Florida's fastest dying suburb (renters, lenders, neighborhoods)

[EnjoyTheSilence]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

couger

Those condo prices are going to fall like bricks with this.

Hopefully, those ugly-ass condos will "fall like bricks" too.

[crisp444]

Originally Posted by BCreass

Hopefully, those ugly-ass condos will "fall like bricks" too.

Are you serious? What a mean wish. I hope the prices don't fall too much further; investors have already taken enough of a hit. The average joe shouldn't be able to afford a luxury downtown condo; I don't know how far some of you want the prices to fall...

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by crisp444

Are you serious? What a mean wish. I hope the prices don't fall too much further; investors have already taken enough of a hit. The average joe shouldn't be able to afford a luxury downtown condo; I don't know how far some of you want the prices to fall...

lol prices will fall in line with local incomes. as for investors, that's their problem. they gambled and lost. that's what happens when you invest in ponzi schemes

[Thomas Jefferson]

Hey it's funny, in the 70s were the white flights, in the 90s the gentrification, and now, how will people call it? the rich flights.

[Cougar Beach]

Originally Posted by Thomas Jefferson

Hey it's funny, in the 70s were the white flights, in the 90s the gentrification, and now, how will people call it? the rich flights.

It's a real estate bubble. We've seen it before and we'll see it again.

I feel not a shred of sympathy for the investors. They wanted to get rich quick, and were a big part of the problem. As usual, the smart money already flipped their condos a couple of years ago; all the Toms, Dicks and Harrys who thought he could get rich in a hurry are now holding the bag. The same pattern repeats in every bubble, but people won't learn. Greed wins out.

[crisp444]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

lol prices will fall in line with local incomes. as for investors, that's their problem. they gambled and lost. that's what happens when you invest in ponzi schemes

It is not necessary for prices to fall completely in line with local incomes because the Miami real estate market is not solely a local market. It may be the case that a healthy real estate market in Kansas City has median homes priced at three times the median annual household income, but Miami draws too many people from the NE US, Latin America, and Europe to be a local market. Like I have said in another thread it is much more in line with somewhere like NYC than a mid-sized Midwestern City where Pizza Hut and Taco Bell are about as "international" as it gets.

I certainly hope that prices downtown and in Brickell stabilize and don't fall any further than they already have. Luxury condos are for upper-income people, not for average joes. Middle to upper income people are the demographic that will attract shops and restaurants to open downtown, and $100,000 2 bedroom condos do NOT attract the demographic that is needed to support an upscale, vibrant downtown area. People with the median income can live in "median" places like Westchester, Kendale Lakes, Cutler Bay, and West Hialeah... or just purchase already affordable studios and small one bedrooms in western Brickell and northern downtown.

[Cougar Beach]

crisp444> I certainly hope that prices downtown and in Brickell stabilize and don't fall any further than they already have.

Go back and read the article cited in post #48. Prices will continue to drop. They would have anyway, since there are so few buyers (in the whole world) compared to the stock of for-sale units.

If you look at the history of the number of condo units sold in the area in good times, you'll see that the market is absolutely flooded now. On top of that, the Euro has been getting weaker versus the dollar. The market overhang will last for some time.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by crisp444

It is not necessary for prices to fall completely in line with local incomes because the Miami real estate market is not solely a local market. It may be the case that a healthy real estate market in Kansas City has median homes priced at three times the median annual household income, but Miami draws too many people from the NE US, Latin America, and Europe to be a local market. Like I have said in another thread it is much more in line with somewhere like NYC than a mid-sized Midwestern City where Pizza Hut and Taco Bell are about as "international" as it gets.

I certainly hope that prices downtown and in Brickell stabilize and don't fall any further than they already have. Luxury condos are for upper-income people, not for average joes. Middle to upper income people are the demographic that will attract shops and restaurants to open downtown, and $100,000 2 bedroom condos do NOT attract the demographic that is needed to support an upscale, vibrant downtown area. People with the median income can live in "median" places like Westchester, Kendale Lakes, Cutler Bay, and West Hialeah... or just purchase already affordable studios and small one bedrooms in western Brickell and northern downtown.

oh Gosh,

Same argument I hear my new yorkers try to use. Fact is, thats far from reality. NYC had a housing bubble in the 80s/90s and at the end of the day, guess what? Home prices came back in line with local incomes. Don't believe me? Check this out link tons of info from old articles that show what I am saying. My cousin purchased a brownstone in Brooklyn in 1998 for 190,000. It is a four family brownstone. At the height it went up to 500,000 and at the end it will go right back to 190,000. No amount of magical foreigners from foreign land is going to change that. Europeans are not going to come to America and save anything, they have their own problems. Latin America is doing ok for now but we will see how long that lasts and the influx of them isn't enough to offset the huge inventories. Not only that, look at the over whelming majority of foreigners coming here. They are not the rich jetset type, they are the working types. The fundamentals are always going to be the same I don't care how many time people tell themselves (this time is different). It wasn't "different" in 1920s when this same thing happened. Wasn't different in the 80s and and isn't different now. Well there is ONE difference. Generally when this happened, it was isloatd to regions. This time it is global (this housing bubble and exotic loans happaned all across America, parts of Europe, Australia and Dubai). So, yes prices will continue to fall until they are in line with local incomes, sorry to break that news, but history has always shown this to be true and it will show it to be true again. I should also mention, median income doesn't necessarily mean for the entire county/city. For example the median income in say coconut grove is not the same as the median income in morningside etc. So depending upon the median income for that given area, that is where you will see prices go.

As for the "luxury condos are for rich people". I suggest you take a look at what you are calling "rich". These people were rich on paper i.e. money in the stock market, many of these people have been whipped out. I really don't think you and a lot of other people understand whats happening right now. the playing field has become/is becoming leveled. A lot of people are not going to make it back from this one. You guys should go look at these high end shopping areas now. then go revisit them at the end of this year. Useless places that sell high end goods are not going to make it out of this one. People who are selling things people NEED will do fine however. Things are going to be very different when this is all said and done.

Also to your NYC references and prices, have you really been keeping up with whats going on there? Prices are plummeting, jobs are being lost and the magical europeans people said would come and keep prices from falling aren't showing up. All this "middle class should live in area x,y and z" is a fallacy, but you guys will figure it out, but it seems it wont be until reality in sitting on your lap with its arm around your shoulders.

There was a article about two years back from a regional housing discussion at FIU. They had a commissioner from Miami on the panel. someone asked him "some are saying this is a housing bubble, if it is, what do you think will happen to the condos downtown" he said, "well I guess we will have a TON of affordable housing" and laughed.

[crisp444]

^^ I will have to check out the link that you posted. I understand that all of the predictions say that the prices have not completely hit rock bottom and I do not necessarily disagree with them: I just hope that the rock bottom isn't much lower than it is now. However, with a flooded market and a weak economy, I fear that the worse may not have come.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by crisp444

^^ I will have to check out the link that you posted. I understand that all of the predictions say that the prices have not completely hit rock bottom and I do not necessarily disagree with them: I just hope that the rock bottom isn't much lower than it is now. However, with a flooded market and a weak economy, I fear that the worse may not have come.

Just think of it like this. It generally takes a equal amount of time for these things to deflate as they did to inflate. this housing mess started in 1998 and went belly up in 2006/2007 (depending on where you were). So 2013/2014 before it will bottom out. I mean think about it, real incomes have not increased since what, 1997 or something like that I read.

As for segregating people according to income to me is not practical. I mean yeah the super rich will live in their gated communities, that has been like that since money was introduced to man. However, having lower middle, middle, upper middle and wealthy in the same area is nothing new. Heck in Brooklyn I can stand on one side of a street and be in the projects in Fort Green. Walk across the street and I am in Clinton Hills which is a very wealthy area. And even in there you have a mix of people. It takes ALL kinds to make a community. I think Miami made the mistake of only thinking they were going to cater to the wealthy as far as downtown goes and that's not practical nor is it going to happen for them. Vibrant and sustainable communities cover all of the socio-economic and racial spectrum.

Another good thing to listen link