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Old 11-26-2018, 07:54 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by airunxc View Post
I always found Natick to be too "middle" not urban enough, not rural enough, just okay at everything. Lots of strip mall commercial rather than neighborhood gathering spots. Nice downtown, but not a lot of restaurants/activities. A mall as a tax base, but no one wants to be in that business anymore even with them transitioning from retails to other types of space (see Wegmans restaurants).

Mathworks is a huge boom for the town for sure.
New rail trail will be a big win, giving it that "lexington" active avenue.

Waltham would be even hotter if the schools caught up. That's why the high school construction drama is such an interesting story to follow. If they can ever figure that out.

I guess "the middle" appeals to more people thus is a good investment, but I thought with our growth in cities, people would either prefer a more urban environment or more rural setup, and the middle "suburbia" would be transitioned.
Yup the Mall business isn't good long term - but that will be repurposed over time just as it has been with the wegmans, etc. The mall is one of if not the highest performing mall in the area so there is still plenty of life left. They'll use the space for something else. Did you know that they are planning on turning Shoppers world into a "mixed use" development with housing, new streets, and offices w/ first floor retail? They are also planning on building another apartment tower in Natick by the mall area. Many of the suburbs in the boston area are becoming more Urban. There is no choice but to do so with continuing population growth, economic growth, etc.

Boston is not new york city. The boston city limits are incredibly small compared to most cities. In many other cities, anything inside of 128 would be considered Boston. I expect the development boom in Boston/Cambridge to start spreading out around the area. The reason? Simple economics. There is more "low hanging fruit" for redevelopment in other areas now (i.e. cheaper land acquisition). The seaport was low hanging fruit 10 years ago.. not so much any more. Kendall was nothing like it is today 20 years ago.. Now it is on par with manhattan for office rents. The economics of this situation will spread that activity outward.

The question is does this new development occur in the outskirts of the central business district such as Allston Brighton, or will it be a step function all the way out to 128? The hub and spoke transit network doesn't work so well when you move away from the hub.
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Old 11-26-2018, 07:55 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
Not sure Natick will ever be a "W" town like Wellesley/Weston where teardowns and big mansions seem to work.

BTW- look at recent sales in those hallowed "W" towns and notice sale price compared to previous sale price, not a whole lot of profits being seen. Natick seems to have a high price rush going, why would you think that is a good point in time to buy?
Mind sharing some examples or data and the methodology you are using?

ZIllow has Wellesley as being up nearly 40% in the last 5 years. Considering it was one of the most expensive towns back then that's pretty good.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:49 AM
 
728 posts, read 360,708 times
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OP - looks like you already bought back in October '17 - 30% down on 900K house

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/vie...p?f=2&t=231020


why ask these questions now rather than before you bought? Are you still concerned about being house poor?... or do you have buyers remorse and trying to boost/shill the town?
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:55 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Originally Posted by sawyer2 View Post
OP - looks like you already bought back in October '17 - 30% down on 900K house

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/vie...p?f=2&t=231020


why ask these questions now rather than before you bought? Are you still concerned about being house poor?... or do you have buyers remorse and trying to boost/shill the town?
That post about being house poor was actually a joke. Didn't notice? It was a subtle jab at the extreme frugality of the boglehead forum.

Last edited by panchilly; 11-26-2018 at 10:53 AM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 10:11 AM
 
2,168 posts, read 3,877,686 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I expect the development boom in Boston/Cambridge to start spreading out around the area. The reason? Simple economics. There is more "low hanging fruit" for redevelopment in other areas now (i.e. cheaper land acquisition). The seaport was low hanging fruit 10 years ago.. not so much any more. Kendall was nothing like it is today 20 years ago.. Now it is on par with manhattan for office rents. The economics of this situation will spread that activity outward.

The question is does this new development occur in the outskirts of the central business district such as Allston Brighton, or will it be a step function all the way out to 128? The hub and spoke transit network doesn't work so well when you move away from the hub.
The recent trend toward development in the central city is a big change over the long-term trend since the 1940s and 50s of suburban development along Rt 128 and key interchange points elsewhere like Speen Street in Natick. Rt 128 has already had at least 2, maybe 3 development booms— the initial one in the ‘50s, the Massachusetts Miracle boom in the ‘80s and, I don’t know, maybe another one. Only since the Millennium turned has the real estate market in boston and Cambridge gotten so hot. It’s a mini trend, one that prioritizes walkability and proximity. Natick and Framingham have the only real potential to capture some of this in the Metro West beyond Waltham because they already have some densely developed commercial areas along the Rts 9-30-90 corridor but there’s no train access and the Speen St-Natick Mall area, while heavily developed, is totally car-centric. This can’t be easily undone and there are other areas closer to the core city that are more likely to extend the Boston-Cambridge boom. However, I think Natick and Framingham will continue to enjoy the fruit of the long-term trend of the past 70 years throughout the United States that favors automobiles and suburbs.
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Old 11-26-2018, 10:21 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by missionhill View Post
The recent trend toward development in the central city is a big change over the long-term trend since the 1940s and 50s of suburban development along Rt 128 and key interchange points elsewhere like Speen Street in Natick. Rt 128 has already had at least 2, maybe 3 development booms— the initial one in the ‘50s, the Massachusetts Miracle boom in the ‘80s and, I don’t know, maybe another one. Only since the Millennium turned has the real estate market in boston and Cambridge gotten so hot. It’s a mini trend, one that prioritizes walkability and proximity. Natick and Framingham have the only real potential to capture some of this in the Metro West beyond Waltham because they already have some densely developed commercial areas along the Rts 9-30-90 corridor but there’s no train access and the Speen St-Natick Mall area, while heavily developed, is totally car-centric. This can’t be easily undone and there are other areas closer to the core city that are more likely to extend the Boston-Cambridge boom. However, I think Natick and Framingham will continue to enjoy the fruit of the long-term trend of the past 70 years throughout the United States that favors automobiles and suburbs.
if i had to bet money on it, i'd bet that Waltham/128 will be the epicenter of the next development boom in the state.
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:35 AM
 
Location: New England
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
if i had to bet money on it, i'd bet that Waltham/128 will be the epicenter of the next development boom in the state.
I disagree. There is a severe lack of housing in that area, and the towns surrounding 128 and Waltham are very heavily NIMBY. I think this will put a damper on growth in that area.
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:37 AM
 
601 posts, read 344,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
I disagree. There is a severe lack of housing in that area, and the towns surrounding 128 and Waltham are very heavily NIMBY. I think this will put a damper on growth in that area.
Where do you think the next area will be?
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:45 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
if i had to bet money on it, i'd bet that Waltham/128 will be the epicenter of the next development boom in the state.
Yup the street my friend lives on in Waltham is being completely bought up by builders. Old houses are being leveled for giant new construction town homes. Builders just want the land. They put two town homes on one lot and can make a nice profit.
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Old 11-26-2018, 12:04 PM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,637,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Where do you think the next area will be?
Hard to say. Right now the biggest development booms are in Kendall Square Cambridge and the Seaport in Boston. It seems like the trend now is towards the development of walk-able urban areas and away from suburban ones.

I think Lower Allston will become a development epicenter once the Pike straightening project is finished. Suffolk Downs and Wonderland also have large plots of urban land that have not been developed. It is next to the blue line, but i'm not sure it's in the most desirable area. Still East Boston has seen a lot of development and gentrification recently, I could see that spreading over towards Suffolk Downs.
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