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Old 02-08-2019, 10:15 AM
 
601 posts, read 355,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by semiurbanite View Post
It's still a good proxy for job growth and location, LinkedIn Jobs has similar numbers - far more in the city.
You are looking at junk data though. You are filtering by salary but not all jobs on those platforms have a salary associated so you are reducing the result set too much...

A better way to go would be to search for specific strings where you KNOW that job pays good. Software engineers in the area, even new grads, are pretty much guaranteed to be making 100k+ even out on 495.

Search on glassdoor for "Software engineer" job string and do an exact match on the town. That is a much better proxy for where the incremental hiring is.

I don't want to do this now (since im at work) but go ahead and do it and you'll see something like the following:

Burlington - 300
waltham - 400
framingham - 100
natick - 150
westborough - 100
hopkinton - 100
marlborough - 250
lexington - 200

there are TONS of high paying positions in the suburbs right now. Tripadvisor in needham is just one example and they are paying up to 300k TC for top tier talent. You don't need to commute to Boston to get that kind of cash.


You WILL see a lot of hiring in Boston/Cambridge. Boston/Cambridge is very hot right now. But focus on the leading indicators. I'm not saying Boston/Cambridge will decay into nothingness but I do believe you'll see a bit of a silicon valley split where you have high tier urban core jobs (SF) and also high tier suburban jobs (silicon valley) like San Francisco we simply do not have the massive CBD size as Manhattan to sustain massive urban job growth. Manhattan CBD is like 10-20x the size of Boston in terms of square miles. Its no comparison. We are tiny so that development can very easily get pushed out (it already is being pushed out you just haven't noticed yet)

the leading indicators are pointing west. The example you provided (Bose at Boston Landing) reaffirmed this point. There is also the opportunity in Allston for development...

If west of the city booms and 128 surges ( it has surged time and time again throughout history) then that will be very very very good for a Natick housing investment.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:17 AM
 
Location: RI, MA, VT, WI, IL, CA, IN (that one sucked), KY
38,727 posts, read 29,411,532 times
Reputation: 36261
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post

I don't want to do this now (since im at work) but go ahead and do it and you'll see something like the following:

Burlington - 300
waltham - 400
framingham - 100
natick - 150
westborough - 100
hopkinton - 100
marlborough - 250
lexington - 200

...


Maybe if they located where people want to live and work they could fill those slots
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:24 AM
 
19,041 posts, read 10,748,124 times
Reputation: 33532
Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Puma? They are a small fry. Kendall and Seaport are rapidly reaching full build out. They will slow down soon. I don't think Suffolk Downs will be popular. There is a reason amazon didn't go for it. It's too far out of the way, especially for executives. Executives don't mind Boston/Cambridge when they live in Newton and Belmont. Suffolk downs is a PITA to get to by car.


Did you even read the article about Bose? They only have an outpost in Boston and it is in Boston Landing which is west of the city. They still have a huge office in Framingham and are hiring tons of people. Boston Landing is also pretty good commute from Natick, especially leaving at 9am. Probably take me 30-35min door to door to commute there.

Your research in job numbers is obviously flawed.

First, you need to be looking at actual jobs not just new job listings. You can look at total office square footage as a proxy for that. There are reports online.

Second, your analysis is obviously off since glassdoor has something like 400+ software engineer positions in the town of Waltham alone. Burlington has i think 300+ and lexington has 200+. Check the Bose website, i think they have something like 50 positions open in framingham right now. I think there are over 150 engineer positions listed in Framingham right now.

Mathworks (Natick isn't on your list) has 100s of open positions. All paying well over 100k.

But this kind of analysis is stupid anyway because you are ignoring thousands of existing positions and only looking at new job listings.

It kind of depends on what you do for a living. In my high tech universe, Braintree would be a problem getting to most of the jobs. Despite Millennials wanting to hang out drinking designer coffee in the city, most of the tech jobs are in the same-old, same-old places. There are still always startups at Nagog Park. There are still always a ton of jobs in Burlington/Bedford. Waltham has a ton of jobs. You might be able to land a Kendall Square job but you're hosed if it vaporizes and your other options are a soul-crushing car commute to the 495 and upper 128 belt.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:29 AM
 
19,041 posts, read 10,748,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timberline742 View Post
Maybe if they located where people want to live and work they could fill those slots

Try to convince the bean counter or the venture capitalist that you should spend 4x for the office space and 1.5x salary differential to locate in Boston. They can't even understand how anyone can't live just fine with a $1000 laptop as their work computer.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:32 AM
 
601 posts, read 355,683 times
Reputation: 219
Quote:
Originally Posted by semiurbanite View Post
It's still a good proxy for job growth and location, LinkedIn Jobs has similar numbers - far more in the city. I think the bottom line is your best odds are to be close to the city, after the city it's Waltham and Burlington but far fewer jobs and even if you got one in Burlington it's pretty far from Natick in traffic.
My house in Natick to the Salesforce.com office in Burlington is about 32 minutes if i leave at 9am. Thats not bad.

Burlington is easily commutable from Natick.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:34 AM
 
601 posts, read 355,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Try to convince the bean counter or the venture capitalist that you should spend 4x for the office space and 1.5x salary differential to locate in Boston. They can't even understand how anyone can't live just fine with a $1000 laptop as their work computer.
There are also a lot of jobs unfilled in boston and cambridge Go look.

There is a massive talent shortage.

And i find that people will largely take the job that pays the best. Most people would take the 300k at tripadvisor in NEedham over say 150k at some no name startup in "hip" cambridge.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:48 AM
 
19,041 posts, read 10,748,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
There are also a lot of jobs unfilled in boston and cambridge Go look.

There is a massive talent shortage.

And i find that people will largely take the job that pays the best. Most people would take the 300k at tripadvisor in NEedham over say 150k at some no name startup in "hip" cambridge.

Well sure. The way you fill the talent gap is to import it. Once you do the cost of living math, it's really tough to get people to relocate to metro Boston. The rental housing stock is freakin' awful and single family homes are unaffordable.


Back in the day, I had a startup shut the doors on short notice. I decided to take the "hip" Cambridge job at BBN Labs off Fresh Pond Circle for less money. I lasted 90 days and punched out to a higher paying job out in purgatory. The job wasn't "hip" so there was no point in sticking around for a pay cut. I'm a slow learner so I've done that a couple of other times over the years.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:56 AM
 
601 posts, read 355,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Well sure. The way you fill the talent gap is to import it. Once you do the cost of living math, it's really tough to get people to relocate to metro Boston. The rental housing stock is freakin' awful and single family homes are unaffordable.


Back in the day, I had a startup shut the doors on short notice. I decided to take the "hip" Cambridge job at BBN Labs off Fresh Pond Circle for less money. I lasted 90 days and punched out to a higher paying job out in purgatory. The job wasn't "hip" so there was no point in sticking around for a pay cut. I'm a slow learner so I've done that a couple of other times over the years.
Agreed.

The importing of talent is continuing at a fairly rapid pace. Lots of h1b workers. I find many of those h1b guys aren't as concerned with being hip. They aren't paying a premium to be within walking distance to a bar or an overpriced coffee shop. Lot of the h1bs are out past 128 and even past 495 in towns like Ashland. Lot of them are moving in to Acton, Littleton, and Westford. Culturally they value schools #1. I work with a lot of these guys and they are by and large very hard workers and many of them suffer through LONG commutes of 1.5+ hrs each way.

This will continue to put pressure on the housing prices throughout the area.

I haven't been around as long as you have in Boston high tech, but i've been around long enough to see how things go. I predict that just like every freaking economic cycle, things will end with a prolonged boom out on 495 for housing prices. Much of 495 will get pretty pricey and anything closer to 128 will be simply off limits.

You will have people driving in to Waltham or Burlington from far flung areas like Bellingham or Milford... or even further this time.

When people say that Natick is too far out they have no idea how bad things can get in terms of housing prices... Natick is a luxurious commute for most.
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:15 AM
 
19,041 posts, read 10,748,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Agreed.

The importing of talent is continuing at a fairly rapid pace. Lots of h1b workers. I find many of those h1b guys aren't as concerned with being hip. They aren't paying a premium to be within walking distance to a bar or an overpriced coffee shop. Lot of the h1bs are out past 128 and even past 495 in towns like Ashland. Lot of them are moving in to Acton, Littleton, and Westford. Culturally they value schools #1. I work with a lot of these guys and they are by and large very hard workers and many of them suffer through LONG commutes of 1.5+ hrs each way.

This will continue to put pressure on the housing prices throughout the area.

I haven't been around as long as you have in Boston high tech, but i've been around long enough to see how things go. I predict that just like every freaking economic cycle, things will end with a prolonged boom out on 495 for housing prices. Much of 495 will get pretty pricey and anything closer to 128 will be simply off limits.

You will have people driving in to Waltham or Burlington from far flung areas like Bellingham or Milford... or even further this time.

When people say that Natick is too far out they have no idea how bad things can get in terms of housing prices... Natick is a luxurious commute for most.

My personal very long experience with H-1B workers is very different. They're largely doing repetitive task grunt work nobody else wants to do. They're not the talent creating intellectual property. They're doing the grunt stuff you really don't need a top person for and they show up & actually do the work which is better than you'd usually get with the equivalent US worker.


When the recession eventually happens, those people out in Bellingham or who bought in the closer working class towns are going to get crushed with the property price collapse. I lived through the S&L Meltdown in 1990. The top towns didn't correct much but those other places collapsed and didn't recover for almost a decade. 1987 was just as crazy as 2019. In 2004, you couldn't give away houses in the less desirable places and everybody who had bought in the mid-1980s was massively underwater on their mortgage.
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:24 AM
 
601 posts, read 355,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
My personal very long experience with H-1B workers is very different. They're largely doing repetitive task grunt work nobody else wants to do. They're not the talent creating intellectual property. They're doing the grunt stuff you really don't need a top person for and they show up & actually do the work which is better than you'd usually get with the equivalent US worker.


When the recession eventually happens, those people out in Bellingham or who bought in the closer working class towns are going to get crushed with the property price collapse. I lived through the S&L Meltdown in 1990. The top towns didn't correct much but those other places collapsed and didn't recover for almost a decade. 1987 was just as crazy as 2019. In 2004, you couldn't give away houses in the less desirable places and everybody who had bought in the mid-1980s was massively underwater on their mortgage.
I vividly remember talking to coworkers about the late 80s boston area bubble a long time ago, probably around 2007 or 2008. One of those guys told me that condo prices PLUMMETED and single family homes held up much much better. He looked at me with a frightened face and said "never buy a condo." He said even condos in fancy areas like brookline took a hard hit.

What was your experience back then? How did Condos fare vs SFH during that crash?
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