Preparing for Ike? (Miami, Tampa, Orlando: home, tile, closing)

[nicsma2002]

Originally Posted by miamimiami

Not being familiar with the area, and given the geography of South Florida (water on both sides of the peninsula), where would it be considered relatively safe to be staying for shelter while a Cat 4/5 storm would make landfall from the East like Andrew ? How far inland from Miami/Ft. Lauderdale do you think it would be considered appropriate to evacuate to for personal safety ? All the way to the West Coast (like Naples), or somewhere between the coasts would be enough or preferable ?

Personally, if a 4/5 were making a beeline for Miami, my first choice would be to leave the city entirely. I'd go to the west coast and stay with relatives, or fly out of state to stay with friends until it's over.

My second choice would be to stay in a hurricane shelter, usually in the schools. Those buildings are built to handle that level of storm. Private homes are not, even those that are built "to code", unless it was specifically designed as such, which would involve a house with extra-thick walls and no windows. I don't know anyone who lives in a house like that.

Those are my only choices! lol

I think I'm staying put for Ike if he follows the course they're saying now. Supposedly it's headed straight for Key West and go up the west coast of FL. Although I'm worried about tornadoes.

[Marlin331]

If Ike is supposed to hit as a category 4 and the eye is supposed to pass within 50 miles if where you live, you need to LEAVE. I know too many horror stories of people cramming their whole families in a closet while their roof was being torn off of their house above them (read: Andrew hitting Homestead/Kendall in 1992) to suggest anything otherwise. Going to the west coast of Florida isn't a great suggestion because the storm will hit there too, maybe as a weakened category 3 but still - it will be strong. You need to just make the four hour drive to Orlando instead of staying in Miami/TheKeys/Broward or wherever it's supposed to hit.

[sunrico90]

If a cat 4 is coming I'm moving to safe grounds..

Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete roof structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are also common. Mobile and manufactured homes are leveled. These hurricanes cause major erosion of beach areas and terrain may be flooded well inland as well.

Hurricanes of this intensity are extremely dangerous to populated areas. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the deadliest natural disaster to hit the United States, would be classified as Category 4 if it occurred today. Other examples of storms at this intensity are Hazel (1954), Carmen (1974), Iniki (1992), Luis (1995), Iris (2001), and Charley (2004), and Gustav (2008).

Again, rather be safe than sorry....

[Sebastian1234]

u know what?ike wont hit miami!heres the latest picture from the National Hurricane center in miami

[Marlin331]

Originally Posted by Sebastian1234

u know what?ike wont hit miami!heres the latest picture from the National Hurricane center in miami

Attachment 26755

This is a four-day projection that shows Ike's eye hitting Key West instead of Miami. A lot can change in four days, and this is just an estimate! The ONE-day projected path for Andrew showed the eye going over Marathon (middle Keys) and instead the eye went over Homestead. If there can be a 80 mile diversion in the projected path in one day, there CERTAINLY can be a 150 mile diversion in the projected path over four days.

[Sebastian1234]

yeah i know that but hopefully it wont hit miami because i´m going to move there in december

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by Sebastian1234

u know what?ike wont hit miami!heres the latest picture from the National Hurricane center in miami

Attachment 26755

We don't know that for sure, can go north 5 degrees and the point of impact changes. Way too early to tell of the outcome. Can come my way in the Panhandle....

[planetsurf]

Originally Posted by miamimiami

Not being familiar with the area, and given the geography of South Florida (water on both sides of the peninsula), where would it be considered relatively safe to be staying for shelter while a Cat 4/5 storm would make landfall from the East like Andrew ? How far inland from Miami/Ft. Lauderdale do you think it would be considered appropriate to evacuate to for personal safety ? All the way to the West Coast (like Naples), or somewhere between the coasts would be enough or preferable ?

If my memory serves me right, none of the shelters in S. Dade were wrecked during Andrew -- the last Cat 4/5 to hit SoFLa. They wouldn't use it as a shelter if they thought it wasn't safe no matter how west or east it is.
Remember that during a hurricane, the first danger is water, mainly from storm surge. EVERYONE needs to get off the barrier islands (like M Beach) and away from the bay. You could be just 2 miles inland and perfectly safe from that.
The second danger is the wind. A house recently built or remodeled in SoFla should be able to withstand a Cat 2/3 no problem., Cat 3/4 is more questionable but it should stay intact with minor damage, a Cat 4/5 ??? -- depends on your house, location, etc.
If you own a SFH in SoFla and you don't have shutters, plywood or hurricane windows and haven't had extra hurricane straps added to your roof joists and a giant blue tarp shame on you. It doesn't have to be expensive to get things ready.

As to leaving ... it's all well and good to run to Orlando everytime a hurricane comes close, but when? How strong? How close? Ike is supposed to hit Key West right now, but that's not until Tuesday! The forecast will change 4x per day until then. Andrew hit stronger than they thought, Gustav just hit LA weaker than they predicted so sometimes the strength will fluctuate too.

EVERYONE needs to be prepared! You should have supplies to last you 5 days without electricity the first day of hurricane season. You should have a plan for "escape" either before or, G*d forbid a massive mess, after a storm. Have gas in your car, cash, crankable radio, etc. KNOW where the shelters are if the eye jogs towards you and is strong enough to concern you.

You don't want to be caught on the road in a last minute dash to "safety" and don't count on flights out of "Dodge" on Monday. Just make like a Boy Scout and Be Prepared.

Personally, I have EVERYTHING we need to survive a catastrophe for a few days afterward (like no roof) until we can get out. I have an Aunt in Boynton, parents in Aventura, we are in CGables near UM (NW of US1) and friends in Plantation. Everyone in our circle knows we can go to the others even in the case of just a lose of power (which happens in the Gables every month lol) or for months if we lose a roof.

We are staying in a Cat 2/3, probably a 3/4. A 4/5 predicted 50-60 miles of us and we are at the shelter, no doubt.

Just have your plans and you'll be fine.

[planetsurf]

Originally Posted by crisp444

This is a four-day projection that shows Ike's eye hitting Key West instead of Miami. A lot can change in four days, and this is just an estimate! The ONE-day projected path for Andrew showed the eye going over Marathon (middle Keys) and instead the eye went over Homestead. If there can be a 80 mile diversion in the projected path in one day, there CERTAINLY can be a 150 mile diversion in the projected path over four days.

Right now the 2 best models, the GFS & GFDL are both showing pretty similar curves and ending up pretty close to the same place SW of Naples, but differing greatly on how they get there:
South Florida weather from Sun-Sentinel.com

Like you said, there are 4 long days left!

[sunrico90]

According to the Weather Channel is going to hit the Keys and is going in the Gulf. Maybe this is the time to rethink your plan of attack..

Weather Underground also updated the 5 day forecast;

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif (broken link)