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Old 11-26-2018, 03:13 PM
 
3,348 posts, read 1,853,153 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
thats ok

Now that you've looked into the data, are you surprised how well Natick did? Most people I talk to are shocked to find out how well the Natick market has done.
I'm personally not. We had originally narrowed our search down to Andover, Reading, and Natick back in 2016. We knew there was more upside in Reading and Natick due to location and proximity to the city. And, I never thought of Natick as anything other than middle/upper class, so the prices don't surprise me in 2018.To your point, it has the intangibles.. Location, commuter access, downtown area. If anything, I am surprised that it was as low as it was in 2008.

My guess is that the growth in towns like Natick and Reading relates to the barrier of entry more than the luxury market. An entry level home in 2008 may have cost $350k, and now is more like $550k. That $200k+ uptick in the lower level housing really inflates the cost of the town as a whole.The luxury market in Reading - because I know the town well- has not seen the same type of % growth. Homes that used to sell beween $750-$1M in west Reading/Reading's historic district probabaly sell for $850k-$1.2M. The fact that you cannot find a liveable home (that's not on a main road/a tear down/on the railraod tracks) for <$500k is the real story in the last ten years.

That is probably stating the obvious, but..
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Old 11-26-2018, 03:22 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
I'm personally not. We had originally narrowed our search down to Andover, Reading, and Natick back in 2016. We knew there was more upside in Reading and Natick due to location and proximity to the city. And, I never thought of Natick as anything other than middle/upper class, so the prices don't surprise me in 2018.To your point, it has the intangibles.. Location, commuter access, downtown area. If anything, I am surprised that it was as low as it was in 2008.

My guess is that the growth in towns like Natick and Reading relates to the barrier of entry more than the luxury market. An entry level home in 2008 may have cost $350k, and now is more like $550k. That $200k+ uptick in the lower level housing really inflates the cost of the town as a whole.The luxury market in Reading - because I know the town well- has not seen the same type of % growth. Homes that used to sell beween $750-$1M in west Reading/Reading's historic district probabaly sell for $850k-$1.2M. The fact that you cannot find a liveable home (that's not on a main road/a tear down/on the railraod tracks) for <$500k is the real story in the last ten years.

That is probably stating the obvious, but..
Yeah that has happened in Natick as well. The <= 500k homes are pretty terrible. Anything <= 350k is teardown virtually guaranteed, <= 450k is either teardown or gut reno. Lot of range style homes in Natick are being gut renovated with a second level addition and put back on the market at 700+
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Old 11-26-2018, 03:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Yeah that has happened in Natick as well. The <= 500k homes are pretty terrible. Anything <= 350k is teardown virtually guaranteed, <= 450k is either teardown or gut reno. Lot of range style homes in Natick are being gut renovated with a second level addition and put back on the market at 700+
Yes I see the similarities between the two for sure. In fact, they are probably the most comparable towns north vs. west that I can think of (which is why I had compared to two from the start).

I think Natick's lux market, by and large, will be the beneficiary of large lots and some real sprawl south of downtown. I suspect that market to continue to grow in Natick for that reason.. A lot of room to build based on my understanding and recollection of the town in my searches. Of course, additional stock does not mean heightened values (often just the opposite). Because I think people want a town like Natick for conveniences and cohesiveness in the core, not to be isolated in a mansion away from the downtown/train, I'm not sure how that will play out.. I guess it can be the best of both? That's essentially what Andover is, right? Mansions to the south, and more walkable neighborhoods around the downtown/train/schools. Where Andover flourishes right now, though, is in the walkability, build type, and the commercial activity in Downtown. That will remain superior for a long while.. It's one of the gems of Boston suburbia in that way. Feels far more planned and expanded over time than Natick's core.

A bit off topic/bit of a tangent, but- Acton (which used to be a step up from Reading and Natick) adversely is trying to build up more of a core in South Acton near the train. It's always been a town/pseudo-luxury market for the intellect types who want a large yard away from the action. As we know, more buyers prefer the former than the latter in 2018. So, that entire area- Acton, Boxborough, Sudbury- Will be interesting to keep an eye on. I think young blood will come in and start to affect change.. Build up the town commons, add some nice outdoor shopping centers, etc. We are seeing that type of transformation in Westford, which seems to balance the two a bit better. Still not cohesive, and the towns location is far for city travelers, but the old and new has made Westford nicer and more relevant to me than Acton/Boxborough in 2018.

That's also why we are seeing the emergence of West Concord, which to me, might be the single best buy in Greater Boston for the money. Nice walkable core with some seriously good eats, train, and a mix of ranches, capes, new builds, and rehab neighborhoods. Fairly cohesive little area for a town that largely sprawls, and features some of it's own town amenities - parks, schools, library- yet still gets the name brand of Concord at 2/3 the price (though that's changing rapidly).

Last edited by mwj119; 11-26-2018 at 03:53 PM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 03:51 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Yes I see the similarities between the two for sure. In fact, they are probably the most comparable towns north vs. west that I can think of (which is why I had compared to two from the start).

I think Natick's lux market, by and large, will be the beneficiary of large lots and some real sprawl south of downtown. I suspect that market to continue to grow in Natick for that reason.. A lot of room to build based on my understanding and recollection of the town in my searches. But, I think people want a town like Natick for conveniences and cohesiveness in the core, not to be isolated in a mansion away from the downtown/train. Not sure how that will play out.. I guess it can be the best of both? That's essentially what Andover is, right? Mansions to the south, and more walkable neighborhoods around the downtown/train/schools. Where Andover flourishes right now, though, is in the walkability, build type, and the commercial activity in Downtown. That will remain superior for a long while.. It's one of the gems of Boston suburbia in that way. Feels far more planned and expanded over time than Natick's core.

Acton (which used to be a step up from Reading and Natick) adversely is trying to build up more of a core in South Acton near the train. It's always been a town/pseudo-luxury market for the intellect types who want a large yard away from the action. As we know, more buyers prefer the former than the latter in 2018. So, that entire area- Acton, Boxborough, Sudbury- Will be interesting to keep an eye on. I think young blood will come in and start to affect change.. Build up the town commons, add some nice outdoor shopping centers, etc. We are seeing that type of transformation in Westford, which seems to balance the two a bit better. Still not cohesive, and the towns location is far for city travelers, but the old and new has made Westford nicer and more relevant to me than Acton in 2018.

That's also why we are seeing the emergence of West Concord, which to me, might be the single best buy in Greater Boston for the money. Nice walkable core with some seriously good eats, train, and a mix of ranches, capes, new builds, and rehab neighborhoods. Fairly cohesive little area for a town that largely sprawls, and features some of it's own town amenities - parks, schools, library- yet still gets the name brand of Concord at 2/3 the price (though that's changing rapidly).
So which did you pick? Reading or Andover? They are both really nice towns. I like Reading a lot. We debated buying there as well.
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Old 11-26-2018, 04:13 PM
 
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
So which did you pick? Reading or Andover? They are both really nice towns. I like Reading a lot. We debated buying there as well.
Originally Reading, but we have since sold and are now (official as of last month) Westford residence. A quick turn gave us enough equity to pull the trigger.

Of course, I would never suggest that move unless the circumstances make sense. My job location moved from Waltham to Burlington, and I travel 75% of the week. My wife works remote, so location wasn't a concern in that way for her. With the birth of our first child, we wanted a town to balance good schools, proximity to Burlington, long term sustainable value, and the type of home we could purchase with our ~$700k budget. We have family/friends in Westford too, so aside from said circumstances, that was really the icing on the cake.

With the exception of having zero decent pizza joints (even Evivva Cucina is avg.), the town has been awesome. I suppose the ethnic food scene has made up for the lack of pizza. Weekend trips to Boston did get a lot longer, though..
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Old 11-26-2018, 04:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
I'm personally not. We had originally narrowed our search down to Andover, Reading, and Natick back in 2016. We knew there was more upside in Reading and Natick due to location and proximity to the city. And, I never thought of Natick as anything other than middle/upper class, so the prices don't surprise me in 2018.To your point, it has the intangibles.. Location, commuter access, downtown area. If anything, I am surprised that it was as low as it was in 2008.

My guess is that the growth in towns like Natick and Reading relates to the barrier of entry more than the luxury market. An entry level home in 2008 may have cost $350k, and now is more like $550k. That $200k+ uptick in the lower level housing really inflates the cost of the town as a whole.The luxury market in Reading - because I know the town well- has not seen the same type of % growth. Homes that used to sell beween $750-$1M in west Reading/Reading's historic district probabaly sell for $850k-$1.2M. The fact that you cannot find a liveable home (that's not on a main road/a tear down/on the railraod tracks) for <$500k is the real story in the last ten years.

That is probably stating the obvious, but..
One thing we've noticed here in Burlington is that people that were once set on Lexington or Winchester gasped at what $750K+ buys there now - starter ranches, Capes, and splits. Then then get a little less pretentious and realize that things aren't that bad here and that $750K gets them a pretty nice expanded and remodeled home. Those buyers then drive prices up here.

I wouldn't be surprised that Natick gets some price uptick from Wayland, Weston, Wellesley wanna-be's that can't dig that deep.
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Old 11-26-2018, 04:22 PM
 
601 posts, read 342,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119 View Post
Originally Reading, but we have since sold and are now (official as of last month) Westford residence. A quick turn gave us enough equity to pull the trigger.

Of course, I would never suggest that move unless the circumstances make sense. My job location moved from Waltham to Burlington, and I travel 75% of the week. My wife works remote, so location wasn't a concern in that way for her. With the birth of our first child, we wanted a town to balance good schools, proximity to Burlington, long term sustainable value, and the type of home we could purchase with our ~$700k budget. We have family/friends in Westford too, so aside from said circumstances, that was really the icing on the cake.

With the exception of having zero decent pizza joints (even Evivva Cucina is avg.), the town has been awesome. I suppose the ethnic food scene has made up for the lack of pizza. Weekend trips to Boston did get a lot longer, though..
I like westford. I actually grew up around that part of mass. You probably got a pretty nice house for 700k although i know westford has been hot and prices are pretty high up there actually. You have the nearby IBM and redhat offices.

700k gets you a total beater of a house right now in Arlington. At a certain point people want to actually live in a reasonably nice house so I really think these 495 towns will start to gain. Millennials will age, have kids, and realize raising a family in a $1300 sqfoot cape with tandem parking sucks. Move a few towns west and that gives you a really nice house.

A lot of the buyers of these beaters have the same plan: to live there short term, ride the appreciation wave, and trade up into an actual house to live in long term since who really wants to live in a beater forever?. I wonder if the outsized appreciation rates that the very inner towns of Arlington and Melrose have had is a bit of a mini bubble due to the population bulge in that age bracket. I wouldn't be surprised to see that correct a little and some of the 495 towns come back....

Last edited by panchilly; 11-26-2018 at 04:30 PM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 04:32 PM
 
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
I like westford. I actually grew up around that part of mass. You probably got a pretty nice house for 700k although i know westford has been hot and prices are pretty high up there actually. You have the nearby IBM and redhat offices.

700k gets you a total beater of a house right now in Arlington. At a certain point people want to actually live in a reasonably nice house so I really think these 495 towns will start to gain. Millennials will age, have kids, and realize raising a family in a $1300 sqfoot cape with tandem parking sucks. Move a few towns west and that gives you a really nice house.
Westford is kind of a tale of two towns. Center of town/east and south towards Carlisle are generally high prices. We couldn't sneak into the higher end neighborhoods in those areas. But, the northern brim areas are very affordable. Still plenty of 3 bedrooms/condos for <$500k, especially near the lake neighborhoods.

IBM, Red Hat, Juniper, Netscout all have their Northeast headquarters along 110 along with Puma's US HQ. It's not going to give us the return like Reading or Natick, that's for sure.. But, I think it will remain a top destination for those in a similar circumstance like us with enough business to give us some tax relief. 110 continues to get built up with more modern luxuries, though not enough that Wholefoods coming to town wasn't the biggest news story of the year.

Cheers, and despite the initial banter, it's been nice chatting.. I think you guys have a winner in Natick.
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Old 11-26-2018, 07:14 PM
 
12,524 posts, read 14,603,143 times
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Mind sharing some examples or data and the methodology you are using?

ZIllow has Wellesley as being up nearly 40% in the last 5 years. Considering it was one of the most expensive towns back then that's pretty good.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56616867_zpid/
Paid 4mm in 2004, sold for 3.2mm last month after being for sale since 2014. Lost over a million bucks after figuring the commissions, taxes just in the years they wanted to sell (2014-18)

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...17_rect/14_zm/
Paid 1.225 sold for 1.5......11 years later. Not sure I see 40%+

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...24_rect/17_zm/
Paid 1.575 in 2002.....sold for 1.875 after 16 years!!!!

I think the +40% numbers are skewed by new construction. Buy a tear down for 800K and sell it as a new home for 1.6 skews the numbers for a 100% appreciation but when you factor in the cost of the new construction, then deduct the commissions it is no where near that.
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Old 11-26-2018, 07:17 PM
 
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https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...53_rect/17_zm/

Bonus: Bought in 2016 for 1.525, sold 21 months later for 1.5. LOST money on the house and the commission.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/recentl...93_rect/17_zm/

Bought in 2011 for 2.537, sold in 2018 for 2.2......
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