due to the neutral location.

Have you forgotten about the emerging job hubs south of 90?

Originally Posted by mwj119

As for Reading “only being closer to Burlington/Woburn”, did you somehow forget Cambridge? And Somerville? And all of that mass development on the Mystic?

Again, nice try. I lumped Cambridge and Boston in as one market. The Boston market has more jobs. There are certain areas that are *slightly* better from Reading (Cambridge, Somerville) but then there are areas that are better from Natick (the Boston locations: allston/brighton, yawkee, backbay, south station, etc) If anything i'd say Natick is a little bit better but i graded them as equal.

Btw I work in Kendall square and i'm familiar with the Reading commute. Getting to Kendall is a nightmare from almost anywhere and it's only slightly better from Reading than Natick.

[bugelrex]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Or get the 1M old wellesley house for 600k.

The price disparity is due to schools and taxes. How are these in comparison? Up and coming or getting better simply doesnt cut it for schools during a flat or down period.

Also mathworks being the major employer has a downside too. Its growth has been driven by big data social media... whose growth is slowing

In summary.. its all about the schools

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

The price disparity is due to schools and taxes. How are these in comparison? Up and coming or getting better simply doesnt cut it for schools during a flat or down period.

Also mathworks being the major employer has a downside too. Its growth has been driven by big data social media... whose growth is slowing

In summary.. its all about the schools

How do you define "up and coming". Is Needham "up and coming" compared to Newton? Is Beverly Hills "up and coming" compared to Bel Aire?

The bottom line is compared to 95% of other towns, Natick isn't "up and coming" it has been long established as a good community with premium schools. For example, it scored #19 on best school districts in Massachusetts https://www.niche.com/k12/search/bes...massachusetts/

Taxes are very good in Natick due to the large commercial tax base. Wellesley has ~ $12.00 per 1000 tax rate and natick has ~ $13.50 but the property values are significantly higher in Wellesley. The net of it is lower taxes in Natick.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Nice try. Natick is closer by up to 15 minutes during commuting times. That's significant.

You mentioned the "one" hub that Natick is closer to. Have you forgotten about the entire western part of the metro area? Natick has access to Framingham, Natick, Marlborough, Southborough, Hopkinton, Westborough, Worcester. Did you know that glassdoor has 200 open software engineer positions located in Marlborough right now? There are significant jobs out that way that Natick will always have better access to due to the neutral location.

Have you forgotten about the emerging job hubs south of 90?



Again, nice try. I lumped Cambridge and Boston in as one market. The Boston market has more jobs. There are certain areas that are *slightly* better from Reading (Cambridge, Somerville) but then there are areas that are better from Natick (the Boston locations: allston/brighton, yawkee, backbay, south station, etc) If anything i'd say Natick is a little bit better but i graded them as equal.

Btw I work in Kendall square and i'm familiar with the Reading commute. Getting to Kendall is a nightmare from almost anywhere and it's only slightly better from Reading than Natick.

Heh? You realize the differences are, at least, negligible. So your counter point of neutrality is out the window. “Nice try”.

I edited my last post to point out the teir 2 housing markets that have grown exponentially. Natick, to me, looks exactly like a lot of other towns within 495. Do you have data to suggest otherwise? What makes its growth different than any of the others? Why do you think it’s a better investment than, say, Arlington? Why is it more recession proof than Melrose?

Again, go to bat all you want for Natick. Not sure why you think it’s any different than so many other towns in Greater Boston..

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by mwj119

Heh? You realize the differences are, at least, negligible. So your counter point of neutrality is out the window. “Nice try”.

The "neutral location" argument for preferring Natick to Reading is still very much alive and well.

Summary of better commute:

Burlington/Woburn: Reading
Lexington/Bedford: tie
Waltham: Natick
495: Natick
Mass pike (defined as: Framingham, Natick, Watertown, Allston/Brighton): Natick
128 South: Natick
Boston/Cambridge: tie

What part of that don't you understand? The concept of netural location is important also for what will happen in the NEXT 10-20 years. There will be emerging job hubs in that time that we probably can't predict. But given Naticks more central location, there is a better chance that Natick will be a better commute to it vs Reading.

[CaseyB]

It sounds like you're set on Natick so I don't know why Reading is even being discussed.