[Michigantown]

Originally Posted by chh

The data looks like great news for every area except the UP and I-75 north, both their declines seem to be accelerating slightly. Other than that, most counties seem to be doing much better than they were just a few years ago, a few that surprised me were Berrien county only losing 0.06%, my county, Calhoun, gaining pop for 2 consecutive years and how much Allegan county is benefiting from it's proximity to Kzoo and GR. Can't wait to see what future years will hold for Michigan.

I am also pretty sure most of that loss is from Benton Harbor.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by chh

The data looks like great news for every area except the UP and I-75 north, both their declines seem to be accelerating slightly. Other than that, most counties seem to be doing much better than they were just a few years ago, a few that surprised me were Berrien county only losing 0.06%, my county, Calhoun, gaining pop for 2 consecutive years and how much Allegan county is benefiting from it's proximity to Kzoo and GR. Can't wait to see what future years will hold for Michigan.

Why does Berrien County surprise you? By rights I think it should be a population gainer. It's a small metro area with a massive corporation (Whirlpool) with excellent proximity to Chicago.

[westernwilly]

Originally Posted by mjlo

Next up is the southern lower portion of the state that holds about 85% of the states population.

It was a little harder to fit some counties in. There are 5 regions broken up here, Southwest(Kalamazoo to Benton Harbor) West Central( Grand Rapids CSA) The Capital region (Lansing area and one county each above and below) and the I-75 corridor. Originally we had the I-75 corridor as one region but as we broke out the data we realized there was a pretty stark difference from north to south so we split it accordingly. I-75 corridor south is Metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and a couple of border counties. I-75 North is Flint and the Tri-Cities along with the upper half of the thumb into Saginaw Bay. 4 of these 5 regions had population gains. The I-75 north region lost more people than all other regions combined estimating to have lost 26k people since the 2010 census. Metro Detroit is stabalizing it's growth while the auto centric cities to the north clearly need an economic overhaul. How that is accomplished is a decades long undertaking if it can be done.

The Capitol counties


West and Southwest (Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and the Lakeshore down to the Indiana border)


The I-75 Corridor


It may be hard to follow because the dates are missing from the screen shots below is the order they are arranged in

Column 2010 pop /2013est /2014est /number gain 2013-2014 / % gain 2013-2014 /number gain 2010-2014/ % gain 2010-2014

Nice research and presentation. My only issue with it is that Allegan and Barry Counties are actually considered to part of Southwest Michigan and not West Michigan. Further, much of those counties growths are in the Kalamazoo suburban areas.....ie. Allegan with Otsego, Plainwell, and Doster Lake and with Barry it is in Gull Lake, Hickory Corners and Delton.
Other than that, it looks great!

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by westernwilly

Nice research and presentation. My only issue with it is that Allegan and Barry Counties are actually considered to part of Southwest Michigan and not West Michigan. Further, much of those counties growths are in the Kalamazoo suburban areas.....ie. Allegan with Otsego, Plainwell, and Doster Lake and with Barry it is in Gull Lake, Hickory Corners and Delton.
Other than that, it looks great!

Actually that is incorrect. Barry County has been part of the Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA since at least 2003. Meaning at least 25% of it's commuters, go into Kent County for work. If more of them were to go into Kalamazoo or Calhoun then it would be designated in the opposite direction.

Allegan is an independent Micropolitan area and not designated in any Metropolitan area. The designation for Allegan county is jacked up. It's a perfect example of when census statistical methods fail. Allegan County is designated as the "Holland Michigan Micropolitan area".(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_Areas See number 15 on the list) Micropolitan areas are always named for the largest city in the county. Technically about 12sq miles of the city of Holland sit within in Allegan's border. If you live in Holland and live south of 32nd st you are in the Holland Michigan Micropolitan area. If you live north of 32nd st. you are in the Grand Rapids-Wyoming Metropolitan area.

However when looking at the Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland CSA Allegan county is added to it. What that means is while both Allegan and Barry Counties have strong ties to Kalamazoo, they are still border counties to Kent and Ottawa which still statistically have the larger pull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_...atistical_Area

[chh]

I always thought it was weird Holland is split down the middle between counties.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by chh

I always thought it was weird Holland is split down the middle between counties.

It's not that uncommon, Both Lansing and Traverse City's borders spill over into other counties. Hollands however may actually be the only city in the country physically divided into different statistical areas because of it. I don't have anything to back that assertion up, it's just an educated hunch.

[Republic of Michigan]

Do you think that Kalamazoo will ever be added to Grand Rapids' CSA?

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by Republic of Michigan

Do you think that Kalamazoo will ever be added to Grand Rapids' CSA?

CSA is Defined as follows:

A Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is a grouping of adjacent metropolitan and/or micropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States and Puerto Rico. The United States Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines combined statistical areas based on social and economic ties measured by commuting patterns between adjacent MSAs. The areas that combine retain their own designations as metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas within the larger combined statistical area. The primary distinguishing factor between a CSA and an MSA is that the social and economic ties between the individual MSAs within a CSA are at lower levels than between the counties within an MSA.[1] CSAs represent multiple metropolitan or micropolitan areas that have a moderate degree of employment interchange. CSAs often represent regions with overlapping labor and media markets.

I suppose it's possible. Kalamazoo and Kent/Ottawa Counties do have a small base of commuter interchange. They already are connected as a DMA (media market). In order for that happen I would think we would have to see more suburban style growth in Allegan and Barry Counties. Vs the exurban growth currently happening. While Allegan County is growing, it's growing at about half the rate of Kent, Ottawa and Kalamazoo Counties according to estimates. To me that means the bulk of the growth is still happening in the immediate urban areas of Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. So if we ever were to see a CSA I don't think it would be designated until the 2033 realignment at the earliest.

Keep in mind you're essentially talking a CSA from Muskegon south to Kzoo and possibly Battle Creek. At that point the only county separating Lansing and Grand Rapids is Ionia, which is already a commuter county into both metros. Lansing is separated by a county to Flints MSA and directly touches Livingston the western edge of Metro Detroit. Genesee (Flint's MSA) Has been and is continuing to evolve into a commuter county into Oakland. It's not out of the realm of being designated into the Detroit MSA from being a satellite in its CSA. If Michigan continues to diversify and weather economic cycles with more stability, It's likely we will see a steady and continual increase in population. Like we have seen since the auto bailout. The possibility of seeing the corridors of I-94, I-75, I-96 and US 131 merge into a little megalopolis could happen. 10-12 million people in continuous suburban and exurban development.

Of course by the time any of that happens the cities in the sunbelt will have all tripplied in size, rendering any of those statistics unimpressive

[MS313]

Originally Posted by mjlo

CSA is Defined as follows:



I suppose it's possible. Kalamazoo and Kent/Ottawa Counties do have a small base of commuter interchange. They already are connected as a DMA (media market). In order for that happen I would think we would have to see more suburban style growth in Allegan and Barry Counties. Vs the exurban growth currently happening. While Allegan County is growing, it's growing at about half the rate of Kent, Ottawa and Kalamazoo Counties according to estimates. To me that means the bulk of the growth is still happening in the immediate urban areas of Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. So if we ever were to see a CSA I don't think it would be designated until the 2033 realignment at the earliest.

Keep in mind you're essentially talking a CSA from Muskegon south to Kzoo and possibly Battle Creek. At that point the only county separating Lansing and Grand Rapids is Ionia, which is already a commuter county into both metros. Lansing is separated by a county to Flints MSA and directly touches Livingston the western edge of Metro Detroit. Genesee (Flint's MSA) Has been and is continuing to evolve into a commuter county into Oakland. It's not out of the realm of being designated into the Detroit MSA from being a satellite in its CSA. If Michigan continues to diversify and weather economic cycles with more stability, It's likely we will see a steady and continual increase in population. Like we have seen since the auto bailout. The possibility of seeing the corridors of I-94, I-75, I-96 and US 131 merge into a little megalopolis could happen. 10-12 million people in continuous suburban and exurban development.

Of course by the time any of that happens the cities in the sunbelt will have all tripplied in size, rendering any of those statistics unimpressive

By that time the sunbelt boom will probably be looong gone. One thing you learn from history, population booms don't last forever. And with the problems many of them are having now I don't think they can even sustain a population 3 times it's current size.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by MS313

By that time the sunbelt boom will probably be looong gone. One thing you learn from history, population booms don't last forever. And with the problems many of them are having now I don't think they can even sustain a population 3 times it's current size.

I think we will probably see the Sunbelt boom in the Desert SW and California slow down. From the stand point of resources and high taxes people have already started to reverse migrate. As for the rest of the Sunbelt cities in Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Caroline ect... You're right in that trends shift, booms come and go. But these states aren't dealing with quite the crisis for resources, coupled with the fact that they are more competitive for business and taxes, I would wager a few more decades before those trends would shift.