[mjlo]

Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie

mjlo - I love your population estimates. Thanks so much for doing such an awesome summary every year. Your analysis is also very interesting. As an aside, do you mind if I share your image post elsewhere? I can credit you (well, as "mjlo"), if you like.

I've remarked before that I do see population growth. I use a super unscientific and anecdotal observation based on out of state license plates, but this last year the number of out of state license plates on commuter thoroughfares has exploded. In addition to this, real estate values, lack of availability, and the massive number of people I meet who "just moved here/back.." has really taken off this year. I do believe these census estimates are accurate, or possible even understating the actual population growth - at least for Oakland & Macomb Counties.

Finally, this seems to be the website to discuss this kind of census stuff, but one estimate on the Census site actually shows growth in Wayne County. No really, here's the link:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...igan/PST045216

Am I reading that right? Those numbers are right there, on the census website:

Population estimates, July 1, 2017, (V2017) 1,753,616
Population estimates, July 1, 2016, (V2016) 1,749,366

Last I checked, 1,753,616 > 1,749,366. That would be ... significant. That would suggest growth in Detroit, something I don't think anyone anticipated to be a thing in 2017. Is there some misinterpretation on my part (I have had a couple of glasses of wine this evening..) or am I using a questionable data set? I know all the news outlets reported a slight loss for Wayne County, but... that's not what the census estimates that I'm linking to above are telling us.

You are quite welcome to repost and you don't necessarily need to give me credit. If you want a more detailed breakdown by county I can post it for sure as I dumbed down the data this year. I'm not sure if I could believe that Wayne County gained last year. I suppose it's possible but all official census docs i've seen show the smallest loss since 97. What is beyond clear is that momentum in Detroit metro is gaining fast. If trends hold true 2018 should be a banner year!

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by canudigit

Monroe County, where I live, gained some 400+ people during this cycle which sounds good on the surface, and is good for Michigan. However, if you look at it regionally, the vast majority of those people just moved over the line from Lucas County, Ohio to escape living in Toledo, which is losing people (over 1,300 during this cycle for Lucas County, Ohio). Therefore, good for Michigan but not necessarily good for the region, since Toledo is the go to "big city" for most people living in the Michigan counties that border Ohio.

It's weird to me to think that Toledo is the big city for those in Monroe county, when they also border Wayne County which is the seat of a monster metro in comparison. However Monroe County is anomalous as sandwiched between a 4million person metro area, and a 700,000 person metro area and barely has any suburban spill over from either. I've often wondered why Toledo never grew north, and Detroit never oozed south.

[Geo-Aggie]

As Detroiters were considering going south for suburbanization, they got to Taylor and nope'd right out of it. They turned right around, and went north or west instead. Wyandotte is doing what it can to try and change people's perception of Downriver, but Taylortucky is a tough stereotype to overcome. As for Toledo, it probably has to do with that whole Ohio and Michigan hate each other thing. Also, who's going to pay $1,000 more a year for car insurance if they can avoid it by simply staying south of an imaginary line?

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie

As Detroiters were considering going south for suburbanization, they got to Taylor and nope'd right out of it. They turned right around, and went north or west instead. Wyandotte is doing what it can to try and change people's perception of Downriver, but Taylortucky is a tough stereotype to overcome. As for Toledo, it probably has to do with that whole Ohio and Michigan hate each other thing. Also, who's going to pay $1,000 more a year for car insurance if they can avoid it by simply staying south of an imaginary line?

Yeah....but Toledo was originally part of Michigan, while the UP was not. We lost it in a war. Look at the southern border of Michigan, starting where the western Ohio border T's with the southern Michigan border, and you will see that it is lower on the western corner than the eastern corner.

If you live Downriver, Toledo is a doable daily commute. Should be part of the CSA of Detroit.....but I am sure it does not meet the commuting requirements.

[Metrohound]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

Yeah....but Toledo was originally part of Michigan, while the UP was not. We lost it in a war. Look at the southern border of Michigan, starting where the western Ohio border T's with the southern Michigan border, and you will see that it is lower on the western corner than the eastern corner.

This is not entirely true. The far eastern part of the UP (Sault Ste Marie, St Ignace, etc) was originally to be part of the new state of Michigan. Michigan gained the rest of the UP (Marquette, Escanaba, Houghton, Ironwood, etc) in the Toledo settlement.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by Metrohound

This is not entirely true. The far eastern part of the UP (Sault Ste Marie, St Ignace, etc) was originally to be part of the new state of Michigan. Michigan gained the rest of the UP (Marquette, Escanaba, Houghton, Ironwood, etc) in the Toledo settlement.

Ahhh..you are right. I think we got the Western part by subtracting it from Wisconsin territory?

[joemits]

Originally Posted by mjlo

A couple of points to note:

Upper Peninsula:
The UP is far and away the most inconsistent portion of the state for population trends. One year it barely looses, the next year it triples. That continues this year. 2016 Estimates showed a 2400 person loss, while in 2017 it barely lost 600. The UP is the part of the state I am least familiar with. I would imagine the biggest contributor to those losses would be in the natural growth rate (births vs. deaths). During the copper boom 100 years ago, there were several counties that had 3 or 4 times as many people as they do now. I am tempted to do a study on the long term population trends of the UP. Based on what i've seen it could have had nearly 1 million people at point. It is now flirting with dipping below 300,000 people by the 2020 census.

The U.P. has always peaked around the 300,000 mark. The iron boom came after the copper boom and was in more places than the Keweenaw county copper boom.

[Metrohound]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

Ahhh..you are right. I think we got the Western part by subtracting it from Wisconsin territory?

You are correct about the Wisconsin Territory. I believe the boundary ran due north from the northernmost point of Lake Michigan (near Naubinway) to Lake Superior. Someone, please correct me if I am wrong about this.

[canudigit]

Originally Posted by mjlo

It's weird to me to think that Toledo is the big city for those in Monroe county, when they also border Wayne County which is the seat of a monster metro in comparison. However Monroe County is anomalous as sandwiched between a 4million person metro area, and a 700,000 person metro area and barely has any suburban spill over from either. I've often wondered why Toledo never grew north, and Detroit never oozed south.

The most populous area in Monroe County, Bedford Township, which is made up of the villages of Temperance, Samaria, and Lambertville, actually is suburban spillover from Toledo and is still growing. The only thing that has kept it from growing into a full fledged city with even more people is its strict zoning laws put in place to protect it from complete urbanization. For example, Walmart attempted to build a store there a few years ago and was completely shot down. Not counting the small clothing department in the Kroger Marketplace store in Lambertville, you can't even buy a pair of pants or shoes in this community of over 30,000 people (as opposed to the city of Monroe's 21,000 and fairly stagnant population) and they intend to keep it that way. There isn't one car dealership, and they also don't even have their own police department, they contract with the Monroe County sheriff (and crime is still very low).

Considering that Bedford sits right on the border with Toledo, one can be at a job, mall, doctor's office, hospital, restaurant, concert venue, etc. in Toledo in just a few minutes, as opposed to driving to Wayne County where the closest downriver communities are at least 40 minutes away and don't offer any of those amenities. It's a no brainer.

Property taxes are much lower in Bedford Township than in a comparable suburb of Toledo located in Ohio so the higher cost of car insurance in Michigan is really not a deterrent to moving over the border as someone suggested, and the whole "Ohio/Michigan hate" thing is completely tongue in cheek and doesn't affect people's daily lives in any way, especially considering that it is based on something as irrelevant on a daily basis as a college sports rivalry . People constantly cross back and forth over the border with nary a shot fired...

The other communities in Monroe County that border Toledo would probably be just as sprawling and filled with Mcmansions were it not for their strict regulations on building, such as requiring a minimum five acre lot to build a house, and they are equally dependent on Toledo as their go to "big city".

[Giesela]

I've seen mention of GR's housing shortage but I've been looking at Traverse City zillow pretty intensely for the last 2-3 years and that market went completely nuts about 1 and half ago and continues to do so. 200,000 houses 3 years ago are asking for 350,000, inventory is down with very little hitting the market. The whole town is turning into one big rental and air bnb place. Not even sure how that gets counted for population growth? New houses don't really equate to population growth per se if its seasonal rentals.

So its disappointing and surprising frankly, to see Alpena lose population. I get that the west side is nicer, more beach, more lakes, vineyards etc. but I think more people would be heading to the east side if there were enough people to support more medical infrastructure. At least that is a big one for me. Same with the UP. The new hospital in Marquette seems to be having a lot of problems.