[magellan]

Originally Posted by Cliffie

Tell you what, I finally went to the Dept of Labor site and looked at the state's unemployment figures. They are not nearly as bad as I thought. They continue to rise, but very slowly. We are only 3% worse than the country as a whole. At this writing we have only 7.4% unemployment -- and I know that figure means nothing if you are one of the 7.4%. Another way to look at that is to see it as Michigan's workforce being 92.6% employed.

That 7.4% also applies to the state as a whole. Most of the metro areas in the Southern LP are between 4.8 and 6.0 (except metro Detroit at 7 or so), which is essentially "full employment". If we had a red hot housing market like many Southern cities, which are more likely to be recipients of baby boomers retiring, (or at least they HAD red hot housing markets up until this summer), the increase in construction industry jobs would probably bring our unemployment down to the 3 - 4% range.

MLive.com: Everything Michigan

But before people start saying I have my head in the sand, I understand things are bad and probably won't be great for a while (for Michigan as a whole).

[kaypurdue]

Heck, there are even a few positive signs in little old Flint. Businesses are slowly but surely trickling into downtown. They are small service businesses providing lower paying jobs, but they are something at least. On a couple of streets, new houses are being put in where old ones were demolished. That's the kind of land use I like to see, as opposed to continuing to build way out into the suburbs.

[UpperPeninsulaRon]

That 7.4% also applies to the state as a whole. Most of the metro areas in the Southern LP are between 4.8 and 6.0 (except metro Detroit at 7 or so), which is essentially "full employment". If we had a red hot housing market like many Southern cities, which are more likely to be recipients of baby boomers retiring, (or at least they HAD red hot housing markets up until this summer), the increase in construction industry jobs would probably bring our unemployment down to the 3 - 4% range.

Magellan correctly points out the concept of full employment which never means 100% of people are working. A component of unemployment is called frictional and that is the people who are technically unemployed but not really, truly looking for work. A lot of the people who are looking to leave the area fall into this category. The September results below shows that 7% of people in September were listed as unemployed. Of these, typically 3-4% fall into the frictional category so we really are in the range of 4% unemployment.

Another interesting statistic from the chart below is that the Upper Peninsula's unemployment rate is actually lower than that of the state as a whole.


September unemployment rates by region:
Ann Arbor -- 5.1
Battle Creek -- 6.8
Bay City -- 6.7
Detroit -- 7.7
Flint -- 8.3
Grand Rapids -- 6.0
Holland -- 5.6
Jackson -- 7.7
Kalamazoo-Portage -- 5.6
Lansing-East Lansing -- 5.8
Monroe -- 6.3
Muskegon -- 7.3
Niles-Benton Harbor -- 6.4
Saginaw -- 7.1
Upper Peninsula -- 6.3
Northwest lower Michigan -- 6.5
Statewide -- 7.0

[Cliffie]

I think that's terrific news about Flint, and I hope it picks up speed. That town has been floundering for so long!

I want to remind the doomcriers of something important. When we were in the Great Depression, we had over 30% unemployment, in an era before two-income families. If hubby lost his job, that was the whole enchilada, right there. And people tended to have much bigger families in those days. Those are some brutal numbers, but people survived. In the past few years we've had two stock-market "adjustments," as they call them now, much more severe than the Crash of '29 that left a third of the country out of work, and we're so much better off it isn't even funny. My parents lived thru the Depression and the current situation isn't even on their radar, it's so mild in comparison.

[tbowers241]

Does anybody know how or where the Department of Labor Statistics gets their data? Is that just the number of people who are collecting unemployment or does that include the people who have exhausted their unemployment and not yet found employment, and people who have given up looking for employment and so? I'm curious because the Department of Labor Statistics says that in my area the unemployment rate is 10.0% but the U.S. Census Bureau says that it is 22.1% I'd really know an accurate number?

[magellan]

Originally Posted by tbowers241

Does anybody know how or where the Department of Labor Statistics gets their data? Is that just the number of people who are collecting unemployment or does that include the people who have exhausted their unemployment and not yet found employment, and people who have given up looking for employment and so? I'm curious because the Department of Labor Statistics says that in my area the unemployment rate is 10.0% but the U.S. Census Bureau says that it is 22.1% I'd really know an accurate number?

Do you have a link source for the 22% you saw? That might help some of us do some digging for you.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics does a survey, and counts all of those who are in the "Labor Force" (actively working or seeking work) toward the employment/unemployment rate. It has nothing to do with whether you're collecting unemployment insurance.

[pnutbujelly]

Then numbers do not lie, and they are not good for the United States and Michigan in particular. The big employer is on the verge of collapsing [auto industry] I have heard this before, one person here said that there was a line at the ice cream store so ergo things were good. This is anecdotal talk. I am not being critical of one persons positive thinking, if it make you feel good to think things are turning around fine. But when the stern of the titanic lifts out of the water is not a sign that the ship is getting lighter. So it is with the economy. Even is one person or several put money into a community is not a sign that things are bouncing back. There has to be a sea change to stop the slide we are in. We did not get here over night and things will not turn around over night. I was told by an economist that its much like winding up a clock, it winds down slow, and takes time to wind up. There is nothing that seems to be changing the down turn at this time. We as a people need to embrace change and see change we can believe in to change our pessimistic collective attitude.

[MonkeyButler7000]

I think that one good thing about all of this mess, especially with housing, is that houses are becoming affordable in again. In some areas of the country, home prices were so out of control that there was no way a young family could afford a decent home while living within their means. I know eveyone is talking about foreclosures, but maybe because I am younger and want to buy a home within the next two years I have a different perspective on things.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by pnutbujelly

Then numbers do not lie, and they are not good for the United States and Michigan in particular. The big employer is on the verge of collapsing [auto industry] I have heard this before, one person here said that there was a line at the ice cream store so ergo things were good. This is anecdotal talk. I am not being critical of one persons positive thinking, if it make you feel good to think things are turning around fine. But when the stern of the titanic lifts out of the water is not a sign that the ship is getting lighter. So it is with the economy. Even is one person or several put money into a community is not a sign that things are bouncing back. There has to be a sea change to stop the slide we are in. We did not get here over night and things will not turn around over night. I was told by an economist that its much like winding up a clock, it winds down slow, and takes time to wind up. There is nothing that seems to be changing the down turn at this time. We as a people need to embrace change and see change we can believe in to change our pessimistic collective attitude.

Changing a pessimistic attitude begins with the person in the mirror, upandrunning. I was wondering how you thought typing the same paragraph about a hundred times was going to change things? Maybe on the 112th post it will work? Maybe the 115th?

People like you don't change anything. You're just here to report from the sidelines about what a lousy job everyone else is doing. But interestingly, after I've asked you to leave this site multiple times, and after you've been banned multiple times by multiple moderators, you still continue to come back. It's too bad you're not as passionate about the economy as you are on getting back on this site.

[Cliffie]

I heard on Saturday from a co-worker that the fabled metropolis of Fowlerville, MI is getting a Meijer's AND a Super Wal-Mart. And I also heard that McAuley System is completely rebuilding and enlarging the only hospital in Livingston County. I'm not sure when any of this is supposed to happen, but when it does it will mean JOBS, JOBS, JOBS.

What I don't get is why a county with only 150,000 people needs 3 Meijer's stores, 2 Wal-Marts AND a Costco Warehouse, but who am I to question the bigwigs?