Real Estate Crystal Ball in Michigan (Traverse City, Republic: relocation, housing, jobs)

[janette moss]

Originally Posted by highfive

You don't need a crystal ball to see that Michigan is not going to come back anytime soon.
The last time we saw anything even close to this it took almost 10 years from the late 70s to the early 90s.
I see some posting that the west side is doing "well" don't buy this load of magic beans.
All the forecasts are saying if the fed does not drop the interest the whole u.s. will go into rescission, and that the auto industry has dropped 10% this year alone.
We in Michigan are not going to see any good times soon.
For those who want to sell their homes in MI. If you don't get ahead of the curve now, and I mean now!! you will look back on this time as bad as it is as a good time to sell.
If you can't wait it out for 7 to 10 years, and you need to go. Then you have to take your hit now and get to some place that you can start to rebuild.
I have family trying to sell their home and will not drop price.
those who wait and dig in their heels and say I will not drop my price, their neighbors will drop price, and your home will get over looked. In this market you can only sell with price, people are looking for deals those who are in the market. If you don't get ahead of the price curve now, you will only have a worse item to sell in the future.
So this is a time the stubborn people will loose out big time.
I know of one person in tower, who is trying to sell an old school house on ford road that they paid 39k for put another 30k into it and say they will not take a dime under 150k, All I can say is some people do not live in reality, I think he calls himself the "cartoon guy"
These people are nuts and will hang on to their house and pay the taxes for the foreseeable future.
Remember very very few homes have anything so special you can price it as you want and a buyer can not find a comparable home down the road for 20% less.
Put yourself in a buyers shoes, money is a hard to come by item, loans are getting hard to come by, and homes are a dime a dozen, why deal with some idiot that thinks his or her home is worth prices of 5 years ago?
So if you need to sell price is all you have in Michigan, and you have to be lower than the people who are around you, I have 70 vacant acres I wanted to sell, every one around me was 3000 an acre which was out of sight, or they dropped slightly to 2000 an acre. I priced my acreage at 1500 an acre and sold in a month.
There are buyers but not many, what can you do to make them look at your product?
Price, and one other little thing, tell your listing agent to put at least a 1000 to 5000 buyers agent bonus, think of it this way, you are an agent sitting in your office, you have the golden commodity in this market, you have a buyer, you look through your listing for your buyer, and what? there are 50 listings that would fit your buyer, but this one offers you 3000 extra if you sell it.
which one would you push on to your buyer?
It all comes down to money, There are few if any listings that are special and have no competition.
loose some now, or more later.

You cannot get any more honest than that!!!!!!!!!!! You are straight up as a drink without a chase! This is truly a reality check for all of us trying to sell. Totally agree with you -- YOU MUST LOWER THE PRICE OF YOUR HOME IN ORDER TO SELL!!! WELL SAID FROM YOUR PROSPECTIVE -- MAY BE TIGHT, BUT IT'S RIGHT!

[Frankawitz]

I read these posts and ask myself why did the people of Michigan settle for a Goverment run on high taxes across the board, wouldn't it be better to down size Goverment and take all those as I like to call them High Class Jobs away from these people and have small businesses do these state jobs with all of the Best Benefits that some of us in Michigan have never seen from our jobs we have worked. How is it that these state employed people have it all, Paid Holidays best Health and Dental,State cars and trucks, Paid sick days, Time and a half, Double Time, etc., why can't they take some cuts, just like here in my city they just gave themselfs a raise(No one came out to Vote) so our property taxes are going up 5 mills so that just added to my taxes by $250.00 and here I am raising two children that are not mine with no help from the mother or the State when it come to these girls. But I feel we have to much Goverment in this state that's why it's so screwed up, I feel people who run for Office should do it for FREE cause most of these bastards are crooks and have made their Millions and now they want the Benny's(Retirement Free and Clear) to live Happly Ever After on the backs of the people's Taxes, and to think these are the ones that WORK FOR THE PEOPLE, yeah right! they work for them selfs and their Families. Look at the Kilpatricks but that's another story. all thru our history the ones in Goverment jobs have the Best of everything, but yet Our Soilders who in my eyes are the ones who WORK FOR THE PEOPLE, get treated the way they do. I think a Soilder in Iraq should make what Senator Levin of Michigan makes and Levin should work for FREE. In the Congress and Senate we need a MAJOR CLEANING OUT. that's where all the PROBLEMS LIE. In the 1970's when the auto industry was having troubles and the Hippies were talking Earth Day. Why didn't they(BIG3) Think Bio Fuels then? or in the 1980's again they were sleeping But now we are all on board with it. But Brazil has been with it since the 1980's HELLO! Goverment is the problem not Business. I would think that with the Great Universties we have here in Michigan we would have Lead the World in this Field, But instead we see Third World Countries doing it, What happened Folks? Was it because so many were caught up in the Keeping up with the Jones and making that Big Money. We lost sight of what was started way back in the 1970's with Earth Day. Like recycling I would say on my street out of 28 houses Only 6 houses recycle the 22 houses don't see any point in it. Sorry for rambling on it just makes me wonder how we're going to do it.

[Zmehappy]

Originally Posted by TaxBait

Where are you at? I heard it was more like 8 - 10 years in the Traverse City area. I see signs up for well over a year on most homes. They just give up I think.

Taxbait, West Michigan area. I'm probably being a little up beat, but it should start turning around. I don't think we will see what we had in the past by any means for some time down the road if ever. Happy Labor Day!

[janette moss]

Originally Posted by Zmehappy

Taxbait, West Michigan area. I'm probably being a little up beat, but it should start turning around. I don't think we will see what we had in the past by any means for some time down the road if ever. Happy Labor Day!

Keep your crystal ball clean!! Sounds like it is pretty optimistic.

[pauley555]

It was not just the high wages paid to workers, it is a lot to do with the retire after 30 years get high pensions and health care for life.
I am for national health care and think we have to do something, but when you have one car company like ford and gm that pay 2500 per car for health care and toyota pays 300 per car, coupled with the fact that the us car makers will not get on board with cars that are reasonably priced and get hight millage, instead they send lobbyist to washington to try to fight against the 35 mpg mandate. The big 3 or what used to be the big three is still trying to play a game that was out of date 20 years ago, it only worked in the late 80s because of fuel going to 89 cents a gallon for 8 years. This allowed the cars that were shrunk to be enlarged back to stupid size again.
They are fighting a stupid fight that they can not win.
Hybr. tec. is a stop gap thats time has come.
Working on any tecnology that will use less fuel is where we should be and now with the limited thinking of us car makers we are 10 years behind.
I do not think we can catch up at this date. and michigan has put all its eggs in the auto industry basket.
Michigan was and is an industrial state. Yes it has some beauty but not any more than many other places and with out the industrial base to oil its economy I think it will fade as far as its apeal to people moving here.
Michigan is not an area that people move to retire.
Time will tell, but I have predicted this exact state of affairs for 6 years.
I see so many young people who grew up in the boom time and think things will always be good, and now the graduate get a good job, house, 2.5 kids, three cars and all the toys, two days after graduation, is over and time to pay the piper.
As industry moves south, and overseas, michigan is going to become a consumer state only.
The chances of something saving the state is much like hoping that some ship will get to the titanic before she goes down.
As my old man used to say, hope in one hand and **** in the other and see which fills first.

[janette moss]

Originally Posted by pauley555

It was not just the high wages paid to workers, it is a lot to do with the retire after 30 years get high pensions and health care for life.
I am for national health care and think we have to do something, but when you have one car company like ford and gm that pay 2500 per car for health care and toyota pays 300 per car, coupled with the fact that the us car makers will not get on board with cars that are reasonably priced and get hight millage, instead they send lobbyist to washington to try to fight against the 35 mpg mandate. The big 3 or what used to be the big three is still trying to play a game that was out of date 20 years ago, it only worked in the late 80s because of fuel going to 89 cents a gallon for 8 years. This allowed the cars that were shrunk to be enlarged back to stupid size again.
They are fighting a stupid fight that they can not win.
Hybr. tec. is a stop gap thats time has come.
Working on any tecnology that will use less fuel is where we should be and now with the limited thinking of us car makers we are 10 years behind.
I do not think we can catch up at this date. and michigan has put all its eggs in the auto industry basket.
Michigan was and is an industrial state. Yes it has some beauty but not any more than many other places and with out the industrial base to oil its economy I think it will fade as far as its apeal to people moving here.
Michigan is not an area that people move to retire.
Time will tell, but I have predicted this exact state of affairs for 6 years.
I see so many young people who grew up in the boom time and think things will always be good, and now the graduate get a good job, house, 2.5 kids, three cars and all the toys, two days after graduation, is over and time to pay the piper.
As industry moves south, and overseas, michigan is going to become a consumer state only.
The chances of something saving the state is much like hoping that some ship will get to the titanic before she goes down.
As my old man used to say, hope in one hand and **** in the other and see which fills first.

Laughing--very well put! You saw the handwriting on the wall before the wall was built. Love your foresight -- too bad your intuition came to fruition

[janette moss]

Originally Posted by Frankawitz

I read these posts and ask myself why did the people of Michigan settle for a Goverment run on high taxes across the board, wouldn't it be better to down size Goverment and take all those as I like to call them High Class Jobs away from these people and have small businesses do these state jobs with all of the Best Benefits that some of us in Michigan have never seen from our jobs we have worked. How is it that these state employed people have it all, Paid Holidays best Health and Dental,State cars and trucks, Paid sick days, Time and a half, Double Time, etc., why can't they take some cuts, just like here in my city they just gave themselfs a raise(No one came out to Vote) so our property taxes are going up 5 mills so that just added to my taxes by $250.00 and here I am raising two children that are not mine with no help from the mother or the State when it come to these girls. But I feel we have to much Goverment in this state that's why it's so screwed up, I feel people who run for Office should do it for FREE cause most of these bastards are crooks and have made their Millions and now they want the Benny's(Retirement Free and Clear) to live Happly Ever After on the backs of the people's Taxes, and to think these are the ones that WORK FOR THE PEOPLE, yeah right! they work for them selfs and their Families. Look at the Kilpatricks but that's another story. all thru our history the ones in Goverment jobs have the Best of everything, but yet Our Soilders who in my eyes are the ones who WORK FOR THE PEOPLE, get treated the way they do. I think a Soilder in Iraq should make what Senator Levin of Michigan makes and Levin should work for FREE. In the Congress and Senate we need a MAJOR CLEANING OUT. that's where all the PROBLEMS LIE. In the 1970's when the auto industry was having troubles and the Hippies were talking Earth Day. Why didn't they(BIG3) Think Bio Fuels then? or in the 1980's again they were sleeping But now we are all on board with it. But Brazil has been with it since the 1980's HELLO! Goverment is the problem not Business. I would think that with the Great Universties we have here in Michigan we would have Lead the World in this Field, But instead we see Third World Countries doing it, What happened Folks? Was it because so many were caught up in the Keeping up with the Jones and making that Big Money. We lost sight of what was started way back in the 1970's with Earth Day. Like recycling I would say on my street out of 28 houses Only 6 houses recycle the 22 houses don't see any point in it. Sorry for rambling on it just makes me wonder how we're going to do it.

You don't have to appologize for rambling on! I think as long as you have "logical wit and wonderment" such as yours. it's alright. Confession is good for the soul. It's good to know that some people wonder the same thing, but just don't express it. Express yourself! That's the point of the forum -- getting different perspectives from different people. KEEP RAMBLING!!!

[M.baily]

My assessor to pushed home prices up, in the alanson area. J. lapeer keeps telling us that homes are selling higher. bull crap. Homes are not selling much at all unless you take down the price.
assors are just trying to keep taxes high for the county.

[michiganbob]

Originally Posted by M.baily

My assessor to pushed home prices up, in the alanson area. J. lapeer keeps telling us that homes are selling higher. bull crap. Homes are not selling much at all unless you take down the price.
assors are just trying to keep taxes high for the county.

The National Association of Realtors have hung their hat on the "median price" stat for the past year which has, until recently, gone up each month. But if you look closer at that number, all it really means is that if three houses sell in your market, and two of them are expensive houses (that may have dropped from their top prices) and one is cheaper, the "median" will go up. That doesn't mean home prices are going up, just the average of those that are selling. And even that stat is now headed south.

Here's a few examples of what I am seeing in the Lansing area: the few homes that seem to be selling are starter homes around $110,000. I know of one house in Lansing (empty, of course, as many are these days) in a borderline neighborhood that started at $157,000, dropped to $127,000 and is now at $112,000. That's almost a 30% drop and it still sits.

Another in Grand Ledge started at $269,000, then to $229,000 and the last I saw was a FSBO for $209,000. Again, still no takers. And a 4 bedroom ranch in a nice neighborhood by the Governor's mansion near the Lansing Country Club that started at $255,000 this Spring, dropped to $245,000 just a month ago is now back on the marked with a new MLS at $210,000. It's empty and the grass in the back yard is about 3 feet high. I don't expect it to sell anytime soon either.

I have also seen a number of homes pull their "For Sale" signs in the past week now that school has started after a fruitless summer. If you don't have to sell it's not a problem but if you lose your job or your mortgage rates skyrocket, you will have a real problem selling unless you really undercut the market. Even then, the examples above (and I am sure there are more) have already cut prices 20 to 30% and still no takers. Will it take a 40 or 50% cut to make a sale?

While I agree with an earlier post that some of this has to do with job loss, another part has to do with the overall downturn in the housing industry. Foreclosures are up (do a search in Yahoo Real Estate for your local area -- you will be shocked!) and it is much, much harder for people to get mortgages. Empty houses that don't sell will likely go into foreclosure, which will dump more houses on the market at lower prices. Lower prices will make it harder for those who want to re-finance (because their rates are resetting higher) to get a loan to cover the high prices they paid two or three years ago. If you owe $200,000 on a house that is only worth $180,000 on the market right now, you will need to bring 20K to the table at closing or you won't get that 30 year fixed rate loan you were hoping for. Bush's plan might help a few folks, but for many it is already too late.

On top of all that, builders are still adding more inventory to the pile with condos and housing developments that have been in the works for years coming onto the market. They had contracts for that work and needed to finish them to have any hope of selling. They are now adding to the problem by lowering their prices to try and get rid of their inventory. One example in the Lansing area: a brand new 3br, 1500 sq ft house--with lot--can be had for $119,000 . . . maybe less. Why would anyone buy an older home at those prices?

Do not kid yourself folks: think in terms of years, not months, before things get better.

[Giesela]

I don't think real estate is going to get better for a year or so. At some point people who are trying to wait things out won't be able to anymore. Credit will be tight for awhile but once the lenders stablize they will start giving out loans again though not as easily.
If you have to sell, try not to follow the market down. Lower your price as much as you can to sell now. Every month on market is another mortgage payment. What's the days on market in your area? What else is for sale and how does your price compare?

I think we are headed into another long term slump nationwide. Recession? Depression? Not sure. But once Bush is out of office I think we'll be schocked to find out what the war has really cost. It will take a few years to figure that out and will be bad news followed by bad news. I don't think we've begun to hear the whole story. Our national debt is crazy, foreign banks practically own us. I personally hope Democrats don't win only because I'm sick of them taking the blame when they follow Republicans in office.