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Old 06-23-2021, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Needham, MA
8,524 posts, read 13,898,586 times
Reputation: 7908

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Quote:
Originally Posted by msRB311 View Post
Right. Almost feels like 1 million is becoming an average priced home these days. Strange.
$1M is the average price in many towns. A number of towns have an average price of over $1M. Your dollar just doesn't go as far as it once did and that's even before the recent run up in values.

Quote:
Originally Posted by audemars View Post
I'd agree with that - the Weston market is weird right now. Everything under $2mm goes contingent immediately and there's a huge glut of supply closer to $4mm. It feels like most of the under $2mm houses are knocked down to build $4mm houses, which don't sell well. My theory for that is in that ballpark, people want custom and most foreign buyers insist on new.

Source: Looking out my window watching two teardowns being replaced as I type this
When you get to $4M there's a very small percentage of the population that has that kind of money. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these developers in Weston are misjudging the amount of demand for houses at that price point. Eventually they'll figure it out and building at that price point will grind to a halt.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yesmaybe View Post
I guess it's not a loss if you never sell. But finding people to buy the property at these valuations would be harder obviously.
People were saying the same thing when prices were getting run up at the end of the 90's and again in the early part of the 2000's pre-Great Recession and prices are far higher now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by audemars View Post
You'll likely get back your $2mm+ when you sell in the better town, but you'll never get back what you paid in tuition.
It's always a good idea to avoid being the most expensive house in town. You don't want to spend $2M on a house in Marlborough or Framingham just the same as you don't want to spend $6M on a house in Needham.

Buy what other people want and you'll have an easier time selling it down the road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by msRB311 View Post
Some people simply have the money to live in a top tier town AND send their kids to private school. I know quite a few people in Hingham and Norwell who send their kids to Derby and people in Needham and Wellesley who send their kids to tenacres. I can understand sending kids to private school in middle school...but I'm not sure the education at Derby is that much greater in elementary school than it would be at a hingham public school. It's over 30k for grades 1-3. Tenacre costs even more.

It's kind of sad that these private school people take up space in a town that someone would love to get into to actually use the public schools for their kids...but this is the world we live in i guess.
There's a significant percentage of families in Weston that send their kids to private school and that town is far more expensive than Hingham or Norwell.

Some people are insistent on private school typically for non-financial reasons (religious, legacy, etc.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Shudra View Post
MA businesses would lose out on a lot of talent and money. No way I'd stay in the area if hosing prices only go up from where they are now, and that decision would no doubt be easier for someone who didn't grow up here.
It's not a question of if they're going to go up. It's a question of how much. Over the long haul, real estate prices have always gone up. People find a way to keep buying. Also as already said, the tech companies really want fresh graduates who are willing to cram themselves into an apartment with a bunch of their buddies. Some of them will move on to other areas of the country while others will climb the ladder and have sufficient income to stick around.
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Old 06-23-2021, 09:14 PM
 
Location: Medfid
6,774 posts, read 5,911,819 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikePRU View Post
Some of them will move on to other areas of the country while others will climb the ladder and have sufficient income to stick around.
Why would they opt to climb a wooden ladder with plenty of splinters sticking out from the bottom rungs when they could climb a smooth, durable, metal ladder elsewhere in the country? Boston in 2021 is barely worth the current price tag let alone a higher one.

Last edited by Boston Shudra; 06-23-2021 at 09:28 PM..
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Old 06-23-2021, 10:52 PM
 
1,204 posts, read 1,206,598 times
Reputation: 839
If you’re in the $700-$800K range now, you’re still in a pretty good spot. If you’re in that range and have patience you can still have a good selection of houses in Waltham. Although you could probably pick up a more attractive house in Newton or Watertown for the same price if you hunt and again have patience.

The diamond in the roughs are the single family homes $500K or lower. You have to have extreme patience and heck maybe just good old fashioned luck to pick up much that is decent in that range. Heck even $600K and under is getting to be a challenge. You’ll find some things, but most of the cheaper inventory is in the Lakeview neighborhood which true to the name has flooding issues. Plus a rat problem.
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Old 06-24-2021, 04:41 AM
 
Location: Westwood, MA
5,037 posts, read 6,868,020 times
Reputation: 5960
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Shudra View Post
Why would they opt to climb a wooden ladder with plenty of splinters sticking out from the bottom rungs when they could climb a smooth, durable, metal ladder elsewhere in the country? Boston in 2021 is barely worth the current price tag let alone a higher one.
Jobs. It’s always about jobs. In a lot of cases it isn’t Boston vs Houston or Minneapolis. It’s Boston vs SF. As crazy as it is here, it’s worse there. People haven’t started commuting in from Springfield yet.

Why would someone who could find equivalent work in a much cheaper metro live here? The honest answer is that most probably won’t. So they leave. The problem is that, even with all those people that choose to leave, enough come here that population isn’t declining. And, since the people who move here tend to be the ones getting paid more, now you’ve shifted the median higher.

The hope is that eventually the cycle slows and reverses trend. The problem is that there isn't compelling evidence that this is always the case. We know from the Bay Area example that things can get a lot crazier. Having lived in the Bay Area and running into a few people that moved here from there, it is STILL a relative bargain, especially once you factor in how much better the public schools are here.

Last edited by jayrandom; 06-24-2021 at 05:09 AM..
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Old 06-24-2021, 05:53 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,411 posts, read 1,286,435 times
Reputation: 2086
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Shudra View Post
Why would they opt to climb a wooden ladder with plenty of splinters sticking out from the bottom rungs when they could climb a smooth, durable, metal ladder elsewhere in the country? Boston in 2021 is barely worth the current price tag let alone a higher one.
Because some people like it here? For many, it’s not about how much space for how little money they can get. Lots find it’s worth the price tag to be here, but that doesn’t mean everyone will, and that’s fine.
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Old 06-24-2021, 06:03 AM
 
1,501 posts, read 1,088,627 times
Reputation: 717
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Shudra View Post
Why would they opt to climb a wooden ladder with plenty of splinters sticking out from the bottom rungs when they could climb a smooth, durable, metal ladder elsewhere in the country? Boston in 2021 is barely worth the current price tag let alone a higher one.
What kind of jobs and industries are you talking about? What makes climbing the corporate ladder easier elsewhere than here?
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Old 06-24-2021, 06:22 AM
 
24,509 posts, read 17,967,651 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayrandom View Post
Jobs. It’s always about jobs. In a lot of cases it isn’t Boston vs Houston or Minneapolis. It’s Boston vs SF. As crazy as it is here, it’s worse there. People haven’t started commuting in from Springfield yet.

Why would someone who could find equivalent work in a much cheaper metro live here? The honest answer is that most probably won’t. So they leave. The problem is that, even with all those people that choose to leave, enough come here that population isn’t declining. And, since the people who move here tend to be the ones getting paid more, now you’ve shifted the median higher.

The hope is that eventually the cycle slows and reverses trend. The problem is that there isn't compelling evidence that this is always the case. We know from the Bay Area example that things can get a lot crazier. Having lived in the Bay Area and running into a few people that moved here from there, it is STILL a relative bargain, especially once you factor in how much better the public schools are here.
…which aligns with the data that says the household income group that is leaving is centered on $70k. The “C” performers leave. The “A” performers replace them. Boston isn’t unique in this. Lower Fairfield County has the same pattern. The fancy parts of Westchester, North Jersey, and Long Island. The Bay Area has been like that for years.

I don’t see the cycle changing because the high value add knowledge and critical thought jobs are becoming more concentrated rather than less. The people who create intellectual property need the face time with their peers. Zoom is a very poor substitute.
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Old 06-24-2021, 07:11 AM
 
15,587 posts, read 7,609,768 times
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I think the 70k income household left a long time. Who has a hhi of 70k anywhere in the area these days? They either leave if they're on section 8.
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Old 06-24-2021, 07:16 AM
 
3,808 posts, read 3,100,077 times
Reputation: 3332
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
…which aligns with the data that says the household income group that is leaving is centered on $70k. The “C” performers leave. The “A” performers replace them. Boston isn’t unique in this. Lower Fairfield County has the same pattern. The fancy parts of Westchester, North Jersey, and Long Island. The Bay Area has been like that for years.

I don’t see the cycle changing because the high value add knowledge and critical thought jobs are becoming more concentrated rather than less. The people who create intellectual property need the face time with their peers. Zoom is a very poor substitute.
Not necessarily “C” performers.

The bulk of MA migration out are younger workers and the polling data suggests they’re leaving, in part, because MA’s mature economy means upper management and senior talent is deeply entrenched and accelerated growth far less likely. One’s capabilities and determination are not necessarily the limiting factor.

I’ve seen a bit of this where individuals spinning out of my employer to the upper Midwest, Austin, Denver, etc. quickly jump from mid-level to directors positions, meanwhile more talented 30-somethings in the Boston market are backlogged in senior/principal roles behind very capable boomer and Gen x leadership. There’s still 70+ year olds taking up space in high value Boston hardware R&D and, while it’s their right to keep working, it does make one wonder whether they wish to ‘wait their turn’ when their 30-something peers are locking director/VP roles in other regions.

This market feels incredibly top heavy. Even the Bay Area feels more upwardly mobile for my industry, perhaps because the opportunities are more plentiful.

Last edited by Shrewsburried; 06-24-2021 at 07:39 AM..
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Old 06-24-2021, 07:25 AM
 
15,587 posts, read 7,609,768 times
Reputation: 10849
It also seems pretty crappy to refer to anyone making 70k as a C player but I wouldn't expect anything less than geoffd. I guess anyone who is a teacher, social worker or anyone making that amount is just a worthless average person.
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