U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Massachusetts
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 11-25-2018, 11:28 AM
 
601 posts, read 343,095 times
Reputation: 217

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
Natick is a better location but Andover is a better town (excluding location concerns).
Andover is a nicer town, yes I 100% agree. But given the better location I would expect Natick to appreciate at a faster rate. Will Andover be a better town in 20 years? I think the gap will continue to close. Natick might be the better town by then.

Btw according to the Zillow home value index in the last 10 years Natick is up ~50% while andover is up 25% half the appreciation rate.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-25-2018, 11:41 AM
 
113 posts, read 73,509 times
Reputation: 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
You are predicting an imminent recession. Do you have any data to back that up?

You are predicting the high tier of natick will not perform well in a housing recession. Again, do you have any data to back that up? According to the zillow market overview, the "top tier" in Natick actually held up pretty well. Go look at https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/ and pick "top tier"

Paying over 700k means you're dumb? Again, any data or logic to back that statement up?

I was at this open house: https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/5-W.../home/11675304

Listed or 700k went for 740k. Square footage is overstated due to finished basement. It's about 2500 sqfoot with no garage.

There were about 80 people at that open house. The redfin estimate is now 794 - were the buyers dumb?
Recessions happen approximately every 15 years. It's inevitable, if not imminent. As far as the higher tier, it's already empirical fact that houses well above the median don't do well during recessions. $700K+ is unusual, even for Natick.

With the new tax plan and higher interest rates more expensive houses will be affected most. The house you've pointed to is not a good example since it was in a hot real estate market which is now cooling down. The median price for a 3/2 per Redfin is about $600K. Substantially more than that will limit buyers, which will be reflected in a substantial decrease upon the imminent recession.

The fact that you've even made this thread means you intuit this. In any case, I'm not sure what the purpose of this thread is for. No one knows for sure. Data shows that Natick isn't that hot --
http://www.laerrealty.com/market-ins...enerate+Report

Most of the "hotness" you're referring to in regards to Natick has nothing to do with Natick and more to do with the fact that the market has been hot. For example certain houses in Revere have been up over 100% since 2012.

Last edited by brainbree; 11-25-2018 at 11:51 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 02:18 PM
 
601 posts, read 343,095 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by brainbree View Post
Recessions happen approximately every 15 years. It's inevitable, if not imminent. As far as the higher tier, it's already empirical fact that houses well above the median don't do well during recessions. $700K+ is unusual, even for Natick.

With the new tax plan and higher interest rates more expensive houses will be affected most. The house you've pointed to is not a good example since it was in a hot real estate market which is now cooling down. The median price for a 3/2 per Redfin is about $600K. Substantially more than that will limit buyers, which will be reflected in a substantial decrease upon the imminent recession.

The fact that you've even made this thread means you intuit this. In any case, I'm not sure what the purpose of this thread is for. No one knows for sure. Data shows that Natick isn't that hot --
Natick Market Data | LAER Realty Partners

Most of the "hotness" you're referring to in regards to Natick has nothing to do with Natick and more to do with the fact that the market has been hot. For example certain houses in Revere have been up over 100% since 2012.
Look at this recent sale (closed in November) https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/57-...operty-history 1.15M

The high end of Natick is actually 1M+.

Your link isn't that relevant to me to be honest. Natick only has 80 listings on the market right now which is a small sample size. You can't really look at a snapshot of listings today and compare with the snapshot from 1 year ago. There will be changes in the mix of listings which could skew the numbers one way or another when looking at PPSQF and other metrics. Zillow and Redfins model go deeper than this and solve for the mix issue.

How hot is Natick? If you define "hot" as % gain in the zillow home value index from November 2008 to November 2018 inclusive of all housing units (i.e. including condos) then guess what? Natick was the HOTTEST town in the western outside-of-128 suburbs.

western outside of 128 suburbs = outside 128, inside 495, west of 93, and west of rt 24

There are a lot of towns in that section.

Natick trounced all the ones that you would expect (like Acton, Hopkinton, Ashland, etc) but also beat out some of the more popular towns including all of:

Wellesley,
Needham (slightly),
Burlington (slightly),
Norwood,
Westwood,
Bedford
Concord,
Wayland,
Weston,
Lincoln,

What if we looked at ALL towns outside of 128 including the northern towns (like Reading) and the southern ones (like Braintree)

Guess what?

Natick just squeaked out a victory over Reading for the #1 hottest town outside of 128.

Natick = 53% gain
Reading = 49.7% gain
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 02:22 PM
 
113 posts, read 73,509 times
Reputation: 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Look at this recent sale (closed in November) https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/57-...operty-history 1.15M

The high end of Natick is actually 1M+.

Your link isn't that relevant to me to be honest. Natick only has 80 listings on the market right now which is a small sample size. You can't really look at a snapshot of listings today and compare with the snapshot from 1 year ago. There will be changes in the mix of listings which could skew the numbers one way or another when looking at PPSQF and other metrics. Zillow and Redfins model go deeper than this and solve for the mix issue.

How hot is Natick? If you define "hot" as % gain in the zillow home value index from November 2008 to November 2018 inclusive of all housing units (i.e. including condos) then guess what? Natick was the HOTTEST town in the western outside-of-128 suburbs.

western outside of 128 suburbs = outside 128, inside 495, west of 93, and west of rt 24

There are a lot of towns in that section.

Natick trounced all the ones that you would expect (like Acton, Hopkinton, Ashland, etc) but also beat out some of the more popular towns including all of:

Wellesley,
Needham (slightly),
Burlington (slightly),
Norwood,
Westwood,
Bedford
Concord,
Wayland,
Weston,
Lincoln,

What if we looked at ALL towns outside of 128 including the northern towns (like Reading) and the southern ones (like Braintree)

Guess what?

Natick just squeaked out a victory over Reading for the #1 hottest town outside of 128.

Natick = 53% gain
Reading = 49.7% gain
So in short, you ignore year after year data and show a link that shows a house closing for less than 100% of its closing price as well as all of the desirable towns, e.g. in 128... ok. Anyway, I have better things to do
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 02:26 PM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,635,917 times
Reputation: 1950
Past results do not accurately predict future gains.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 02:31 PM
 
601 posts, read 343,095 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by brainbree View Post
So in short, you ignore year after year data and show a link that shows a house closing for less than 100% of its closing price. Anyway, I have better things to do
No, silly, i do not ignore YoY data. As i explained to you, the problem is a little more sophisticated & complicated than that since the "mix" of listings could be different and it could skew the numbers depending on the exact day you compare. The data I have shown you is Natick as the #1 hottest town outside of 128 since 2008.

That house was listed at 1.19M and sold for 1.165M

It is well known that new construction at the absolute high end of the market often go for slightly less. That example was to show you that your so called upper limit of 700k is bogus and is absolutely blown out of the water by some of the new luxury builds going up.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Westwood, MA
4,226 posts, read 5,339,347 times
Reputation: 5181
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Look at this recent sale (closed in November) https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/57-...operty-history 1.15M

The high end of Natick is actually 1M+.

Your link isn't that relevant to me to be honest. Natick only has 80 listings on the market right now which is a small sample size. You can't really look at a snapshot of listings today and compare with the snapshot from 1 year ago. There will be changes in the mix of listings which could skew the numbers one way or another when looking at PPSQF and other metrics. Zillow and Redfins model go deeper than this and solve for the mix issue.

How hot is Natick? If you define "hot" as % gain in the zillow home value index from November 2008 to November 2018 inclusive of all housing units (i.e. including condos) then guess what? Natick was the HOTTEST town in the western outside-of-128 suburbs.

western outside of 128 suburbs = outside 128, inside 495, west of 93, and west of rt 24

There are a lot of towns in that section.

Natick trounced all the ones that you would expect (like Acton, Hopkinton, Ashland, etc) but also beat out some of the more popular towns including all of:

Wellesley,
Needham (slightly),
Burlington (slightly),
Norwood,
Westwood,
Bedford
Concord,
Wayland,
Weston,
Lincoln,

What if we looked at ALL towns outside of 128 including the northern towns (like Reading) and the southern ones (like Braintree)

Guess what?

Natick just squeaked out a victory over Reading for the #1 hottest town outside of 128.

Natick = 53% gain
Reading = 49.7% gain
Natick will realistically never be more expensive than Wellesley, so there are only so many years that it can appreciate significantly faster than Wellesely before it has to fall back in line.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-25-2018, 09:39 PM
 
601 posts, read 343,095 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
Natick will realistically never be more expensive than Wellesley, so there are only so many years that it can appreciate significantly faster than Wellesely before it has to fall back in line.
In the medium term (20 years) it won’t be as expensive as Wellesley. But that is ok since Wellesley is the most expensive town in the state. That means there is plenty of runway left for natick to continue its appreciation

Longer term (20+ years) as population grows the percentage of land devoted to housing the wealthiest eshelon will also grow. Natick might essentially merge in with its wealthy neighbors in the very long term. I can easily see Natick being considered “tier 1” then.

Look at what happened in Santa Clara county in Silicon Valley. Are people really comparing tiers with Sunnyvale vs Mountain View vs Los Gatos? That whole area essentially merged in as one giant tier 1 market.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-26-2018, 06:00 AM
 
54 posts, read 30,487 times
Reputation: 85
I always found Natick to be too "middle" not urban enough, not rural enough, just okay at everything. Lots of strip mall commercial rather than neighborhood gathering spots. Nice downtown, but not a lot of restaurants/activities. A mall as a tax base, but no one wants to be in that business anymore even with them transitioning from retails to other types of space (see Wegmans restaurants).

Mathworks is a huge boom for the town for sure.
New rail trail will be a big win, giving it that "lexington" active avenue.

Waltham would be even hotter if the schools caught up. That's why the high school construction drama is such an interesting story to follow. If they can ever figure that out.

I guess "the middle" appeals to more people thus is a good investment, but I thought with our growth in cities, people would either prefer a more urban environment or more rural setup, and the middle "suburbia" would be transitioned.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-26-2018, 07:09 AM
 
12,537 posts, read 14,622,342 times
Reputation: 18718
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
What will Natick be like in 10-15 years?

I'm not sure if others share my view, but it seems like Natick is one of the better buys right now. It has a good combination of location, schools, and amenities for the price. The boston/cambridge commute is reasonable - about 1hr during rush hour by car or by commuter rail. The 128 commute is better ~30min to most areas. The schools are highly rated and trending upwards. There are also several large & expanding employers located in the town such as Mathworks and Cognex. Mathworks just opened a giant new campus and plans to hire an additional 3000 workers in Natick. The amenities in the town are superb - 2 commuter rail stops, a nice town center, the golden triangle shopping area - the second largest retail district in massachusetts behind downtown crossing in Boston. The town is more or less fully built out and now developers are tearing down older homes and building much more expensive new ones.

What do others think of the appreciation potential of buying in Natick in 2018/2019?
Not sure Natick will ever be a "W" town like Wellesley/Weston where teardowns and big mansions seem to work.

BTW- look at recent sales in those hallowed "W" towns and notice sale price compared to previous sale price, not a whole lot of profits being seen. Natick seems to have a high price rush going, why would you think that is a good point in time to buy?
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:




Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Massachusetts

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top