Moving back to SoFla/Housing crash yet? (Miami: short sales, foreclosure) - Florida (FL) -Miami-Dade County - Page 2 - City-Data Forum

S_FLA · 09-21-2007, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zima

Well, Jacksonville ain't doin it fer us. We're headed back to Broward. I hear some "experts" saying into 2008 the housing market will still be weak. Is now the time to buy or wait til people get real desperate in 08?

(I understand this is a Miami forum

Prices lately have been dropping. I keep seeing "Reduced" listings. Of course it hasn't bottomed because of the expensive property tax and hurricane insurance is still keeping a lot of buyers wary.

Zima · 09-26-2007, 03:42 PM

I'm heading down to SoFla for "fact finding" I may settle for a 2/2 in my old n'hood. It's convenient location. Been following a 2/2 w/potential for a 3rd br and office, orginally 300K now 260K, may offer 197K to see. I figure it's all overvalued by 15% plus toss in the 10% specualtion for the next 6 months and the offer is 25% below ... oh well, cash is king we'll see,
I'm a fan of concrete block homes closer to the ocean say 1-3 miles, we like the breeze. I have not interest in Coral SPrings or anything west of I-95, too hot and congested. I'll get as ready as I was before w/hurricane prep plus I want to add whole house generator and impact windows and doors.

tallrick · 09-26-2007, 04:10 PM

197K is still a lot, but if you can afford that offer you should go for it. Unfortunately Miami sellers are in denial, so it may take a few offers to finally land a decent deal.

Chelito23 · 09-26-2007, 04:27 PM

I think that it will be hard to find a seller willing to sell the home you described for your offer price. NOT that I think you are out of line, but the sellers are. The other problem is that 197K is "affordable" aka a starter home price in Miami, so there would be many people willing to pay that or even more.

Bottom line is, the price you ask may be fair, but I doubt you will get it, since there are plenty of people with a hard on just to own a house here, even though they know nothing about the area nor do they work locally. That keeps the prices artificially high.

I would make an offer for around 225K...and of course they will not accept...but let them know that you will wait..and to contact you if they change their minds...and good luck. I like the same style and location you are talking about.

One piece of advice, if you are a true urban pioneer, would be to look into Allapatah and the areas near SR 112 (airport Expressway). There are many affordable homes here by local standards, but the area is far from safe. HOWEVER, I think this area will ultimately revitalize and turn aroun over time, if you can tough it out for a couple of years...

BUBBAboyTM · 09-26-2007, 04:44 PM

Hi... I am very familiar with Allapatah. When I was a kid, Allapatah was a sketchy neighborhood when Miami was extremely safe and like a small hometown. I am now 35, and it is still a sketchy neighborhood. I see NO turn around anytime soon. My policy is that after all of the speculation we saw in Miami in the past 5 years... whatever has not already turned around will not do so anytime soon. And the kicker is that Allapatah is located within the flight path of the Miami International Airport. The planes fly directly overhead and your house literally shakes every time. Multiply that times 30 times a day and you get the picture.

BUBBAboyTM · 09-26-2007, 04:49 PM

P.S. - The rule of thumb for buying a house is three times your annual salary. Take the average house in Miami at $300K (although prices ARE falling... I am seeing them in the paper) This means that the household has to have AT LEAST a $100k income. Not many people in Miami even make that as the salaries here totally stink and everyone is either a blue collar worker or extremely overqualified and working under their income potential just to make ends meet. And the people that do make $100k or more would never live in a $300K neighborhood as these areas still look like and are filled with people from the $100k era from a few years back... so I feel that the "middle class" homes are the ones that are going to tank because the people that want them can't afford them and the people that can afford them want something much better.

Zima · 09-26-2007, 09:41 PM

We cashed out at the height but want to get back to what we've called home the past 18 years. I know the 197K, technically is too high but who the hells gonna listen to reason. Some "experts" say the bottom has not been found yet but that doesn't mean people will give away there house. The 2/2 I was looking at is not "remodeled" the sellers have it paid off having purchased the home for 90K in 1999. But, my point is that if we are back to where we want to be we can update the house in stages. Of course, I seem to always fall into that trap of wanting to improve everything. First it will be the floors, then the walls, then the landscaping, then the enclosing of the patio, then the impact windows, then the second morty, then the new roof, etc...SO, what 8 years later they want to clear how much? yikes!! The bottom line for us is we need to get on with living our life and adding in the year we took to decide to sell plus the year adjusting to the new place now another year jerking around decideing to move then when you add it all up it comes out to "that's what lifes about!"

We want to keep the morty between 1500-1800 a month. The tax, insurance, windstorm and flood on a 250K property would be arounf 10,000K a year. 2% sales price for tax, 5000$, WS around 4700$ and flood 500K . So, that's what, 850$ a month plus PI.

Chelito23 · 09-27-2007, 05:50 PM

Bubbaboy added some good points about Allapatah...it isn't a place I would recommmend *****, but on your budget, it would be the best you could hope for, and like I said it meets you requirements for price, housing style and location based on distance from the beaches.

I think this area will turn around as many areas are overpriced and have NOTHING to offer. At least Allapath is close to everything...even though it has obvious major drawbacks like most areas in Miami.

Where in Miami did you live before you moved out btw? I know it kills people to see what was paid 5 years ago and now people ask double and the house is still a dump...sigh...but it would be your way back into the market.

Also you might look into North Miami or NMB...once again not the best areas but the location is good and the homes themselves are decent. Just research those areas to see what they are like so you know what you are getting into before hand...

oldtimer2 · 10-21-2007, 02:09 PM

I want to purchase in Ft Lauderdale. I am going to wait it out. I have seen many real estate markets boom then bust.

Some units in S.Fl. went up 300-500% in 4-5 yrs. That is absurd and irrational. Simple greed and Lemming stupidity brought this mess about. Crooked and dishonest MTG brokers, Realtors, and others, fueled this frenzy. Almost everyone wanted to get rich quick off the backs of our future retirees. Some did in fact. Others came in too late and are now stuck holding the bag.

Expect prices to drop to around 1990-93 prices or so. Time is on the buyers side and will be so for at least 2-3 more years. Got's all them ADJ MTG ripoff loans coming due. Not only will there be more homes for sale, there will also be all those folks with damaged credit unable to purchase again for many years to come.

So, ..How about Just triple the amount of homes for sale on the market now and you will probably see what is going to happen. Most recent buyers are leveraged out and did not expect to have to keep paying on their homes for many years. They speculated and vastly overpaid. They cannot even rent out to pay their bills. And many are out of state owners who cannot manage an out of state rental even if they could find a tenant.

I would not consider any home that is not reduced by 50-70% of last yrs price. And, even that offer would make me nervous. To get a feel for real values, best we look to the affordability of a given area's homes. 3 x Income = Mkt. Value is still as true today as it was pre-boom.

My Advise?
#1 There are no experts. Learn that first.

#2. Rent. Use someone else's 400k home for 1200-1500 per month and save your cash. Let the landlord discount your comfort level for a few years while you bargain shop.

#3 Remember #1.

We ain't seen nothing yet.

The fat lady is not even out of bed yet. Place your bets.

tallrick · 10-21-2007, 08:20 PM

If this crash happens, a lot of good people will be able to stay. The standoff is still holding, but when the economy really hits bottom, I am very hopeful that property prices will follow. They used to think that Detroit was valuable and look at what happened. Once the glamour fades, Miami and much of south Florida will face the same fate. The comming 5.00 a gallon gas prices will help as well!