Where the heck is the governor? (prices, oil, market)

[roadstrailstris]

Originally Posted by redplum33

I agree with you, Fox, but it doesn't match up with what we've been told ("20% of infected people will require hospitalization"). As far as I know, hospitals aren't currently overloaded.

They are getting there.

[Bridge781]

Originally Posted by redplum33

With due respect, the gym thing is trivial.

It is. As is the commuter rail pass I pay for every month.

I just wonder how long I will be having to stay home.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by redplum33

I agree with you, Fox, but it doesn't match up with what we've been told ("20% of infected people will require hospitalization"). As far as I know, hospitals aren't currently overloaded.

Not yet. But the thing is, it won’t take much to put a strain on the system. I spoke to a physician who has an affiliation with my office today. She’s not overly concerned about the deadlines of the virus, but she is worried about the burden on the facilities. Her comment was that if, conservatively, 50% of the population of MA is infected, and 15% of those infected require hospitalization, that’s 350,000 or so beds. And then there is the issue of not having enough ventilators to treat an outbreak of severe respiratory illness.

On the flip side, she indicated that the mortality rate will likely be lower (significantly so) than the 2.5-5% range we are generally looking at right now. It currently only accounts for the percentage of fatal cases relative to the number of suspected/confirmed cases. Most experts agree that the there are a vast number of unconfirmed/unreported cases and even full recoveries among those who aren’t showing symptoms or are only showing minor ones. And most of those people, especially in the U.S. will likely have not sought medical attention because the symptoms are similar to so many other common ailments. If they were accounted for (even in estimates which can’t be reasonably made at the moment), the percentage of deadly cases drops significantly. But obviously they’re going to be abundantly cautious until they have a better idea of the whole picture.

[OutdoorLover]

I thought this was a nice, clear illustration from Commonwealth Magazine on the concept of "Flattening the Curve" on the rate at which new coronavirus cases appear in our system. Taking aggressive early countermeasures is actually unlikely to *stop* the propagation at this point.

But if you can significantly *slow* the propagation, then people on the bad end of things (i.e. the elderly, those with comorbidities), who need significant medical treatment to survive, will be able to receive the help they need, thereby greatly reducing total mortality. That horizontal line there indicating the max capacity of our healthcare system - cases above that line are essentially fatalities. This is why you want to listen to the CDC and the NIH, and not the political idiots.



There are a number of articles on the concept, but I liked the diagram here. See:
https://commonwealthmagazine.org/hea...think-again-2/

[redplum33]

Trump is going to be discussing this at 9:00. It was rumored that he was going to declare a national emergency in order to free up 40 billion in emergency funds, but I'm reading now that he's refusing to do so at the current time because apparently he's waiting for Kushner to research it before making a decision.

[redplum33]

The number of cases in the US is now 1237. It was 975 last night.

[roadstrailstris]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Trump is going to be discussing this at 9:00. It was rumored that he was going to declare a national emergency in order to free up 40 billion in emergency funds, but I'm reading now that he's refusing to do so at the current time because apparently he's waiting for Kushner to research it before making a decision.

Oh good, Dr. Kushner is on the case.

[Bridge781]

Its interesting that no one who has had coronavirus has come out publicly yet. I guess theyre in hiding.

[Bridge781]

Welp I stand corrected. Tom Hanks and wife have gone public announcing they have coronavirus.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

Its interesting that no one who has had coronavirus has come out publicly yet. I guess theyre in hiding.

The Norwood Town manager went public announcing he had the Coronavirus.