Florida's fastest dying suburb (Miami, Hialeah: lower-class, for sale, real estate)

[josparrow]

I just posted same question for ft lauderdale, but curious to get a range of opinions...

With the economic collapse, the real estate collapse, the retail collapse -- which towns just aren't going to make it?

Why?

[Cougar Beach]

Have towns in Florida closed up shop before? I figure if Homestead and Florida City can survive, then it won't happen.

[joelibyan]

Yeah... Define "close up shop." Are we talking ghost towns a la the American West?
A few things, however...
- A new plaza zoned for NW 137 av @ 836 has been scrapped. Target, Kohls and Lowes all pulled out, according to yesterday's Herald. Stuff like this is happening all over.
- There is talk of the suburbs becoming the new ghettos. Urban life was the norm up until WWII, until the dawn of the era of the suburb during the baby boom. Once the rich and middle class urbanites left, the vacuum was filled with lower income residents. There is talk now of the trend reversing, thus leaving the empty suburban homes for lower incomes. You can see it now in west Dade. Give it some more time.

[tallrick]

I doubt that any place in Florida will be empty for long. Just like a dumpster at the end of a trash chute, as soon as you empty it more fills it up. What will happen is that many of those crammed-in zero lot line and condo properties will go bankrupt, and be bought by investors and converted to rentals. Low paid immigrants and labor will fill some of the units while the whole area deterrirorates in the Florida sun. Any areas with acreage, 1 or more will not fall into slum status and will be the places to be in the suburbs. My prediction is that Homestead, Fl city and some parts of west kendall will become run down. Hialeah and new developments in north dade will face the same fate they did in the 70's. Also inner city condos which are too expensive will continue to sit empty while the desireable coastal properties remain in demand. The trick to getting a desireable property comes to two things, proximity to the bay/ocean and space. Get on the water or get some acreage. Everything else is vulnerable. Even the desireable properties will lose value but at least they will never become slums.

[crisp444]

Originally Posted by joelibyan

You can see it now in west Dade. Give it some more time.

Where in West Miami-Dade can you see this? Let's not confuse lower-middle class and middle class areas with lower-class areas. I can think of nowhere in Miami-Dade County above SW 152 Street and west of the Turnpike that can be classified as lower-income. If anything, Homestead/Florida City/west Cutler Ridge fit this trend in a way, but nowhere in West Miami-Dade as it is traditionally defined.

[tallrick]

Originally Posted by crisp444

Where in West Miami-Dade can you see this? Let's not confuse lower-middle class and middle class areas with lower-class areas. I can think of nowhere in Miami-Dade County above SW 152 Street and west of the Turnpike that can be classified as lower-income. If anything, Homestead/Florida City/west Cutler Ridge fit this trend in a way, but nowhere in West Miami-Dade as it is traditionally defined.

Richmond heights is low income and above 152 street, although still south of the income divider canal. West Kendall has some really ugly zero-lot homes and townhouse condos populated by low income immigrant labor. There are even run down apartments on Kendall near the college. Even the "middle class" are low income by national standards, they really depended on home loans for spending money.

[crisp444]

I specifically stated "above SW 152nd Street and west of the Turnpike." . Few people know that the median household income in this country is just $48,000.

Below are the median household incomes in several areas of West Miami-Dade.

The Hammocks: $54,444
Kendale Lakes: $44,156
The Crossings: $55,517
Tamiami: $47,503
Country Walk: $63,689
Three Lakes: $54,830

The numbers show that these areas are solidly middle class.

[joelibyan]

Clarification: I was not referring to actual incomes of the families that live there. I was referring, however, to the number of new homes (circa 2003-present) that are boarded up/lawns not mowed/empty driveway types that plague the area. The homes themselves are nice, and the people who live most certainly are middle class. But those houses aren't going to sit there empty forever. The prices will come down, and lower incomes will move in.
Areas I'm talking about: South of 8th St to Tamiami Airport between 137th and Krome.

[crisp444]

^^ Fair enough. That very well could happen.

[planetsurf]

Originally Posted by joelibyan

Yeah... Define "close up shop." Are we talking ghost towns a la the American West?
A few things, however...
- A new plaza zoned for NW 137 av @ 836 has been scrapped. Target, Kohls and Lowes all pulled out, according to yesterday's Herald. Stuff like this is happening all over.
- There is talk of the suburbs becoming the new ghettos. Urban life was the norm up until WWII, until the dawn of the era of the suburb during the baby boom. Once the rich and middle class urbanites left, the vacuum was filled with lower income residents. There is talk now of the trend reversing, thus leaving the empty suburban homes for lower incomes. You can see it now in west Dade. Give it some more time.

Interesting and yeah, pretty accurate from my experience (EVERYWHERE, not just Miami or SoFla).
I think tallrick is generally correct too. Look at Pinecrest-Kendall-S Miami-Gables-Grove south and east of US1. There are some homes for sale, but not that many and still VERY, VERY expensive. VS P Pines or W Kendall? ... no comparison. Even if both go down another 20%, still no comparison.
OR a condo like the Ocean Club on Key Biscayne -- still VERY expensive and units sell - sure a little less and/or a little longer, but we have friends looking to relocate there and the current sales are NUTS.

In terms of dying towns? I don't think most of SoFla has it that bad. I'd be more suspect of some of the overpriced, created "towns" north of Vero or around Ft Myers. The retirees nest eggs to pay to get into these places just isn't there anymore. And since there is no base population (or very small) existing, no $$ flowing. Builders built using certain $ assumptions (say $300k per unit) and the homes up north that needed to be sold to pay for these dropped 30% in value. Now grandma & grandpa don't have enough booty to retire there anymore so the builder is left holding the bag (or dumping the whole thing).
People that are working are still working (even if struggling). The people who are rich have less, but still have $$. It's the folks JUST getting ready to retire (first of the baby boomers) who are suffering the most. The communities planned for them will suffer the most.

Look at this map:
http://www.miamifly.net/maps/foreclosures_soflazips/

Worst hit foreclosure areas are the working class areas and the "newer" areas from Plantation to Parkland, W Kendall & Brickell. Best are east Gables/Pinecrest, Key Biscayne, Lighthouse Point, old Ft Lauderdale, etc.

All just mho but it's interesting.