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Old 11-26-2018, 11:18 AM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
Hard to say. Right now the biggest development booms are in Kendall Square Cambridge and the Seaport in Boston. It seems like the trend now is towards the development of walk-able urban areas and away from suburban ones.

I think Lower Allston will become a development epicenter once the Pike straightening project is finished. Suffolk Downs and Wonderland also have large plots of urban land that have not been developed. It is next to the blue line, but i'm not sure it's in the most desirable area. Still East Boston has seen a lot of development and gentrification recently, I could see that spreading over towards Suffolk Downs.
Of those areas Lower Allston is the most desirable. I agree 100% that this area is prime for a development boom. The center of population in the 2000 census interestingly enough was in Natick. That is defined as the averaged coordinates of all households in mass. Developing westward would be toward the center of population while going north/east to suffolk downs would be away from it.

I think on average Suffolk downs will be a significantly worse commute for people than Allston/Brighton. Allston/Brighton is also much better connected to the core of the city and to Kendall and Harvard squares.

Allston/brighton is also already being built up. There is the huge new Boston Landing development and there is also a bunch of stuff Harvard is doing in allston.

Any development of the city westward is good for towns located in that direction including Natick.

As i have mentioned earlier in this thread, while Allston/brighton is not quite a job hub yet - i think buying somewhere where you can have access to it in the future might pay off handsomely. The neutral location of towns situated near the 128/90 intersection is prime to capture these gains.
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:26 AM
 
Location: New England
2,190 posts, read 1,596,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Of those areas Lower Allston is the most desirable. I agree 100% that this area is prime for a development boom. The center of population in the 2000 census interestingly enough was in Natick. That is defined as the averaged coordinates of all households in mass. Developing westward would be toward the center of population while going north/east to suffolk downs would be away from it.

I think on average Suffolk downs will be a significantly worse commute for people than Allston/Brighton. Allston/Brighton is also much better connected to the core of the city and to Kendall and Harvard squares.

Allston/brighton is also already being built up. There is the huge new Boston Landing development and there is also a bunch of stuff Harvard is doing in allston.

Any development of the city westward is good for towns located in that direction including Natick.

As i have mentioned earlier in this thread, while Allston/brighton is not quite a job hub yet - i think buying somewhere where you can have access to it in the future might pay off handsomely. The neutral location of towns situated near the 128/90 intersection is prime to capture these gains.
Yah I think Suffolk Downs will be more of a retail/residential hub rather then a white collar jobs hub.

But anyway, I don't think the center of MA population means much. The 824k people living in Western MA (anything west of Worcester County) will likely never commute to anything east of Worcester.
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:30 AM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysmith95 View Post
Yah I think Suffolk Downs will be more of a retail/residential hub rather then a white collar jobs hub.

But anyway, I don't think the center of MA population means much. The 824k people living in Western MA (anything west of Worcester County) will likely never commute to anything east of Worcester.
Even if you remove the people living west of worcester county, the center of population is still due west. Maybe removing those people moves it east by a few miles...

I think there is meaning there.
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Old 11-26-2018, 12:50 PM
 
3,036 posts, read 1,661,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Look at this recent sale (closed in November) https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/57-...operty-history 1.15M

The high end of Natick is actually 1M+.

Your link isn't that relevant to me to be honest. Natick only has 80 listings on the market right now which is a small sample size. You can't really look at a snapshot of listings today and compare with the snapshot from 1 year ago. There will be changes in the mix of listings which could skew the numbers one way or another when looking at PPSQF and other metrics. Zillow and Redfins model go deeper than this and solve for the mix issue.

How hot is Natick? If you define "hot" as % gain in the zillow home value index from November 2008 to November 2018 inclusive of all housing units (i.e. including condos) then guess what? Natick was the HOTTEST town in the western outside-of-128 suburbs.

western outside of 128 suburbs = outside 128, inside 495, west of 93, and west of rt 24

There are a lot of towns in that section.

Natick trounced all the ones that you would expect (like Acton, Hopkinton, Ashland, etc) but also beat out some of the more popular towns including all of:

Wellesley,
Needham (slightly),
Burlington (slightly),
Norwood,
Westwood,
Bedford
Concord,
Wayland,
Weston,
Lincoln,

What if we looked at ALL towns outside of 128 including the northern towns (like Reading) and the southern ones (like Braintree)

Guess what?

Natick just squeaked out a victory over Reading for the #1 hottest town outside of 128.

Natick = 53% gain
Reading = 49.7% gain
Fine, I'm giving in. Here are market snapshots of some comparable towns (by locale to Boston/teir of suburb/my gut feeling on growth). This compares November of 2008 to November of 2018. I'm doing any suburb that comes to mind that could be perceived in the same tier as Natick.

Bedford, MA: https://www.zillow.com/bedford-ma/home-values/
Then: $484, Now: $698, % (+/-): 31
Waltham, MA: https://www.zillow.com/waltham-ma/home-values/
Then: $375, Now: $600, % (+/-): 37.5
Reading, MA: https://www.zillow.com/reading-ma/home-values/
Then: $392, Now: $587, % (+/-): 33.5
Wakefield, MA: https://www.zillow.com/wakefield-ma/home-values/
Then: $366, Now: $543, (+/-): 32.5
Natick, MA: https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/
Then: $383, Now: $586, (+/-): 34.5
Milton, MA: https://www.zillow.com/milton-ma/home-values/
Then: $446, Now: $688, (+/-): 35
Melrose, MA: https://www.zillow.com/melrose-ma/home-values/
Then: $381, Now: $637, (+/-): 40
Burlington, MA: https://www.zillow.com/burlington-ma/home-values/
Then: $380k, Now: $580k, (+/-): 34.5
Stoneham, MA: https://www.zillow.com/stoneham-ma/home-values/
Then: $356k, Now: $543k, (+/-): 34.5
Arlington, MA: https://www.zillow.com/arlington-ma/home-values/
Then: $436, Now: $754, (+/-): 42

As we can see, growth in the Boston area has known no boundaries. Towns north, south, and west have all been huge winners since the recession kicked in full gear in 2008. As recession-proof as Boston might seem, these numbers certainly show that we are more than susceptible to downturn. What i'd be curious to see is which towns on the list took the biggest hit in 2007. Growth can be high in the last 10 years in certain sub-markets, but if that growth is simply a balancing act for pre-2007 valuation, then I'll take the market that is more stable. Andover is an example of that in my mind. It's over pre-recession values and has seen 21% organic growth, but the median home value never went below ~$500k even in 2008.

To the OP: Natick is high growth, and is well positioned for future gains. A good market to buy in for sure. But, is it better off than many other markets with similar amenities and proximity to the city? I'd argue no.
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Old 11-26-2018, 01:00 PM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Fine, I'm giving in. Here are market snapshots of some comparable towns (by locale to Boston/teir of suburb/my gut feeling on growth). This compares November of 2008 to November of 2018. I'm doing any suburb that comes to mind that could be perceived in the same tier as Natick.

Bedford, MA: https://www.zillow.com/bedford-ma/home-values/
Then: $484, Now: $698, % (+/-): 31
Waltham, MA: https://www.zillow.com/waltham-ma/home-values/
Then: $375, Now: $600, % (+/-): 37.5
Reading, MA: https://www.zillow.com/reading-ma/home-values/
Then: $392, Now: $587, % (+/-): 33.5
Wakefield, MA: https://www.zillow.com/wakefield-ma/home-values/
Then: $366, Now: $543, (+/-): 32.5
Natick, MA: https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/
Then: $383, Now: $586, (+/-): 34.5
Milton, MA: https://www.zillow.com/milton-ma/home-values/
Then: $446, Now: $688, (+/-): 35
Melrose, MA: https://www.zillow.com/melrose-ma/home-values/
Then: $381, Now: $637, (+/-): 40
Burlington, MA: https://www.zillow.com/burlington-ma/home-values/
Then: $380k, Now: $580k, (+/-): 34.5
Stoneham, MA: https://www.zillow.com/stoneham-ma/home-values/
Then: $356k, Now: $543k, (+/-): 34.5
Arlington, MA: https://www.zillow.com/arlington-ma/home-values/
Then: $436, Now: $754, (+/-): 42

As we can see, growth in the Boston area has known no boundaries. Towns north, south, and west have all been huge winners since the recession kicked in full gear in 2008. As recession-proof as Boston might seem, these numbers certainly show that we are more than susceptible to downturn. What i'd be curious to see is which towns on the list took the biggest hit in 2007. Growth can be high in the last 10 years in certain sub-markets, but if that growth is simply a balancing act for pre-2007 valuation, then I'll take the market that is more stable. Andover is an example of that in my mind. It's over pre-recession values and has seen 21% organic growth, but the median home value never went below ~$500k even in 2008.

To the OP: Natick is high growth, and is well positioned for future gains. A good market to buy in for sure. But, is it better off than many other markets with similar amenities and proximity to the city? I'd argue no.
Given your data, Natick performed the best for the outside of 128 towns. It performed on par with many inside 128 towns which is impressive.

What does your +/- represent?

Natick, MA:*https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/
Then: $383, Now: $586, (+/-): 34.5


that is a 53% gain. 383*1.53 = 586

EDIT: i see what you did. You represented the equivalent data as the percentage decrease from 2018 to 2008. Kind of the opposite way of looking at it but still correct.
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Old 11-26-2018, 01:10 PM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
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My gut is if you looked at the data for all towns in massachusetts for appreciation. You'd probably see something like this:

#1 Somerville
#2 cambridge
#3 boston (or is boston too dragged down by the less desirable parts?)
#4 arlington
#5 melrose
#6 watertown
#7 waltham
#8 newton
#9 milton
#10 natick? (might be some towns very close here) Milton and natick differed by a percentage point.

I think you would see Natick in the top 10 or near to it which is very impressive considering the eastern edge of natick is about 5 miles west of 128. Most towns outside of 128 aren't in the same ballpark of these appreciation levels.

It is the best performing town outside of 128.

Last edited by panchilly; 11-26-2018 at 01:19 PM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 01:26 PM
 
3,036 posts, read 1,661,866 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Given your data, Natick performed the best for the outside of 128 towns. It performed on par with many inside 128 towns which is impressive.

What does your +/- represent?

Natick, MA:*https://www.zillow.com/natick-ma/home-values/
Then: $383, Now: $586, (+/-): 34.5


that is a 53% gain. 383*1.53 = 586

EDIT: i see what you did. You represented the equivalent data as the percentage decrease from 2018 to 2008. Kind of the opposite way of looking at it but still correct.
Correct- Quick delta math while I'm in this meeting..
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Old 11-26-2018, 01:35 PM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Correct- Quick delta math while I'm in this meeting..
thats ok

Now that you've looked into the data, are you surprised how well Natick did? Most people I talk to are shocked to find out how well the Natick market has done.

I never said it was the best performing market or will be the best in the future. I said it was the best outside of 128 market (slightly edging Reading, Burlington, and Needham)

The best markets have clearly been Somerville/Cambridge/Arlington/Melrose.

Waltham and newton are up 60% or so i think, so beating natick by about ~10%. Arlington is up 74% i think which would be a 21% beat.

I wouldn't put Arlington in the same tier as Natick... I think it is now tier 1 or close to it.
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Old 11-26-2018, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Massachusetts & Hilton Head, SC
8,248 posts, read 12,444,868 times
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Well, you enjoy your house in Natick and let us know how it goes.

Tell me you didn't spend $900k for it, please?
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Old 11-26-2018, 02:13 PM
 
601 posts, read 327,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post
Well, you enjoy your house in Natick and let us know how it goes.

Tell me you didn't spend $900k for it, please?
I didn't spend 900, i obfuscated the details of that other post.

I spent over 700 though.

I honestly feel even at up to 1M you are safe buying in Natick. Over 1M and i'd be nervous. time will tell though. Check back in 10 years and we'll see how a 1M purchase has performed.
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