Do you think mexico will eventually overpass the UK in terms of economy? (living, price)

[Javier77]

A few months ago I saw that infamous chapter in Top Gear (I read about it on the news, I don´t give a hoot about cars so I never watch that program) , when they started bashing Mexico and Mexican. Apparently they were commenting on a new sport car developed in Mexico, and that made them think it was very funny.


"you need a poncho to drive it", or "you can use it to go to the taco corner", "imagine wake up in the morning and remember you are a Mexican....I'd just to back to bed", etc.


They looked so smug it almost made me feel sick. So I just wonderedkay,nowadays it's no secret that the UK ranks higher than Mexico in many social and economic indicators, but what in the long run?


I mean, globalization little by little makes 3rd world countries progress, have access to new tecnology,flow cash, etc, and the diferences among countries are reduced. Those countries with a big population like China, India and Brazil will be the next superpowers in 50 years, no doubt about it.

So in this regard, I think Mexico is in a better position than the UK.It has 110 million people,compared to 63 million in the UK.

Mexico shares borders with the USA in the North,and Latin America (a big economic market in the long term) in the South,meanwhile the UK is an island.(okay, two islands if you count the Ulster in the island of Ireland)

So if we take all those factors into consideration, and the drug cartels lose power (they wont be the kings of Mexico forever,nothing last forever) would it be reasonable to say that Mexico will be a better place to live than the UK in say 50 years from now?

[mexguy]

Originally Posted by Javier77

So if we take all those factors into considration, and the drug cartels lose power (they wont be the kings of Mexico forever,nothing last forever) would it be reasonable to say that Mexico will be a better place to live than the UK in say 50 years from now?

Mexico already is a better place to live than the UK due to weather, low cost of living, better beaches, etc.

Mexico will never surpass England in economic terms.

[boxus]

Anything is possible in fifty years, however, it would take a cultural shift for this to happen.

Is the potential there for Mexico? In my opinion yes, I think Mexico has the more potential than most countries in the world, if anything, just because of location and resources.

However, just as in many countries, the social culture/problems prevent this from happening. This is harder to change more so than anything else.

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by Javier77

would it be reasonable to say that Mexico will be a better place to live than the UK in say 50 years from now?

It already is, if that is your criterion.

[gomexico]

You can't be serious, with the question.

[TylerJAX]

If you mean in terms of total GDP, Mexico has a fair shot of surpassing the UK sometime in the latter half of this century.

[Hombre]

Like the US, the UK is on the decline, so it will most likely happen.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by TylerJAX

If you mean in terms of total GDP, Mexico has a fair shot of surpassing the UK sometime in the latter half of this century.

GDP is either defined as "purchasing power parity (PPP)" where the economist tries to take into consideration the price of items, food and services within the country, or by "nominal exchange rate". It is also calculated on a per person basis or on a "per nation" basis. Since Mexico has a larger population that any single European country it makes a difference.

Using "per country" and PPP the normal ranking is "UK, France, Italy, Mexico" where UK and France are very close and there is some debate about which country is ranked first. These four countries are ranked 8,9,10, and 11 in the world behind the first 7 (USA, China, Japan, India, Germany, and Russia).

As Mexico has a faster rate of population growth than the other three, by this metric Mexico should pass all three within the decade.

But on a per person basis, it will probably be the latter half of the 21st century. But there are so many variables that it is almost impossible to determine. Despite Mexico's massive strides in creating a middle class, it still has a long way to go until it is on par with a European nation.

While treating the peso as stable compared to a European currency has been fairly laughable since WWII, the recent meltdown in the world economy has shown Mexico in a favorable light. The country has been fairly stable in comparison to many economies (including the USA) in terms of production of artificial money (quantitative easing) and keeping government deficit spending to reasonable levels.

[PacoMartin]

Generally speaking, 23 countries make up 73.5% of the world's population. But the Southern African, and most of the South Asian economies are not as developed. So if you are ranking countries by the size of their economies,

By population
19.1% China
36.3% India
40.8% United States
44.3% Indonesia *
47.2% Brazil
49.9% Pakistan *
52.3% Nigeria *
54.6% Bangladesh *
56.6% Russia
58.4% Japan
60.1% Mexico
61.6% Philippines *
62.9% Vietnam *
64.2% Ethiopia *
65.4% Egypt *
66.5% Germany
67.7% Turkey *
68.8% Iran *
69.8% Congo (Kinshasa) *
70.8% Thailand *
71.7% France
72.6% United Kingdom
73.5% Italy

By economy (GDP/PPP according to International Monetary Fund
1 United States $15,075,675
2 China $11,299,987
3 Japan $4,444,139
4 India $4,420,563
5 Germany $3,113,927
6 Russia $2,383,364
7 Brazil $2,294,178
8 United Kingdom $2,287,865
9 France $2,213,780
10 Italy $1,846,922
11 Mexico $1,666,531

Within a few years, Mexico will likely overtake countries from this list. Italy within 3 to 5 years.

[OyCrumbler]

50 years from now is a long time and given current growth rates, Mexico will surpass the UK for GDP by a pretty good margin. It's hard to predict that long into the future though.

Anyhow, answer is probably.