Is waiting for home prices to come down pointless? (Boston: houses, buying)

[bugelrex]

Warren or sanders win: at least healthcare will become free if you're poor. I think i would retire early and enjoy all the freebies now that i would have 0 income. Seriously.

Maybe the OP wouldn't even need to buy a house. I think housing is one of the freebies also promised.

[G-fused]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

1) if you think rates are rising, you haven't listened to a single Fed chair meeting. When the market slows, we will see QE2. This could fuel home prices higher; i.e., stagflation - we'll see. Either way, I don't see debt becoming appreciably more costly.

2) I'm not claiming there will be big drops, rather, I'm suggesting there is very little motivation to buy now versus 18 months. What will motivate further growth? Demand is already high, debt is already cheap, wages remain relatively flat despite high employment, and the benefits of equity gains and tax cuts have been largely captured. There are very few levers left which can motivate prices up further.

The OP's question is do you think it is pointless to wait for prices to drop. My answer is yes, what is yours?

And you are correct, I have not listened to a Fed chair meeting...I'd rather stick a fork in my eye.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by G-fused

The OP's question is do you think it is pointless to wait for prices to drop. My answer is yes, what is yours?

And you are correct, I have not listened to a Fed chair meeting...I'd rather stick a fork in my eye.

I don't know OP's debt-to-income, but regardless, the down payment and mortgage goals sound rather lofty for the northshore when even modest ranches in Lynn are going for $360k+.

So, in OP's case, I'd say "no" ... primarily because they aren't competitive buyer in the current market and, if their savings rate and wage growth is decent, it very well could outpace RE gains YoY. Additionally, if the equities markets happen to dive in 2020 (bond and precious metals markets say "maybe") OP might be able to lock lower rates when the Fed bends and goes ZIRP/QE (or worse, negative).

i.e., those not in a great position to buy now have many reasons to wait-and-see.

[mdovell]

Just move out further west. Your kids still get instate tuition at state schools. You still get all your sports on TV. I'm not really missing anything by not being close to boston. It's much easier to get to NYC. From a n investment standpoint it's better to own rental properties where they can be rented. That creates more long term relationships and better references which is important in an era of social media. Sure some might point to jobs but you are still subject to income taxes. Real estate and the stock market have much better tax structures. I made more in my Roth yesterday then I will working in the next half week. The results are the same if I live anywhere. Taxes do matter. I'll take a 15% capital gain over 31% income any day.

[huff100]

Originally Posted by Ma00

Thank you for the suggestions. I was considering getting pre approved for a loan after the holidays and seeing a realtor but I also feel like I might be wasting time if nothing is in my range. I am confused on something- first time home buyer programs, is that meant for people to put low down payments? If I put 20% would I be able to participate in this? That is something I was unclear of. I have read it is good for people for putting a low down payment but also that one could receive a grant. Thank you for any clarification on this.

My friend bought a house (with her husband) a few years ago but only placed her name on it. -He had bad credit. She put 3% down! She was able to get a first time home buyers deal of some type. I did not know you could do that until she was telling me about it. I would contact a realtor and ask them about different types of loans, etc.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

A few...
1. Negative interest rates. Check out europe
2. Stagflation as mentioned. The only practical hedge against rising prices of goods
3. Tech 3.0 in big data medical tech. A boom or breakthrough in biotech or computing that helps solve medical issues. Boston would be ground zero for this
4. Google or facebook announce hq2 in boston
5. Major earthquake in silicon valley. Forces tech to reevaluate opening offices on east coast

4. Not gonna happen. Real estate is too expensive and wouldve happened already fi it were too. Also, they saw what happened with Amazon...
5. These places arent reliant on brick and mortar

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

This said, population/migration trends will continue to apply pressure to the housing market through 2030+, so like others on this board, I am a short term bear and long term bull.

The long term trend is towards increased income & wealth stratification. The other long term trend is low population growth in the northeast corridor. I don't see where all the 5%ers come from who prop up the housing market in the less desirable places.

[mdovell]

Here’s an example. Large house, large addition South shore. 10% correction in less than six months on the market
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...57207424_zpid/

4% decline in less than two months. Same town
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...57207301_zpid/

12% decline with 13 months on market. Same town
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...87864224_zpid/

Ok south shore what about closer to boston?
Clear example of flipping here with someone getting burned. Sold for 353K a few years back, tried to sell 14 months later at 444k. 10% drop in two months. Flipper might not get even 12%. Should have invested in a blue chip https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...56627657_zpid/

Same market. Sold at 292. 14 months later tries to flip for 327K. It’s now less than what they paid. The flip is at a clear loss.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...56624403_zpid/

Same market
Tried to sell for 485K. Six months later down 17.5%
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56626344_zpid/

Ok how about closer to boston.
Ok here’s an example of someone that doesn’t know what they are doing
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...56589707_zpid/
628K a year later is 600K ok down to 550K and then back up to 590K? Been on and off the market for two years now

Same market 12% decline in four months
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56585103_zpid/

9% decline in two months same market
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...56593903_zpid/

Obviously if this didn’t sell for 250K last year what makes doubling the price and then cutting 10K worth it to buy now? https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...56583479_zpid/

28% decline in five months! The kitchen looks like something out of 2001 or Clockwork Orange, take your pick.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...56584806_zpid/

How about the 128 belt?
Different market 11% decline in five months
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...57518307_zpid/

Same market 14% decline in five months
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...57516688_zpid/

Same market 14% decline in four months
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...57516576_zpid/

Go west young man here’s Worcester

Who sells a house six weeks later for 40K less than what they bought it for? Then sells it for 10K more and then doubles in price in months?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56737727_zpid/

240K to 300K to 270K in a decade. That’s a 1% increase annually..
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...56740377_zpid/

19% drop in 27 months. 0.5% annual increase in housing value since purchase. Any blue chip is better than this.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...56743170_zpid/

Lowell. Great looking house 8% drop in 4 months.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...84519115_zpid/

3% drop in three weeks. Well what do you expect if you think you can double the price of it in just two years.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...56510951_zpid/

Jacking up a price 2x in a decade. I’m sure the upgrades are nice but double?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...56504166_zpid/

Wayy overpriced. I’d call this at maybe 350K
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56508226_zpid/

Ok high end market. Cambridge
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...23957135_zpid/
Actually I think this is underpriced. It’s nearly going for the assesment price. 10% drop in ten months.

Same thing here..this is odd
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...56427004_zpid/
If it starts selling under assessment then that brings up another can of worms.

Boston
13% drop in 13 months
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...59185829_zpid/

This one is a joke. Yeah as if it’s worth that. The photo is from google maps and blurred and on street isn’t that much better. 15% drop in two months, go figure
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...59123703_zpid/

Another overpriced. Probably worth 350K Notice the back and forth on prices. Drop raise and drop again in five months. This isn’t a thermostat
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...59106427_zpid/

Also keep in mind I did not search those in foreclosure or preforeclosure these are all normal houses on the market.

What am I trying to say in all of these?

Upward pressures on housing encourage other people to put their homes on the market regardless of if it is has the same increase in value
Flippers are back. Now this is natural and there’s nothing wrong with them...however if they make mistakes in pricing and improvements it can totally screw up market assumptions and image.
None of these homes are for rent and frankly if empty cause the rental market to increase rents. There is probably little to prevent any of these property owners from renting and making more cash flow rather than just waiting. If you cannot sell something just rent it out. Heck Perot made his billions from IBM back in the day doing just that.
Just because a town or city might be high end does not mean that ALL the properties there are. A land of mansions can have a shanty at the outskirts but they still have access to everything the town has. The old axion of “Buy the cheapest house in the best place” still applies.

If you want a house for an investment frankly it’s better to invest in rental properties for the long term. If you want a place to live there are other places to live that are cheaper...but incentives must be made to turn owners into landlords. Furthermore more work can just be telecommutted.

[yesmaybe]

ZEstimates are worthless. You have to look at actual price drops of units. And yes, even in a white hot market like Boston people can get too greedy and price it too high.

And conversely, the prospective buyers need to be able, you know, to afford it.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

The long term trend is towards increased income & wealth stratification. The other long term trend is low population growth in the northeast corridor. I don't see where all the 5%ers come from who prop up the housing market in the less desirable places.

They wont be as prevalent in Boston in the 2020s. Millennials aging out +recession + congestion