appreciation potential of buying in Natick? (Boston, Framingham: mineral rights, real estate, rental homes)

[panchilly]

What will Natick be like in 10-15 years?

I'm not sure if others share my view, but it seems like Natick is one of the better buys right now. It has a good combination of location, schools, and amenities for the price. The boston/cambridge commute is reasonable - about 1hr during rush hour by car or by commuter rail. The 128 commute is better ~30min to most areas. The schools are highly rated and trending upwards. There are also several large & expanding employers located in the town such as Mathworks and Cognex. Mathworks just opened a giant new campus and plans to hire an additional 3000 workers in Natick. The amenities in the town are superb - 2 commuter rail stops, a nice town center, the golden triangle shopping area - the second largest retail district in massachusetts behind downtown crossing in Boston. The town is more or less fully built out and now developers are tearing down older homes and building much more expensive new ones.

What do others think of the appreciation potential of buying in Natick in 2018/2019?

[bugelrex]

I think factoring appreciation when buying a "home to live in" is a big mistake. The market will always have ups/downs, if appreciation is a major concern then its likely you are stretching it thin to buy at this time... not a good place to be

Find a home where your kids can settle in the schools and don't consider appreciation. In 15 years (when they are done with school), you will likely not loose money (when compared to renting)

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

I think factoring appreciation when buying a "home to live in" is a big mistake. The market will always have ups/downs, if appreciation is a major concern then its likely you are stretching it thin to buy at this time... not a good place to be

Find a home where your kids can settle in the schools and don't consider appreciation. In 15 years (when they are done with school), you will likely not loose money (when compared to renting)

Not factoring in projected appreciation and current value for the money would be foolish in my opinion.

I'm curious why you would think that i'm stretching given that appreciation is important to me? I'm confident we can pretty easily afford Natick... You tell me though. 330k household income w/ 1.2M net worth

[bugelrex]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Not factoring in projected appreciation and current value for the money would be foolish in my opinion.

I'm curious why you would think that i'm stretching given that appreciation is important to me? I'm confident we can pretty easily afford Natick... You tell me though. 330k household income w/ 1.2M net worth

you can definitely afford it, a home is for living. You should rely on rental homes, speculative property, stocks, business for appreciation/investments. Great job on the income and savings, you're doing everything right

If forced, I would buy in gold-plated school districts, not up-and-coming or getting-better, but ones which already have a solid reputation. These will weather the downturn relatively much better than others (but still not immune to declines)

Just basic common sense will tell you that interest rates are 'close' to historic lows and home prices are close to historic highs. Buy a long term home with 30year fixed and forget about it. There will definitely be a big dip within the next 10 years, if you don't consider appreciation when purchasing then you'll sleep well at night

[Partial Observer]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Not factoring in projected appreciation and current value for the money would be foolish in my opinion.

I'm curious why you would think that i'm stretching given that appreciation is important to me? I'm confident we can pretty easily afford Natick... You tell me though. 330k household income w/ 1.2M net worth

You probably can’t afford Natick with that profile, but you might be able to find something in Framingham. Maybe even North Framingham if you’re willing to compromise on square footage. Framingham is overdue for some serious gentrification, so your home would be a sweet notch in the ol’ portfolio in 5-10 years.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Not factoring in projected appreciation and current value for the money would be foolish in my opinion.

I'm curious why you would think that i'm stretching given that appreciation is important to me? I'm confident we can pretty easily afford Natick... You tell me though. 330k household income w/ 1.2M net worth

Pricing houses 15 years in the future is foolish. Don’t try. Price things now. If Natick works for your budget right now and you like what it has to offer it’s a great choice. Don’t fool yourself into thinking you can predict home appreciation much better than chance.

[panchilly]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Pricing houses 15 years in the future is foolish. Don’t try. Price things now. If Natick works for your budget right now and you like what it has to offer it’s a great choice. Don’t fool yourself into thinking you can predict home appreciation much better than chance.

Do you think natick will outperform rural Montana real estate in the next decade? Or is that pure market speculation and totally up to chance?

[wolfgang239]

How could anyone possibly predict that? Got any ideas what the lottery numbers will be?

Natick is a solid town, commutable to Boston with pretty good schools. That is what you should focus on.

There is a highly insignificant yet non zero chance that it will perform similarly to rural Montana. That is not what you should focus on.

[mwj119]

Originally Posted by panchilly

What will Natick be like in 10-15 years?

I'm not sure if others share my view, but it seems like Natick is one of the better buys right now. It has a good combination of location, schools, and amenities for the price. The boston/cambridge commute is reasonable - about 1hr during rush hour by car or by commuter rail. The 128 commute is better ~30min to most areas. The schools are highly rated and trending upwards. There are also several large & expanding employers located in the town such as Mathworks and Cognex. Mathworks just opened a giant new campus and plans to hire an additional 3000 workers in Natick. The amenities in the town are superb - 2 commuter rail stops, a nice town center, the golden triangle shopping area - the second largest retail district in massachusetts behind downtown crossing in Boston. The town is more or less fully built out and now developers are tearing down older homes and building much more expensive new ones.

What do others think of the appreciation potential of buying in Natick in 2018/2019?

Natick should continue to do well- Of towns with similar reputation and COL, I prefer some others, most notably Reading (both the town and the location). From an investment standpoint, you can’t go wrong with towns in close proximity to Burlington/that area of 95. Plus, Reading is a bit more cohesive, and has preserved it’s older neighborhood charm. At $330k, you should be able to afford the neighborhoods west of 28. Buying power is high in Andover right now for what you get, and to me is the nicest of the bunch. With Philips and the Andover school district, it’s a very safe long term investment.. Probabaly won’t appreciate at the same clip as Natick or Reading though. The other worth noting is Bedford.. Has skyrocketed in price.

If you really want an investment, buy a beater in Arlington or Melrose.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by panchilly

Do you think natick will outperform rural Montana real estate in the next decade? Or is that pure market speculation and totally up to chance?

It is market speculation. I doubt rural Montana has had much appreciation in the past decade and so will probably see comparatively little decline in the event of a downturn. Who knows, maybe they’ll find another shale play and mineral rights will go crazy.

I wouldn’t recommend most people speculate in either market. If you’re in need of property in rural Montana, buy there. If you’re in need of property in Metro Boston, maybe pick Natick. I’m also not saying real estate speculation is impossible, only that it is difficult. If you’re asking on random internet boards you either aren’t ready or working an angle. All the things you’ve mentioned about Natick make it a good buy now. Maybe it’s even undervalued relative to somewhere like Wellesley.