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Old 11-24-2018, 01:02 PM
 
842 posts, read 555,391 times
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Panchilly,

Its easier to use numbers. Here is 2018 median prices
30 year fixed is 4.7%
Natick median 576k
Newton median 1.1m
Brookline median 1.6m

What are your predictions for 30 year fixed and medians in the above towns 15 years and 30 years?

I guess you could be advocating that natick could be on par with newton in the future? Sure, if the next facebook choose to hq in natick vs other cities
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Old 11-24-2018, 03:21 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Nice try. Natick is closer by up to 15 minutes during commuting times. That's significant.

You mentioned the "one" hub that Natick is closer to. Have you forgotten about the entire western part of the metro area? Natick has access to Framingham, Natick, Marlborough, Southborough, Hopkinton, Westborough, Worcester. Did you know that glassdoor has 200 open software engineer positions located in Marlborough right now? There are significant jobs out that way that Natick will always have better access to due to the neutral location.

Have you forgotten about the emerging job hubs south of 90?



Again, nice try. I lumped Cambridge and Boston in as one market. The Boston market has more jobs. There are certain areas that are *slightly* better from Reading (Cambridge, Somerville) but then there are areas that are better from Natick (the Boston locations: allston/brighton, yawkee, backbay, south station, etc) If anything i'd say Natick is a little bit better but i graded them as equal.

Btw I work in Kendall square and i'm familiar with the Reading commute. Getting to Kendall is a nightmare from almost anywhere and it's only slightly better from Reading than Natick.
If you like Natick so much and know so much about it, then you clearly already have an answer to your own question. The real question then is why are you asking the folks here?

I have two cousins who live in Natick. They are both homeowners. They really like the town, especially the town center. It's a cheap neighbor to Wellesley and Weston but it will never be a substitute for them.
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Old 11-24-2018, 03:38 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bugelrex View Post
Panchilly,

Its easier to use numbers. Here is 2018 median prices
30 year fixed is 4.7%
Natick median 576k
Newton median 1.1m
Brookline median 1.6m

What are your predictions for 30 year fixed and medians in the above towns 15 years and 30 years?

I guess you could be advocating that natick could be on par with newton in the future? Sure, if the next facebook choose to hq in natick vs other cities
I think you're confused. Comparing median listing prices doesn't tell you anything about how those prices change over time. The change over time in prices is what matters for an investment.

Lets look at the price growth in the past 10 years comparing Needham and Natick according to the zillow home value index

Natick
https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/ (pick single family)

November 2008 - 403k
October 2018 - 611k
Gain: 51.61%

Needham
https://www.zillow.com/needham-ma/home-values/ (pick single family)
November 2008 - 625k
October 2018 - 924k
Gain: 47.84%

The numbers reaffirm my point - Natick holds up remarkable well compared to other tier 1 towns such as Needham.

Regarding your "point" about the 30 year fixed interest rate. I am assuming you think that if 30 year fixed rates continue to go up prices will go down to balance out the monthly payment. I think your concern over this is foolish. Interest rates move in lock step with inflation expectations. Its the real interest rate that matters not the nominal one.

look how housing performed as an asset class from 1970 to 1981. Interest rates skyrocketed during that time period to over 15% . Now go look at what happened to house prices during that same period? They went up, WAY up. If your theory were true the opposite would have happened. But didn't? Gee wonder why...
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Old 11-24-2018, 03:55 PM
 
842 posts, read 555,391 times
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Panchilly,

You picked a time period which saw one of the greatest appreciation of houses in history combined with historic low interest rates.

More interesting numbers would be:
The declines that towns saw from 2005 to 2010 during last bubble. This will help predict how various towns will hold up

Many peope who bought in 1988 didnt break even until 1996...

Out of interest, tell us the percentage increase you expect in those towns in 15, 30 years.sounds like you expext another 50% in 10 years ... the last 10 years were anything but normal
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Old 11-24-2018, 04:12 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bugelrex View Post
Panchilly,

You picked a time period which saw one of the greatest appreciation of houses in history combined with historic low interest rates.

More interesting numbers would be:
The declines that towns saw from 2005 to 2010 during last bubble. This will help predict how various towns will hold up

Many peope who bought in 1988 didnt break even until 1996...

Out of interest, tell us the percentage increase you expect in those towns in 15, 30 years.sounds like you expext another 50% in 10 years ... the last 10 years were anything but normal

I already shared with you the long term graph for these towns. It shows the dip. It also shows that Natick more or less performed identical with Needham in terms of relative price movements.

The more I examine the numbers the more confident I am that Natick will among the best towns for weathering the next downturn.

Another 50% upside in the next 10 years is easily possible. I think it’ll actually be more than that to be honest.

4% gain per year for 10 years would get us to 48%. Assuming inflation of 3% that’s only a 1% real gain yearly. Inflation , I think, could easily spike to the 4-5% range in spurts if the economy stays this hot for another year or 2. After it’s all said and done I would not at all be surprised to see Boston area prices double in the next 10 years.

Last edited by Yac; 11-20-2020 at 02:40 AM..
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Old 11-24-2018, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
8,386 posts, read 12,681,434 times
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Needham was always a desirable town, Natick - not so much until very recently. That's why you are seeing such an increase in the price of homes there.
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Old 11-24-2018, 04:29 PM
 
842 posts, read 555,391 times
Reputation: 893
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I would not at all be surprised to see Boston area prices double in the next 10 years.
..folks, we are seeing the affects of legalized marijuana right here!

Btw, if amazon hq2 had picked boston, i might have agreed with you as it would have jump started hundreds of startups to the area

Last edited by bugelrex; 11-24-2018 at 04:45 PM..
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Old 11-24-2018, 05:07 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by bugelrex View Post
..folks, we are seeing the affects of legalized marijuana right here!

Btw, if amazon hq2 had picked boston, i might have agreed with you as it would have jump started hundreds of startups to the area
There are already hundreds of startups in the area.
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Old 11-24-2018, 05:35 PM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post
Needham was always a desirable town, Natick - not so much until very recently. That's why you are seeing such an increase in the price of homes there.
Natick has been desirable for at least 20 years.
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Old 11-24-2018, 08:30 PM
 
3,348 posts, read 1,864,303 times
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The summary is that the appreciation potential of Natick mirrors many towns within 495. The secret sauce is pretty glaring- Follow decent schools, proximity to conveniences, and commuter train access. Natick, as I’ve shown in my last posts, is the same story as a bunch of other towns in Greater Boston. It’s appreciation is slower than some, and faster than others.

What was the point of this thread?
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