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Old 04-08-2019, 01:46 PM
 
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Becuz of mild gentrification of some Boston neighborhoods, and overall proximity to Providence and Boston. Do you see cities like New Bedford, Fall River, Taunton, Attleboro, and even as far north as Brockton, having increasingly strong growth rates to the point where they have much larger hispanic (Dominican/Puerto Rican) and black (AA/Cape Verdean/Haitian) populations, about 30% Hispanic and 15% black within the next 10-15 years (mid 2030s)

Can we see an increase or are these cities to remain mostly ethnic white (Portuguese, Irish, Italian) for the foreseeable near future?
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Old 04-08-2019, 02:21 PM
 
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Look at the current racial makeup of those cities, I think you have your answer right there...
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Old 04-08-2019, 06:01 PM
 
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Most of those cities surpassed your targets years ago...
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Old 04-09-2019, 02:03 AM
 
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New Bedford is already 20% Hispanic. 30% wouldn’t be much of a stretch in 15 years. New Bedford has never had much southern migration African-American population. There has always been a large Cape Verdian presence. I doubt you’ll see economically displaced great migration African-Americans moving from Boston to New Bedford. The economy is too weak.
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Old 04-09-2019, 07:05 PM
 
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I've heard from Boston to Brockton is causing Brockton to fall river and new bedford.

Then again Northampton went up pushing artists to Holyoke and wast hampton
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Old 04-10-2019, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Boston
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It's already going thru that, all of Southeastern Massachusetts is. It's gotten much more rapid in the past 15 years but yes...

Blacks and Haitians tend to stay closer to Boston in Brockton Holbrook Avon Randolph Stoughton as far south as Taunton.

Hispanics and Cape Verdeans tend to go further south. Some Black Americans live in New Bedford to a much greater degree than Fall River. New Bedford has always since the days of Frederick Douglass had a small African American presence, it's grown slightly faster recently but nothing like a Brockton.

Overall minorities on the south coast and southeastern mass will likely continue to grow at a pretty fast clip due to gentrification and the willingness of those cities and some suburbs to build big apartment complexes and other multi unit housing-much more so than Metro West and even more so than cities and towns to the north of Boston.
Also educated whites do not clamor to the South coast or south shore aside from the coastal town. There are no incoming whites to replace the aging white population. Amongst you get whites there is a high mortality rate of the white population down there due to drugs/suicide other factors. The huge growth of immigration (in numbers and in its importance to our economy) to Mass coupled with gentrification Boston??...

I'd be willing to bet you've kind of put these things together subconsciously for yourself already.
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Old 04-10-2019, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Boston
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Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
I've heard from Boston to Brockton is causing Brockton to fall river and new bedford.

Then again Northampton went up pushing artists to Holyoke and wast hampton
This is true, but not because boston expats have higher income they're just used to shelling out a higher portion of their income for rent, Brocktonites aren't and they don't work in Boston so they can afford to move elsewhere when the Dorchesterians start raising the median rent.

To the OPs point... if there's one thinb that WON'T happen, these cities won't remain ethnically white for the foreseeable future. That's not really feasible given the trends nationwide, but ESPECIALLY the trends in MA and ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY, in the Gateway cities...
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Old 04-11-2019, 05:15 AM
 
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Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
This is true, but not because boston expats have higher income they're just used to shelling out a higher portion of their income for rent, Brocktonites aren't and they don't work in Boston so they can afford to move elsewhere when the Dorchesterians start raising the median rent.

To the OPs point... if there's one thinb that WON'T happen, these cities won't remain ethnically white for the foreseeable future. That's not really feasible given the trends nationwide, but ESPECIALLY the trends in MA and ESPECIALLY ESPECIALLY, in the Gateway cities...
Gentrification is a thing and I don't think any of these places are really immune to it.

I think long term as MA gets more expensive, many of the poorest people are going to leave the state because they won't really have a choice.
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Old 04-11-2019, 06:51 AM
 
Location: Boston
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Originally Posted by Dm84 View Post
Gentrification is a thing and I don't think any of these places are really immune to it.

I think long term as MA gets more expensive, many of the poorest people are going to leave the state because they won't really have a choice.
Nah, the states poor population has only been growing for almost 20 years, low income students and people re on the rise because the service jobs are more prevalent every year. More immigrants come every he at. Its not as simple as you're sttibg. If that were the case California would be full of only the rich. Gentrification will and has already slowed down because there is no lore rush of young people to cities (millennials) these places will continue a downward trajectory I see absolutely zero chance for gentrification south of Brockton. Brockton will see some reinvestment that's it.

From 2000 to now the blck and Hispanic population of the state has gone for 761,000 to 1,331,000
By your logic the Bronx should be very different than it is seeing as Manhattan has been on the gentrification wave since the 1970s. But it 's not it, it's more blck and Hispanic than ever. Same for Bridgeport. Maryland should be getting less blck and Hispanic due to DCs gentrification -but it's not.

Even in Boston for all the talk of gentrification, Boston has been gentrifying for 30 years and even just from 200 to now the black and Hispanic population has gone from 38.8% of the platoon to 43.5% of the population and grown in absolute numbers from 238k to 298k. That's just going back to 2000 let alone 1990...

It's but a certain demographic leaving a certain region for lifestyle and practical reasons. Every state north of Virginia and South of NH had been hemorrhaging whites for 20 years. Just this past year did the country as a whole see a decline in white population, the numbers and demos just aren't there especially for a place like Fall River.

In fact the argument can be made that geneticist causes more large scale diversity. Poor eople and recent arrivals rely on social networks for basic everyday functions. They can't just up and leave the state, and Gary on a different state assistance scheme?? That's a ton of work. They don't have marketable skills that would lead to a job offer out of state. They have fractured familial networks of they have family at all out of state..(Immigrants) so the people most likely to leave are the middle class which in MA is overwhelmingly white. Middle class people especially in gateway cities realize they're home value is going up and they can take the profit and their MA salary and savings ND sell that house and move to NC or GA or NH.

MASS has amongst the very the lowest black and Latino homeownership in the country (at least one of the bottom 3 states). So there are very very few blacks and Latinos reaping the benefits of the MA economy who are able to "cash out" and leave. The high rate of rentership in those groups makes them more opposed to gentrification than minorities in DC NYC or LA who have higher rates of homeownership and therefore have a segment amogst them that had much less of a qualm with gentrification.

Lastly nimbyism, stifles most interesting retail and entertainment and public transportation development in MA. To parole of means this is a drawback -especially young people. Modern day young people, people not from MA don't care about the history of Taunton and Attleboro or the parks, they want things to do, and the ability to go places and have Instagrammable experiences.

In short, I see no possibility of significant gentrification and the older ethnic white population has been diminishing for a while and will only do so at a faster rate.
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Old 04-11-2019, 01:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post

From 2000 to now the blck and Hispanic population of the state has gone for 761,000 to 1,331,000

Sure, but isn't most of the "black" inward migration African and Caribbean rather than descendants of American slavery? From my personal life experience, immigrants with a generally good work and educational ethic.
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