The Great Migration: Taxpayers pouring out of Shelby Co. (Memphis: crime rate, construction)

[scrapperoni]

Originally Posted by PlatReader

this post is ALMOST ONE YEAR OLD !!

Well 5 months is close to ALMOST ONE YEAR I guess.

This pattern is pretty much the same in every major metro area I believe. The difference is how the main inner city handles it. I don't see much progress in the city of Memphis revitalizing itself to attract residents.

[kingchef]

Originally Posted by PlatReader

this post is ALMOST ONE YEAR OLD !!

I think the out migration pattern is very well KNOWN

my calendar has a 12 month cycle---not five. are you speaking for all of shelby county and metro memphis, or is this just your opinion? i would think if one is not to respond to a post then that post should be locked or removed from the forum. if you have the authority to take any of these actions, i would recommend that you seriously consider doing so---it might free all of us from unnecessary quibble.

[kingchef]

Originally Posted by scrapperoni

Well 5 months is close to ALMOST ONE YEAR I guess.

This pattern is pretty much the same in every major metro area I believe. The difference is how the main inner city handles it. I don't see much progress in the city of Memphis revitalizing itself to attract residents.

i agree that, after reviewing all 50 major american metros, out-migration occurs on a regular basis. putting things into perspective, however, out-migration is not specific to memphis. in fact, out-migration from memphis inner city is comparatively low and slow, as compared to other larger american metros. since 2000, only two metros out of the fifty largest experienced gains in their inner cities, according to the u.s. census bureau. these gains were less than 2.1%. another fact, memphis has experienced a consistent positive growth of 5.1 % in its downtown since 2000. truth is, every major metro has experienced population losses in its inner rings. this trend has also been seen in most of the first ring suburban populations of the fifty major metros. those who study these changes know they occur mainly because of "white flight."

international in-migration populations are now helping stablize these white-flight rings, and, thus, increase inner city population counts. in addition to the above, the move to utilize a twenty-four-hour downtown has targeted a need for the new downtown urban-dweller. there is really no reason to think downtown memphis could not sustain a vibrant urban population akin to that of any of its large suburbs. currently, downtown memphis is estimated to have a resident population of <30,000>.

[PlatReader]

Memphis will never have a truly high density "urban population". There is no historical framework to suggest that sort of urban growth is viable or sustainable. That is 'baying at the moon'. Ex-urban growth is like the 'genie out of the bottle'- outbound trends don't typically reverse themselves- that, combined with a strong and ugly tradition of scared, fleeing whites, does not bode well for such solid, continued and sustainable reversal of migration patterns in the MSA. That situation is not unique to Memphis of course, but Memphis is sort of unique when it comes to the brand of racism so evident in its social structure- which is dissimilar to cities such as Atlanta, and Charlotte for example- even a bit different than Birmingham- but Birmingham too, has no solid historical foundation of truly urban lifestyle and infrastructure, or people that really want to reside in the city centre- otherwise the explosive growth 'over the Mountain' would not have taken hold in the mid-1960s in places like Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, Homewood-Shades Valley, Leeds, and more lately Trussville. Memphis has similar satellite communities, and families (the lifeblood of MSA growth) continue to prefer to live completely outside the city centre, and most likely and in all probability will continue to push even further outside the city centre to places like Fayette County, or smaller areas along the I-40 corridor almost to Jackson, or more SE to the MS border past Collierville.

Few families are going to forego their homes in Oakland, or future places like Fisherville, etc. to relocate within the Perimeter, and certainly NOT in th city Centre. Memphis would waste resources trying to 'create' a liveable 'urban oasis' when no societal or historical foundation exists on which to build or expand.

It seems that the Memphis MSA is probably one of the easiest quasi-urban areas for which to plan for future growth- (1)there is no property to develop in Midtown or the relatively SMALL downtown area- (2) Few new structures are being developed to support true 'urban life' (e.g. where's a darn great grocery store ?) where's a new high rise ?) (3) Cities don't typically grow or expand across State Boundaries (so, no logical develoment in West Memphis..why not though?...obvious...yes there are a few bedroom communities in N MS, and that shall continue to be an attraction for families) (4) Cities don't have tremendous interest and growth around Airports which are already in blighted areas of town. Practically speaking, the 'city' will then grow only in two directions, one being NORTH, and the other obviously being EAST or SE (which has had a foothold for quite a long time.)

Most Memphians don't life in the city centre. Many don't even travel to the city centre unless there is a suitable and consistent reason to do so (e.g. work). Behavioral patterns are also somewhat galvanized, and attitudes are also firmly established and entrenched. For instance, I meet people that live in Midtown who hail Midtown as some sort or 'enlightened Mecca', (it's not), who also denigrate 'ex-urbanites' who choose to live with their families, say in Collierville or beyond. The same is said in reverse at times. Then you have a group of 'nouveau urban phonies' that live in the downtown area that think they live in soho, near North of Chicago, Beacon Hill, or Manhattan which is laughable and puzzling to say the least. Downtown Memphis has no resemblance to any of these areas, now or from a historical perspective.

One hallmark of 'southern life', has never really be congruent to 'city life' or 'urban life'. Many southern families have equated 'southern life' with 'agrarian surroundings' and style. 'City or urban life' was manytimes viewed as a Northern phenonmenon, not to be replicated, in the traditional and racially segregated South. Urban life grew hand in hand with The Industrial Revolution, smoke stack industries, manufacturing, and the subsequent need nd supply of high density, cheaper housing. This concept and reality was essentially foreign to southern developers and families seeking proper housing. More importanly, the economic base was far from 'manufacturing' or smoke stack industries.

Ethnic, close knit families tended to gravitate to those high density, urban enclaves or 'cultural ghettos' in The North. No such pattern existed in most of the South...period.

Memphis is a southern 'river town' steeped in the slave and cotton trade- which was the focal point of 'downtown life'. There is little or no historcal reference of the evolution or continuum of a truly vibrant downtown or city centre, that reflected true 'urban life' of various peoples interacting within what can defined as a 'community'.

Retroactive residential/community development may be an attractive concept for many in Memphis, but it will not be sustainable given its societal and economic past and underpinnings. I believe it's a waste of planning energy and limited resources, given massive problems of education and health.

Never fight the trend in economic development, in business, or in markets.

[kingchef]

Originally Posted by kingchef

i agree that, after reviewing all 50 major american metros, out-migration occurs on a regular basis. putting things into perspective, however, out-migration is not specific to memphis. in fact, out-migration from memphis inner city is comparatively low and slow, as compared to other larger american metros. since 2000, only two metros out of the fifty largest experienced gains in their inner cities, according to the u.s. census bureau. these gains were less than 2.1%. another fact, memphis has experienced a consistent positive growth of 5.1 % in its downtown since 2000. truth is, every major metro has experienced population losses in its inner rings. this trend has also been seen in most of the first ring suburban populations of the fifty major metros. those who study these changes know they occur mainly because of "white flight."

international in-migration populations are now helping stablize these white-flight rings, and, thus, increase inner city population counts. in addition to the above, the move to utilize a twenty-four-hour downtown has targeted a need for the new downtown urban-dweller. there is really no reason to think downtown memphis could not sustain a vibrant urban population akin to that of any of its large suburbs. currently, downtown memphis is estimated to have a resident population of <30,000>.

nashville-davidson county has led the state w/ the largest out migration pattern of any county in tn. i believe about 15.2% of its total population during 2000-2008. according to supporting documents, this has been surprising to davidson county officials, even though it has historically occurred for years. it has been said that nashville is the most rural of the metropolitan areas one can visit. not sure if this statement is exactly true, but it is very strip-mallishly laid out and rural throughout. currently, davidson county is struggling to slow the population migration from williamson and particularly rutherford county. these counties have their own suburbs, and they are cities totally independent of nashville, which is up to 40 miles away. the major population growth in the entire area happens to be between southeast nashville and murfreesboro (rutherford) county, where the strongest growth has occurred. these cities are not particularly interested in giving nashville the credit for any of its economic growth more important, davidson's greed for tax dollars; neither are these cities interested in relinquishing their identity and their independence to a city who continues to show shrinking and shortening purse strings. the same scenario plays out in memphis and its suburbs.

in addition to this bad news, nashville has been dropped from the list of the nation's 25 largest cities. however, good news on the tn scene seems to be the successful challenge of memphis to become identified as a hub for a CSA of over 2.2+million residents, as it should have been fifteen years ago. politics is going to become ever increasingly important again, now that memphis---hopefully---is rid of the brain damaged narcissist.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by kingchef

nashville-davidson county has led the state w/ the largest out migration pattern of any county in tn. i believe about 15.2% of its total population during 2000-2008. according to supporting documents, this has been surprising to davidson county officials, even though it has historically occurred for years. it has been said that nashville is the most rural of the metropolitan areas one can visit. not sure if this statement is exactly true, but it is very strip-mallishly laid out and rural throughout. currently, davidson county is struggling to slow the population migration from williamson and particularly rutherford county. these counties have their own suburbs, and they are cities totally independent of nashville, which is up to 40 miles away. the major population growth in the entire area happens to be between southeast nashville and murfreesboro (rutherford) county, where the strongest growth has occurred. these cities are not particularly interested in giving nashville the credit for any of its economic growth more important, davidson's greed for tax dollars; neither are these cities interested in relinquishing their identity and their independence to a city who continues to show shrinking and shortening purse strings. the same scenario plays out in memphis and its suburbs.

in addition to this bad news, nashville has been dropped from the list of the nation's 25 largest cities. however, good news on the tn scene seems to be the successful challenge of memphis to become identified as a hub for a CSA of over 2.2+million residents, as it should have been fifteen years ago. politics is going to become ever increasingly important again, now that memphis---hopefully---is rid of the brain damaged narcissist.

Once again you're wrong. And why are you talking about Nashville anyway in a thread about Memphis?

According to the US Census (and they--not you--are the ones who do this sort of thing) Davidson County has NOT experienced net out-migration in the last couple of years. Shelby County has.

From 2007-2008 Davidson County had a net in-migration of 1,510. Shelby County had a net out-migration (in one year) of -9,227.

In a 9-year period (2000-2008) Davidson County did experience a net out-migration of -1,092. But that's still small beans compared to Shelby County's net out-migration of -41,661. Note that while Davidson County has reversed the trend and people are moving back into Nashville, in Shelby County the net out-migration is merely intensifying.

And yes, Nashville is now the 26th largest city in the country, but it's not because Nashville is losing population. From 2000-2008 Nashville added some 34,000 residents to just under 580,000. Fort Worth TX grew faster, bumping Nashville from 25th to 26th. By the 2010 Census Nashville will likely overtake Milwaukee to put it back into the nation's 25 largest cities.

During the same time period, Memphis lost around 14,000, and that's even considering the significant amount of annexing Memphis did to offset the thousands who are fleeing the city.

As far as Memphis being the hub of a CSA of 2.2 million, that's just laughable. All of West Tennessee has only about 1.5 million, so unless a mythical Memphis CSA is to include Little Rock (which will never happen considering the Arkansas Delta is losing population faster than Memphis) you're only kidding yourself with this fantasy Memphis CSA of yours.

I love Memphis, but there's no reason to make it into something it isn't. About the only things Memphis dominates in Tennessee anymore are its number of failing schools and its crime rate.

[UofMGrad92]

Nashville it a good example to Memphis, especially when talk of consolidation comes up. The consolidated government in Nashville-Davidson County hasn't stopped white and middle class flight, it only pushed it to the outlying counties. While it may be better for the business environment, it hasn't been better for the residential property tax base. The lesson is that consolidation (even in an area that is considered a success story like Nashville) isn't a panacea for all that ails a city.

Nashville's population growth over the past decade has been almost exclusively from international migration (mostly in the form of low skill workers from Mexico and Central America) and birth over death rate. The middle class is leaving Davidson County as this takes place, although it is at a much slower pace than in Shelby County. Shelby County needs to find some way to tap into international migration (more than it has, which isn't an insignificant number) to stabilize it's population. This brings about it's own problems (communication problems in the schools/hospitals, assimilation into the local community so the new arrivals have an ownership stake in the success of the city, etc), but nothing else is going to reverse the trend of population loss as long as crime, schools, and taxes are the problem they are today. These things still need to be fixed, but in the mean time the only folks who are going to move to Memphis in large numbers are immigrants seeking work.

This is a very pivotal time for the future of Memphis and Shelby County. Memphis has most of it's better suburbs inside Shelby County so the tax base of those relatively more affluent areas benefits Memphis through county run programs. Consolidation will just push that out to the neighboring counties as has happened in Nashville. The out migration of productive citizens will continue to grow and the population of the Shelby County will drop off dramatically over a couple of decades. The only question is will those moving even stay in the Memphis MSA. Is living in the Memphis MSA really worth having an hour plus commute?

[thefineprint]

I hope things get better for Memphis economically...I feel like a hypocrite though. I moved out of the city 3 days after graduating w/ my masters degree. I miss many things about it but can't see raising my kids there so I made the decision to leave for a less economically disadvantaged area

[Carolina Texan]

Originally Posted by UofMGrad92

This is a very pivotal time for the future of Memphis and Shelby County. Memphis has most of it's better suburbs inside Shelby County so the tax base of those relatively more affluent areas benefits Memphis through county run programs. Consolidation will just push that out to the neighboring counties as has happened in Nashville. The out migration of productive citizens will continue to grow and the population of the Shelby County will drop off dramatically over a couple of decades. The only question is will those moving even stay in the Memphis MSA. Is living in the Memphis MSA really worth having an hour plus commute?

as an outsider considering a move to Memphis, i was struck that Fayette county is just a couple of great public schools away from a major tipping point. If they would build one in Piperton, that area would explode.

[UofMGrad92]

Originally Posted by Carolina Texan

as an outsider considering a move to Memphis, i was struck that Fayette county is just a couple of great public schools away from a major tipping point. If they would build one in Piperton, that area would explode.

The issue with the public schools in Fayette County are certainly a drag on development in the county, but there are bigger issues than just building schools in the western part of the county (Oakland, Piperton, Hickory Wythe). The long time residents of the county that can afford to do so use private schools and the new residents of the county plan to do so when there children reach middle school or high school. The same issues are at play in Marshall County, MS (Holly Springs).

The white flight from Memphis City Schools was to largely rural and predominantly white Shelby County, Tipton County, and (while it didn't start that way) Desoto County. The first step was lots of small, really bad private schools in Memphis. As more people moved to the neighboring school districts the private schools went away. In Fayette County and Marshall County, this didn't happen. The use of private schools became an accepted cost of living in the county (much like what you see in much of East Memphis or Midtown) and the public schools became an afterthought.


Fayette County is kind of stuck right now. How can they justify a new high school in Piperton, Oakland, or Rossville when the existing county high school isn't overcrowded? The only reason it isn't used is that it is a not a good school, but the issue of race hangs over the whole thing and complicates any possible solution.

The simple fact is that if the new residents of Fayette County made use of the public schools, many of the problems would disappear. The schools would be overcrowded and a new schools would have to be built. But they are not good schools, so why would any parent with the means to go private use them? I'm not sure there is any answer to breaking this cycle, but if someone comes up with one Fayette County might end up with 200,000 residents in 20 years.