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Old 04-08-2021, 02:10 AM
 
Location: Pacific Northwest
2,778 posts, read 2,966,307 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
In 2021? Yea I think it's likely. The median age here is 39... There are millennials in the workforce. Anecdotally it would seem people leave MA as their kids grow older due to the cost and lack of space. Unless they're poor or relatively wealthy.

Metro Boston has that constantly shrinking middle-class conundrum. It's so predictable what will come next but no one has the political will to make the upper classes uncomfortable. Sadly, a rise in taxation or interest rates is all that can stem this tide. The Millionaires Tax would be nice.

If we wanted less growth and cheaper homes we need to look no further than RI CT NJ NY and to a lesser extent MD. If we wanted to grow at a more manageable rate we could, via increased property tax (we still have room to spare in between us and our competitor states) a graduated income tax, and/or a millionaire's tax. But we have a Republican as Governor.... so the free market 'will prevail' until it doesn't, because the free market has resulted in an outmigration and economic inequities that cost taxpayers in the end.

So I'll watch this slow burn from afar.
You need to increase capital gains and estate/death taxes if you want to really hit the truly rich. Graduated income taxes just end up hitting the upper middle class who still have to work for a living and gets a W2. Since America is not an aristocracy, there is a strong argument for a high death tax. Free to pursue happiness for your lifetime, no need to perpetuate for 10 lifetimes, especially since the offspring are growing up with incredible resources. This will also put more skin on even the very rich for a sustainable system.
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Old 04-08-2021, 06:19 AM
 
348 posts, read 279,942 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
here comes the implosion.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/...ousing-market/

For would-be sellers, higher prices are not necessarily the financial bonanza they might first appear to be. You have to live somewhere, after all, and unless the plan is to downsize dramatically, or leave Greater Boston altogether for a less-expensive destination, gains from selling the old house will likely be gobbled up by the new one.

Together, these dynamics are exacerbating a supply-and-demand imbalance that has long plagued the region’s housing market, a problem magnified by the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The market is just frozen,” said Dino Confalone, a Cambridge real estate agent who serves as president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. “That’s the word I keep thinking of.”

“If you’re cashing out, you’re golden,” said Jim Major, an agent with Lamacchia Realty in Woburn. “But if you’re looking to make that buy-sell move, it’s very, very intimidating right now.”

That has people who might have sold choosing instead to stay put, like Courtney Porcella and her husband, Jeffrey Cyr. A few years ago, they penciled in a move for spring 2021. They planned to sell the cozy Cape they bought in Salem five years ago, trading up to a larger space. But Porcella has been browsing for homes north of Boston recently, and doesn’t like what she’s seen. Or rather, what she hasn’t seen.

“The lack of inventory is a real factor. For us to gain 400 square feet we’d have to spend about $250,000 more than we can get for our house,” she said. “It doesn’t really make sense.”


As we've started to see already... MA will suffer the California-exodus issue as it becomes the 2nd most expensive state in the nation behind CA. Compounded with the other push factors every other northeastern state faces. Its only saving grace right now is the strong job market. But thats a big saving grace.

Physical and social mobility is sorely lacking.

the roots of this spring’s supply-demand problems long predate the COVID-19 pandemic, said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com.

Greater Boston has a demographic bulge of people hitting their early 30s, which are traditionally prime home-buying years, Ratiu notes. But housing construction in the region ― particularly for suburban single-family homes and townhouses ― hasn’t kept up with demand in years. Only about one-third of the new housing permitted last year in Greater Boston was for single-family homes, according to Census Bureau data, down from half in 2005. And much of what is available sits at the high end of the market.

“We have a generational wave coming that’s even larger than the baby boomers and at the same time we’re mostly building premium and luxury products,” Ratiu said.

If the Boston area does not build enough new housing, price increases will solve the supply demand problem regardless. The real question is whether people desire some semblance of broad housing affordability.
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:12 AM
 
23,376 posts, read 15,167,300 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstatus View Post
If the Boston area does not build enough new housing, price increases will solve the supply demand problem regardless. The real question is whether people desire some semblance of broad housing affordability.
You can solve it by significantly upgrading commuter rail. If there is frequent express service from the 495 belt to North, Back Bay, and South Stations with infinite parking, you open up a huge housing supply and supply of buildable land.
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Baltimore
18,677 posts, read 9,040,502 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstatus View Post
If the Boston area does not build enough new housing, price increases will solve the supply demand problem regardless. The real question is whether people desire some semblance of broad housing affordability.
To “solve the supply demand problem” will include making the region less competitive and slowly economic-one way or the other. The laissez-faire is the lazier and more harmful approach IMO because it chooses not to make any investments(sorely needed) in facilitating growth in a more efficient way.

Population growth in MA is already down to a trickle (lost people 2018-2019) and prices aren't much better now. What we are shifting to now is a market where people like Courtney Portella and Jefferey Cyr are stuck in their homes -limiting family expansion (read:natural growth) as well as social mobility (read: moving from Salem to Reading).

Keeping people in smaller homes and interfering with their family planning is always going to be a push factor because they're serious QOL issues.
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:21 AM
 
10,253 posts, read 4,286,321 times
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I wonder how small their home in Salem actually is. My guess is that it's a 3 bedroom. They can still have 2 kids and each kid can have their own room. If it's someone's dream to have 4 or 5 kids then they might need to move out of MA. I don't think the current housing marketing is stopping people from having kids. My house is a 4 bedroom house, I have 2 kids and I don't want anymore. I think costs of housing and life in general and two people needing to work is probably attributing to the number of kids people have. People also have kids later in life because that's just the way it seems to be now and it attributes them to having fewer kids. People want to be financially set in their life and career to have one or two kids these days.

Many older people grew up sharing a bedroom with multiple siblings. Somewhere around the 70s that seemed to change and people needed their kids to have their own room. It's now very rare for siblings to share bedrooms. Maybe that will become a thing again ?
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:30 AM
 
14,458 posts, read 17,604,786 times
Reputation: 19371
Quote:
Originally Posted by msRB311 View Post
It's now very rare for siblings to share bedrooms. Maybe that will become a thing again ?

It is? I know quite a few families with same sex, same age kids sharing a bedroom still. My two oldest boys share a room and I don't think they would have it any other way. It's a good thing too because we only have a 3BR.

Both my wife and I grew up in a family of 3 and 4 respectively with 1 bathroom between everyone and maybe 1500 sf total. Not having privacy growing up was just normal to us.

Then again maybe that's why I hated the idea of having a roommate in my 20's.

Last edited by BostonMike7; 04-08-2021 at 08:40 AM..
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:48 AM
 
10,253 posts, read 4,286,321 times
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Default re

Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonMike7 View Post
It is? I know quite a few families with same sex, same age kids sharing a bedroom still. My two oldest boys share a room and I don't think they would have it any other way. It's a good thing too because we only have a 3BR.

Both my wife and I grew up in a family of 3 and 4 respectively with 1 bathroom between everyone and maybe 1500 sf total. Not having privacy growing up was just normal to us.

Then again maybe that's why I hated the idea of having a roommate in my 20's.
Ok maybe it's still a thing then. I didn't think it was, particularly if a family has 2 kids as many do. I had my own room growing up and most of my friends/cousins did as well. My parents however shared rooms with siblings. I dont think it's a big deal but sometimes I think people get it in their head that they need more space. One family i know has 1 kid in quincy. I dont think they'll be having many more as they did IVF with the one they have but they felt they needed more room for the 3 of them and moved to a bigger place in Randolph. They were living right across the st from the water in quincy so...the move to randolph just for a bigger house seemed like a downgrade to me. People have different needs/wants though.
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:53 AM
 
10,253 posts, read 4,286,321 times
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'A woman in her late 40s answered our ad saying she was looking for an affordable place to live during the week for her job in Boston but she would go home on weekends to her husband and stepkids in Springfield. She was an executive at a local institution whose name you would know and her husband was some kind of pharma sales guy, so it as reasonable for her to have a crash pad. Turns out she also had a raging cocaine habit. One day, her husband (an ex cop) showed up at the house screaming at my 25 year old roommate and I (same age) saying that we had been stealing from her. Turns out she made up a whole story about where all that cocaine money was going. She ended up walking out right before the first of the next month, leaving two people who probably didn't make 60K between us on the hook for her share of the rent and 2 months of utilities until we could find a replacement.'

Wow at this story. To me that seems really weird that a grown married person with children would want their own place to share with roomates they didn't know during the week...my red flags would be up for sure. Sounds like maybe she was in an abusive relationship or she really just wanted to do her coke in peace. I had a good laugh at some of the other ones.

I never had that bad of an experience with roomates. I moved in with a good friend which ended up not being a good idea...lasted 3 years and then it went bad. She thought I was the cleaning lady and that i would pay the full rent every month and she could take her time getting me her share. We also had oil for heat and she would blast the heat and didnt seem to care how much it cost. She'd leave dirty dishes piled in the sink. Oh well, those days are over.
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:18 AM
 
Location: The ghetto
13,215 posts, read 6,164,467 times
Reputation: 12284
Quote:
Originally Posted by msRB311 View Post
Many older people grew up sharing a bedroom with multiple siblings. Somewhere around the 70s that seemed to change and people needed their kids to have their own room. It's now very rare for siblings to share bedrooms. Maybe that will become a thing again ?

In Central Falls, RI, it's not uncommon for 3 families to be living in a 3 bedroom apartment. An entire family per bedroom. Poor people don't have a choice.
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:23 AM
 
19,777 posts, read 14,814,999 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redplum33 View Post
In Central Falls, RI, it's not uncommon for 3 families to be living in a 3 bedroom apartment. An entire family per bedroom. Poor people don't have a choice.

Chelsea too.
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