Michigan only state to loose population (Grant, Atlanta: relocate, real estate, maintenance)

[escindamoonlight]

That is besides RI which is not a proper state it is a county at least by size.

here is the AP post.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Louisiana appears to be rebounding from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, gaining 50,000 residents in the year ending July 1, according to new Census Bureau state population estimates released Thursday.

Moderator cut: copyright

Michigan has some very bad times ahead of itself. I hope you all have peope who can give an acurate value of your homes because they are dropping like what did was that song that chevy used............ Oh ya,, Like a ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!

[trudawg]

Not surprising really. I relocated out of MI last year here to AZ, but still own my home in MI, and will continue to do so as long as I have renters.

[malamute]

Michigan will probably be a good state for retirees or at least those who want to summer there and winter in Florida. The lowered property values will be beneficial to them.

The biggest problem though is not that people are leaving, it's the working people who are leaving and those living off the government will be staying because government benefits are more generous in Michigan.

[TwoSticks]

Originally Posted by malamute

Michigan will probably be a good state for retirees... The lowered property values will be beneficial to them.

That's certainly true but the taxes there are causing more than a few noses to wrinkle. I know people a few years older that are looking at retirement properties and would love to go to a place like Michigan but won't only because of the high cost of Michigan's government.

It would be a shoo-in for me too as I was born and raised there, but lately I've even begun to wonder if I could afford to live there anymore.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by TwoSticks

That's certainly true but the taxes there are causing more than a few noses to wrinkle. I know people a few years older that are looking at retirement properties and would love to go to a place like Michigan but won't only because of the high cost of Michigan's government.

It would be a shoo-in for me too as I was born and raised there, but lately I've even begun to wonder if I could afford to live there.

Think Michigan will be a awesome buy in a few years.

Now with the taxes. Well if there are less people living there. Then there is less need for services. Which will lead to less taxation at least if this losing population continues. Even greedy politicians will have to lower taxes eventually if few people live in the state. Yes?

[Frank the Tank]

Originally Posted by baystater

Think Michigan will be a awesome buy in a few years.

Now with the taxes. Well if there are less people living there. Then there is less need for services. Which will lead to less taxation at least if this losing population continues. Even greedy politicians will have to lower taxes eventually if few people live in the state. Yes?

Extremely doubtful. The government would provide services in proportion to the population. So, while total tax dollars spent might be lower with less people, the tax rate for each person that remains will stay more or less the same or even go up because there are baseline fixed costs that have to be spread among fewer people (i.e. the cost of one fire engine would have to be spread among 10,000 people as opposed to 15,000 people, which would make the tax rate go up).

At the same time, any location is only an "awesome buy" if there is reason to believe demand will eventually exceed supply in the future. As I've said many times before, cheap real estate prices alone mean nothing since (1) if that were the case, people would be flocking to places like Youngtown, Ohio or Danville, Illinois, which obviously isn't happening and (2) Texas, Georgia and Tennessee have plenty of cheap real estate, as well, with a lot more jobs and better weather (for the average person that is bothered more by cold winters than hot summers). People don't move just because real estate is cheap - you need to offer a lot more, with a strong economic infrastructure being at the top of the list. Like any other goods or services, real estate prices are a reflection of supply of demand. Real estate is cheap either because (a) people don't want to live there or (b) the area has enough room keep expanding so that supply keeps up with the demand (as with many Southern cities).

[magellan]

Another thread started by an ex-Michigander who can't seem to let go of his/her past.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/searc...archid=2965234

Not happy in Ar-Kansas either?

Please find something else to do with your time Esci and enjoy your new life in your new home state, for all of our sakes.

[mrroberts]

Magellan, in the words of jack Nickolson,,,YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH LOL. Why dont you attack CNN or API. or maybe NPR, just dont like it when the truth hits you in the old bread basket do ya?

[baystater]

[quote]

Originally Posted by Frank the Tank

Extremely doubtful. The government would provide services in proportion to the population. So, while total tax dollars spent might be lower with less people, the tax rate for each person that remains will stay more or less the same or even go up because there are baseline fixed costs that have to be spread among fewer people (i.e. the cost of one fire engine would have to be spread among 10,000 people as opposed to 15,000 people, which would make the tax rate go up).

True while you will still need some of the fix costs there will be a need for less of those fix costs. As with the example of fire trucks you will need less fire trucks to serve the people. Now this may not not lower taxes in fact this would probably keep things pretty much even. But what about some other fix costs that will lower with a lower population. Schools for instance. Now I much admit I not sure on the number when it comes to who moving out. But I assuming a lot of the people are retirees and families with young children. If I'm wrong please correct me. Now with that assumption in mine. If you had, let say a school that was built for 10,000 and you lost a quarter to a half of the student of that school. What are you probably going to do. Well from what I've seen they usually combine with another school and close that building. More than likely the building will be sold (If it can be) or will be left to rot. Basically no staff no maintenance for that building. So that type of fixed cost will be taken off the books and will help lead toward lower taxes.
And anyways non-fixed costs are that thing that really drive up taxes. We need this service or that service. Trust me growing up in the northeast showed me how much a community can waste in tax dollar on stuff we don't need. sometimes in pitiful on the waste I've seen.

At the same time, any location is only an "awesome buy" if there is reason to believe demand will eventually exceed supply in the future. As I've said many times before, cheap real estate prices alone mean nothing since (1) if that were the case, people would be flocking to places like Youngtown, Ohio or Danville, Illinois, which obviously isn't happening

To be honest I know nothing of Danville. So I really can't comment. As with Youngstown. I believe you are correct there is nothing in Youngstown that would drive me to buy there. But Cleveland on the other hand now that's a different story. Yes it's a city in decay yes but is close to lake Erie and being that close to a large body of water and a already in place infrastructure will soon or later reattract people to live there. Grant it's not going to be overnight. It will take years to get things in place for things to make for a come back but I (in my mind) is going to happen. Of course Cleavland must take great strides to attract businesses. I would say fledgling industries or new technologies companies would be the best. Granted I could be wrong but it would be a place I would make a long term bet on.

and (2) Texas, Georgia and Tennessee have plenty of cheap real estate, as well, with a lot more jobs and better weather (for the average person that is bothered more by cold winters than hot summers). People don't move just because real estate is cheap - you need to offer a lot more, with a strong economic infrastructure being at the top of the list.

If I remember correct Texas had a horrible run during the 1980's and lot of people left. The Texas bust had some interesting parallels with what some are calling the Michigan bust. No jobs, No opportunities, etc. But now Texas in some parts At least in Austin, and San Antonio they are doing well. Who's to say in 20 year some cities in Michigan won't make a come back. Like I said earlier Michigan would be a place I would make a long term bet on. Buy low sell high. Also with Texas I'm thinking a lot of people that are moving down there are retirees that are looking to own a home right on the gulf coast. It a nice area and I can understand there want to live near the coast. Hey I almost bought there, and yeah I thought most of the coast was beautiful. But and let me tell you a true story that really happened to me that show the darker side of the gulf coast. So OK so it's July 2005 and I decided I'd like to buy near the gulf coast for cheap money. So I found this old shack in this little tiny town called Sabine Pass. I decided to buy and put in a offer. at first the offer was accepted but later that was some type of family dispute and the deal fell through. Granted I was a little bummed that I didn't get the home at the time because it was so close to the gulf. Now let fast forward to September 24 2005. So what special about that date you say. well that was the day Hurricane Rita land in Texas. And Guess where Ground Zero was. Yep Sabine Pass. The town was annihilated, I believe there was 12 feet of water covering the town after the hurricane. Well needless to say I was very happy I didn't get that home because I would have for the most part lost my investment. Plus on top of that didn't Rita cause a mass panic in Houston? Basically causing a massive traffic jam out of city. In fact if the hurricane did hit Houston at the time, because of that traffic jam many people probably would have lost there lives. One other thing about Texas. Aren't hey having big trouble in the valley region with the drug cartels in Mexico right now. I been hearing there have been a lot of shootout with law enforcement on both sides of the boarder. Now with Georgia. Look Atlanta running dry of water. Soon they are going to run out. Then what. I don't thing Hotlanta is going to be so hot anymore. If fact I think a lot of cities in the southwest and perhaps some in the southeast luster will tarnish as water supplies are strained every further.

Like any other goods or services, real estate prices are a reflection of supply of demand. Real estate is cheap either because (a) people don't want to live there or (b) the area has enough room keep expanding so that supply keeps up with the demand (as with many Southern cities).

I not sure if all the people that are leaving the state are leaving with joy in their heart. They may have to leave because of economic conditions or a job transfer. While I don't doubt there are quite a few that are leaving because they don't like Michigan. Of course some of those who leave with that attitude of Michigan suck. My sooner rather than later find themselves missing home. I know been through that myself with my home state of Massachusetts.
With the ability to expand in southern cities. Well that all depends I mean look Again at Georgia and there water crisis. Georgia can't even supply enough water to is population. This is a big problem. Of course This is why I never got into investing in Nevada and west Texas. There simply not enough water to support a large population of people. So some places in the south maybe limited in how far they can expand due to there natural resources.

[amatrine]

That is a very good point. One of the things that decided our move to MI.
If things in the country got very bad, the power grid was down, where is it best to be?
I am in Arizona. This area, I think at least 1/3 the population would die with no AC. If there was mass panic, there are two main highways out of this city. It would be a nightmare. In MI, you have water. If there is no heat, at least I have my wood burning stove, and can even hunt . We would survive there. Of course I do not go looking for the worst scenerio, but if it did happen, it is just not common sense to be in the middle of an overpopulated desert who relies on thier water from Colorado. ( Salt River ) ....

Anyway, going to be there in a couple months and looking forward to it We can actually afford a house there, not here. I do not want a house here in AZ anyway, to me they all look the same , devoid of character. I do not want to pay 300k I can not afford for a matchbox anyway, thankyou The home I am rented when I moved in about 5 years ago would have sold for 100k, and now is valued at almost 200k and has no updates since it was built. It was built in 1973, and still looks it, though I have at least updated it paint wise, and tiled the bathroom one day when I bored because I just could not stand it.