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Old 03-09-2021, 05:57 AM
 
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You mean mortgage rates won't be in the 2's and 3's forever?
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Old 03-09-2021, 06:22 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
Outside of the Big E or maybe Bright Nights the traffic along I91 in Mass and CT is not really an issue, certainly not as bad as 128. 91 is practically a straight line. It's faster to go from springfield to greenfield than north adams to greenfield largely because of this, straight line and federal highway vs state route.

I agree on the rates. At this point I have to wonder who isn't selling beyond this spring/summer might be in for a surprise in the fall and winter.

In CT they aren't expecting a rush back to the offices any time soon.

https://www.wwlp.com/news/connecticu...ck-to-offices/

WFH is more normalized now. This wasn't weeks or months but a year or more.The City of Hartford unlike Springfield has not required city employees to come back to the offices as of yet. If they feel more comfortable at home administration can stay home.

A 250K house will be much easier to find in central and western mass and CT. Eastern mass would be very hard to say the least. North shore, south shore, boston proper, the cape and islands etc. Might be a bit better for a condo but HOA fees can add up.

You don't know what you're talking about. Springfield is an economic wasteland. Of course there's no traffic. Hartford, on the other hand, is an economically viable place plus it's the state capital. In normal times, I-84 is a traffic jam from 7:15am to 9am and from 3pm to 6:30pm. It's not Boston bad but it's a 15 to 20 minute delay. If you're sitting in Avon, Waze is going to send you on back roads. It's going to revert to that as the world gets vaccinated.


Again, why would anyone voluntarily want to relocate to a $250k house around Springfield? It's not a desirable place to live. Starter homes are massively interest rate sensitive. The prices in the non-prime towns are going to drop considerably.
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Old 03-09-2021, 06:47 AM
 
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Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
They’re also not a very pleasant commute to Springfield. In normal times, Hartford has a rush hour so you’d be taking back roads to avoid it.

Anyways, this all diverges from the $250k house since houses in the gold plated Hartford suburbs cost more than that and property taxes are ugly.
Even with "ugly" CT prop taxes, the desirable 'burbs are still quite accessible given Hartford median incomes.

While it wasn't clear, the intent of my post was to suggest Longmeadow has very little catalyst for future growth for the reasons you outline. Springfield's economy is objectively trash and Hartford's economy won't elevate Longmeadow valuations when the commute is poor (at best) and the closer in CT 'burbs are still accessible.

We're not talking a COL differential like Worcester county vs Middlesex county where home valuations may vary $300-400K+ and force buyers into extended commutes. Median home values between the better CT 'burbs and Longmeadow are more or less equal and, thanks to Longmeadow's high mill rate, CT's absurd property taxes don't create that much of a COL differential.
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Old 03-09-2021, 07:48 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Shrewsburried View Post
Even with "ugly" CT prop taxes, the desirable 'burbs are still quite accessible given Hartford median incomes.

While it wasn't clear, the intent of my post was to suggest Longmeadow has very little catalyst for future growth for the reasons you outline. Springfield's economy is objectively trash and Hartford's economy won't elevate Longmeadow valuations when the commute is poor (at best) and the closer in CT 'burbs are still accessible.

We're not talking a COL differential like Worcester county vs Middlesex county where home valuations may vary $300-400K+ and force buyers into extended commutes. Median home values between the better CT 'burbs and Longmeadow are more or less equal and, thanks to Longmeadow's high mill rate, CT's absurd property taxes don't create that much of a COL differential.

We're on the same page. Unless you have a Lamborghini collection where Prop 2 1/2 makes a big difference, apples vs apples ownership costs are similar between Longmeadow and the gold plated Hartford 'burbs. If you can telecommute 100% and declare where you live as your place of work, the math changes a bit for high income people. The Massachusetts flat income tax really helps for 6 figure incomes. Similar to where I've owned a place in Vermont for 28 years but wouldn't ever dream of declaring residence there.



Being charitable, if you want to buy into a strong Massachusetts public school system as a telecommuter, Longmeadow is a pretty cost-effective way to do it. You can easily live next to a failed city and pretty much never set foot in it. From Longmeadow, you can use the big box stores in Enfield for retail. With the whole country to pick from, it wouldn't be on my list but I imagine it would work for some people.
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Old 03-09-2021, 08:37 AM
 
7,924 posts, read 7,814,489 times
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Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
You don't know what you're talking about. Springfield is an economic wasteland. Of course there's no traffic. Hartford, on the other hand, is an economically viable place plus it's the state capital. In normal times, I-84 is a traffic jam from 7:15am to 9am and from 3pm to 6:30pm. It's not Boston bad but it's a 15 to 20 minute delay. If you're sitting in Avon, Waze is going to send you on back roads. It's going to revert to that as the world gets vaccinated.


Again, why would anyone voluntarily want to relocate to a $250k house around Springfield? It's not a desirable place to live. Starter homes are massively interest rate sensitive. The prices in the non-prime towns are going to drop considerably.
if it's an economic wasteland why would any businesses or people be there

I'm sorry but what you are stating lacks and actual empirical evidence at this point. Mass Mutual pulled out of CT and moved the jobs to springfield. MGM did open up, Baystate, Mercy and Shriners are in the city, TD Bank is also located there and a ton of lawfirms due to the courthouses. Legal, medical, insurance etc. Same as many other places.

Hartford is in financial bankruptcy (state receivership. Springfield was 15 years ago, Brockton about 30 years ago and Chelsea about 20 years ago and Lawrence until recently) and CT as a whole is easily decades if not generations behind Mass. There's no prop 2 1/2 in CT. That means taxes can pretty much go up. One of the biggest tax increases in US history was in bridgeport in the 90's. Although I live in CT now I still do a fair amount in Mass. Sales taxes and fuel are cheaper. Even on the facebook groups of my town people talk about the lack of grocery stores in Tolland County and they go to the walmart on boston road in springfield.

The traffic even in Hartford is nothing compared to 128. From the south shore to lexington where I worked it would be 90 minutes each way. If I left after 4pm it would be two hours home and if it was after 4pm on a friday it would be THREE hours home. Coworkers told me it was so bad they'd just go out for dinner and it should be done afterward. 15-20 minutes is nothing compared to three hours on 128.

yes prices are interest rate sensitive but that's also why some might have more than one home. I don't know that many in eastern mass that have multiple homes or bought houses in their 20's or 30's by themselves. I have known many people that can do that in western mass. Lower property prices also attract smaller businesses. I see much more (even with covid) small businesses in western mass and ct vs eastern. CVS and Dunkin donuts isn't exactly economic development. I grew up on the south shore and from the 90's onward I saw a gradual exodus of small businesses. Increases in housing values is great but it came at the loss of much of the community.

https://tinyurl.com/4ajyhcee

There's literally dozens if not well over a hundred homes sold in springfield of 250K+ so frankly evidence isn't on your side.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...71646207_zpid/
sold january at 280K

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...93586916_zpid/
sold december 340k

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...56219196_zpid/
Sold July 487K (prior sale 2012 for 32K )

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56229249_zpid/
sold february half a million. Love the brick

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...56203383_zpid/
new home 340K - this is what new construction looks like in the city. They aren't really making new lower ended homes.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...56212301_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...6235049_zpid/?
Sold 320K love the stained glass.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...56228565_zpid/
sold august 370k

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...56216218_zpid/
Sold 215K 15K above asking price in less than six weeks of listing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...56200524_zpid/
Sold a few years ago and went up another 17k since

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...56219185_zpid/
Sold for 150K and flipped in nine months for almost double

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...6226324_zpid/?
240k last september...is that bidet?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...56179996_zpid/
Holyoke. two months to sell. Sells for 7k above asking

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...56175257_zpid/
holyoke sold for 33% above what it was five years ago

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...6200322_zpid/?
45k house turned 225K six years later. Assessment is close to 200K. This is an example of what has happened all over the city. It didn't exactly reach the news but MGM pretty much caused a number of businesses and residential property to upgrade. Flipping is a real thing and it's all over the place.

For longmeadow I don't think 250K will get you much. try 325K or higher.

I get it you say the city is run down but to be frank since the 2011 tornado it pretty much woke the sleepy place up. Much of western mass has consolidated to the area and hampshire county. Franklin and Berkshire county add up to about 200K and as things decline there they are apt to get closer to springfield.
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Old 03-09-2021, 10:05 AM
 
24,559 posts, read 18,259,472 times
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"Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience."
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Old 03-09-2021, 10:24 AM
 
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You want examples I give you examples. Attempting to insult me doesn't help your argument.

"Again, why would anyone voluntarily want to relocate to a $250k house around Springfield? It's not a desirable place to live."

Obviously someone wants to live there or else these homes wouldn't have been on the market and sold. Game, set, match
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Old 03-09-2021, 10:57 AM
 
3,808 posts, read 3,139,335 times
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Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
Obviously someone wants to live there or else these homes wouldn't have been on the market and sold. Game, set, match
There is a difference between 'want' and 'need'.
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Old 03-09-2021, 12:14 PM
 
7,924 posts, read 7,814,489 times
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Originally Posted by Shrewsburried View Post
There is a difference between 'want' and 'need'.
True but needs have more desire over wants. If we all just wanted basic shelter we could live in Amish country. People obviously like living near things and frankly if the homes I showed examples for were 200K plus why weren't they 100k? We're seeing significant housing demand everywhere. People leaving Boston (which is still going up) went to other areas and it went up there as well. If people can't travel as much they have to spend more time home and that might mean doing more upgrades/updates. That can drive up values even without putting a house on the market. Not everything is seen from the outside. I've seen examples like the old Popeye cartoons where a pup tent on the outside is a palace on he inside.
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Old 03-09-2021, 12:26 PM
 
23,561 posts, read 18,707,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdovell View Post
True but needs have more desire over wants. If we all just wanted basic shelter we could live in Amish country. People obviously like living near things and frankly if the homes I showed examples for were 200K plus why weren't they 100k? We're seeing significant housing demand everywhere. People leaving Boston (which is still going up) went to other areas and it went up there as well. If people can't travel as much they have to spend more time home and that might mean doing more upgrades/updates. That can drive up values even without putting a house on the market. Not everything is seen from the outside. I've seen examples like the old Popeye cartoons where a pup tent on the outside is a palace on he inside.
Your example of retirees with roots in the area, who were already there, is a valid factor and they have a legitimate reason for wanting to stay. But let's be honest here, nobody is relocating from elsewhere to Greater Springfield by choice. Like Brockton, it's a last resort kind of place that people only move to when forced. "People wanting to move from Boston to Brockton", lol dream on.
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