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Old 03-22-2018, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Metro Detroit
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This according to the FreePress report of census estimates for population change from July 2016 to July 2017:

Fewer people are leaving Wayne County, census data show

The three counties with the largest gains are:
Kent County added 5,685 people — a growth rate of 0.9% to 648,594 residents
Oakland County gained 5,074 people — an increase of 0.4% to 1,250,836 residents.
Macomb County added 3,872 people — an increase of 0.5% to 871,375 residents.
The largest % growth occurred in Kalkaska County (suburban Traverse City) which experienced a growth of 1.9% to 17,634 residents.

Most of the non growth counties are around the Saginaw Bay or in the Western part of the UP.

As for the three biggest losers of population:
Wayne County lost 2,982 people — a decline of 0.2% to 1,753,616 residents.
Genesee County lost 1,222 people — a decline of 0.3% to 407.385 residents.
Tuscola County (east of Saginaw) lost 471 people — a decline of 0.9% to 52,764 residents.
The largest % loss occurred in Keweenaw County (northern tip of UP) which experienced a decline of 1.6% to 2,105 residents.

Overall Metro Detroit adds about 7,000 residents - or about 10,000 residents, if you consider Washtenaw County, which grew by 0.8%, to be part of the metro. Other interesting notes are a 1.3% population growth in Allegan County (Allegan/Saugatuck), 1.1% growth in Ottawa County (Grand Haven/Holland), 0.8% growth in Ingham County (Lansing), and Kalamazoo County rounds out the growing counties with mid to large urban areas, adding 0.7%.
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Old 03-22-2018, 10:20 AM
 
13,807 posts, read 9,103,761 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie View Post
This according to the FreePress report of census estimates for population change from July 2016 to July 2017:

Fewer people are leaving Wayne County, census data show

The three counties with the largest gains are:
Kent County added 5,685 people — a growth rate of 0.9% to 648,594 residents
Oakland County gained 5,074 people — an increase of 0.4% to 1,250,836 residents.
Macomb County added 3,872 people — an increase of 0.5% to 871,375 residents.
The largest % growth occurred in Kalkaska County (suburban Traverse City) which experienced a growth of 1.9% to 17,634 residents.

Most of the non growth counties are around the Saginaw Bay or in the Western part of the UP.

As for the three biggest losers of population:
Wayne County lost 2,982 people — a decline of 0.2% to 1,753,616 residents.
Genesee County lost 1,222 people — a decline of 0.3% to 407.385 residents.
Tuscola County (east of Saginaw) lost 471 people — a decline of 0.9% to 52,764 residents.
The largest % loss occurred in Keweenaw County (northern tip of UP) which experienced a decline of 1.6% to 2,105 residents.

Overall Metro Detroit adds about 7,000 residents - or about 10,000 residents, if you consider Washtenaw County, which grew by 0.8%, to be part of the metro. Other interesting notes are a 1.3% population growth in Allegan County (Allegan/Saugatuck), 1.1% growth in Ottawa County (Grand Haven/Holland), 0.8% growth in Ingham County (Lansing), and Kalamazoo County rounds out the growing counties with mid to large urban areas, adding 0.7%.
That WC total, as usual, likely reflects the fate of the city of Detroit. My estimate is that by 2020, Detroit proper will experience zero population growth year over year, before gaining.
.
Detroit has taken some terrible economic blows as a region. The 80's.....then a period in the 90's....then the 2000's, with the 80's and 2000's being game changing blows. However, the Detroit area just keeps bouncing back up like a ball, unlike places like Pittsburgh that is highly recognized for turning around and changing its economy....but it still bleeds people.

I have always thought of Detroit as a very undervalued stock. Its a region that is seen as a "has been" region by most of the nation.....but no region of the country has taken blows like SE MI and bounce back like Detroit does. Without those massive blows of the 80's and 2000, Detroit would still be a top ten metro. It might be generations, if ever, that Detroit's metro breaks the top ten again, however, the region will start making healthy gains 25K - 30k a year by mid 2020's and should hold its current position/rank once Seattle passes. In reality though, if you give Detroit the footprint of many southern Metros....its numbers are right up there too.
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Old 03-22-2018, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Louisville
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By the numbers

By the percentage


Definitely some interesting stuff coming out of this years numbers. I'll post my boring county by county break down that about 3 people care about later today . Detroit definitely gaining momentum, as Indentured Servant points out Wayne County is rapidly containing its losses. As I've said before Wayne Counties growth rates are inextricable from the city of Detroit. This years losses cut by almost half. I expect to see Detroit losing the lowest amount of people in decades when the May city numbers come out.

Grand Rapids seems to be unable to absorb it's full growth potential as it would appear it's CSA counties growth rates have more than trippled in some cases. The housing market in Grand Rapids may be the most competitive sellers market in the country. On top of an inventory shortage, the townships that make up the immediate suburban areas in Kent and Ottawa County have growth prohibitive policies and have made it very expensive for potential home builders to build more inventory. The result is that while both counties are still growing at some of the fastest rates in the state, their gains are starting to slow. Instead the rural counties on the periphery namely Allegan, Barry, Newaygo, and Montcalm have started to see growth rates shoot way up from the previous few years. I think this is starting to stifle both economic and population growth by as much as .2% I think that's pretty significant in the long run as potential new residents shy away due to the cut throat real estate market.

Last edited by mjlo; 03-22-2018 at 12:56 PM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 01:31 PM
 
13,807 posts, read 9,103,761 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
By the numbers

By the percentage


Definitely some interesting stuff coming out of this years numbers. I'll post my boring county by county break down that about 3 people care about later today . Detroit definitely gaining momentum, as Indentured Servant points out Wayne County is rapidly containing its losses. As I've said before Wayne Counties growth rates are inextricable from the city of Detroit. This years losses cut by almost half. I expect to see Detroit losing the lowest amount of people in decades when the May city numbers come out.

Grand Rapids seems to be unable to absorb it's full growth potential as it would appear it's CSA counties growth rates have more than trippled in some cases. The housing market in Grand Rapids may be the most competitive sellers market in the country. On top of an inventory shortage, the townships that make up the immediate suburban areas in Kent and Ottawa County have growth prohibitive policies and have made it very expensive for potential home builders to build more inventory. The result is that while both counties are still growing at some of the fastest rates in the state, their gains are starting to slow. Instead the rural counties on the periphery namely Allegan, Barry, Newaygo, and Montcalm have started to see growth rates shoot way up from the previous few years. I think this is starting to stifle both economic and population growth by as much as .2% I think that's pretty significant in the long run as potential new residents shy away due to the cut throat real estate market.
Thanks for the numbers. I must be one of the 3 you mentioned who will be interested

Anyway, its hard to understand why Grand Rapids is not booming. When I say booming I mean a year-over-year growth rate of over 2%. Its growth rate still has not come close to the growth rates of the mid 90's when it was around 1.5 - 1.8 range, despite it getting national top 10 ranking several years for its economic performance and housing market strength. Add in its proximity to lake Michigan and the revitalization of downtown and several core neighborhoods into a hipster paradise....it makes no sense to me. However, there is a reason for everything....even if I am not smart enough to know what that reason is. Maybe the pay is too low relative to the price of housing. Maybe it not being a "pass though" city, like Columbus or Indianapolis, means that people don't know what the place has to offer. Maybe people just right it off because its in Michigan. Either way, growth is being choked like you said and maybe its because people in the area fear, and hence are resisting, facilitating it becoming a boom town. Some people want to keep things just the way they are.
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Old 03-22-2018, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Louisville
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
Thanks for the numbers. I must be one of the 3 you mentioned who will be interested

Anyway, its hard to understand why Grand Rapids is not booming. When I say booming I mean a year-over-year growth rate of over 2%. Its growth rate still has not come close to the growth rates of the mid 90's when it was around 1.5 - 1.8 range, despite it getting national top 10 ranking several years for its economic performance and housing market strength. Add in its proximity to lake Michigan and the revitalization of downtown and several core neighborhoods into a hipster paradise....it makes no sense to me. However, there is a reason for everything....even if I am not smart enough to know what that reason is. Maybe the pay is too low relative to the price of housing. Maybe it not being a "pass though" city, like Columbus or Indianapolis, means that people don't know what the place has to offer. Maybe people just right it off because its in Michigan. Either way, growth is being choked like you said and maybe its because people in the area fear, and hence are resisting, facilitating it becoming a boom town. Some people want to keep things just the way they are.
The main difference between the 1990's and now is housing. The 1990's saw several major homebuilders like Pulte building sizable subdivisions in W.Mich, along with apartment builders going gang busters. The mass building of new housing units accomodated for the 1.5-1.8% annual growth. In 2001 the big home builders like Pulte pulled out of Grand Rapids because it was "too small of a market". The economic crisis of 2007-2010 saw some bigger local home builders disappear and a huge depletion of the skilled trades workforce leaving for better economic pastures. Michigan's 10 year recession took the entire state off of the radar for new investment, especially in the mass home building industry. Michigan is really only in the last year and a half starting to re-emerge on that radar.

By 2012 a need for new housing units was recognized in the apartment sector and we started seeing a surge of apartment proposals. By 2015 Grand Rapids had the lowest rental vacancy rate in the nation at 1.6% Between 2015 and now more than 3000 additional apartment units have been added to the market in Kent and Ottawa Counties, with several more thousand in various stages of construction. The city of Grand Rapids itself has seen more than 3000 units in and around downtown alone. Absent of this economic opportunity is housing. Home builders are running into cost prohibitive start up costs, and a big labor shortage in trades as the lost skilled set is only slowly returning. National home builders still have not recognized the economic opportunity to mass develop communities, or the market truly is still too small. That leaves Greater GR with no home builders who have the capacity to fully capitalize on the market potential. Even with adding almost double the residents in raw numbers that metro Detroit has gained, the Detroit area continues to out pace GR in new units built. I'm sure that has everything to do with market size.

What is not captured in the GR metro numbers as I stated is the surge in growth of ancilary counties, which is clearly compensating for some of the stifled growth in the core counties. I also don't think it's a wage issue. Wage growth in GR has been growing at about double the nat'l average. The people moving to the area are disproportionately taking jobs in educated, medical, and STEM positions. The average wage in Grand Rapids has historically been skewed by the disproportionate number of entry level positions. The economy in Grand Rapids has been slowly shifting to a more sustainable and middle class knowledge/services base, but the legacy of low skilled manufacturing jobs is definitely still present in the numbers. One of the articles I read discussing the crisis in GR pointed out that the out of towners moving in are better financially positioned to snatch up what housing is available making it more difficult for the locals to compete. I can't imagine people moving here from Chicago, and other bigger markets are doing so to take a $15/hr position at Lack's

Last edited by mjlo; 03-22-2018 at 02:16 PM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Louisville
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As a side I am also wondering if the current political climate surrounding migration might have had an impact on Grand Rapids growth. It's largest minority group are people of Hispanic/Latino descent. There's been a softening trend in migration numbers for this group all over the country. It could be adding to it.
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Old 03-22-2018, 03:37 PM
 
13,807 posts, read 9,103,761 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
As a side I am also wondering if the current political climate surrounding migration might have had an impact on Grand Rapids growth. It's largest minority group are people of Hispanic/Latino descent. There's been a softening trend in migration numbers for this group all over the country. It could be adding to it.
That makes more sense to me, less immigration impact than the 90's, than does builders not building more housing. The latter seems to me would have more impact on housing cost than population growth. In other words, I am not sure if suddenly thousands of new homes were built that the result would be more people moving into the area, as opposed to median or average home prices declining. I am in no way an expert on this, but simply thinking out loud.

I think wages might be an issue in the area for unskilled and under educated workers. Maybe a good number of new residents, with education and STEM skills are moving to the area getting good paying jobs. However, maybe that is being slightly offset by lesser skilled residents moving someplace else due to the low wages for general labor and skyrocketing rents. Many of the poorer residents who were unskilled and under educated lived in the city of Grand Rapids. Rents have gone up so much, however, that it might have not only pushed them out the city, but out of the state. A third of the economy in GR used to be manufacturing related and a good portion still is.....but those jobs don't pay anywhere near what they used to pay while housing cost is a lot more than it used to be.

I tend to think that if money could be made that builders would not pass it up. I think they would have to see the population growth numbers first, however, to justify it. However, like I said, that immigration makes a hell of a lot of sense in explaining the numbers.

Last edited by Indentured Servant; 03-22-2018 at 04:56 PM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Louisville
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Ok Here's the MJLO breakdown of the 2017 Estimates:

I first did this in 2014. Not having done it to this level I wasn't sure what to expect. The following year I continued to chart trends2015. In 2016 Numbers showed accelerated gains, and I speculated that either the CB was correcting previous errors, or cautiously optimic that the numbers signaled improvements in all parts of the state. Now 2017 estimates are in. Not only do they confirm that 2015-2016 showed an actual statewide recovery of population, but that it is in fact accelerating.

My presentation is more slimmed down compared to prior years. The first map shows how the regions are broken out. The data grid shows each region populations 2016, 2017 and then the corresponding growth numbers, and followed by the 2010-2017 estimates.



As I've been reviewing the data from the past years, I've only now pieced together how big of an impact the great recession actually had on the state. When you look at overall regional losses, they must have overwhelmingly occurred between 2010-2012. For every year since then, losses have either slowed to a trickle, or the regions have started posting gains.

A couple of points to note:

Upper Peninsula:
The UP is far and away the most inconsistent portion of the state for population trends. One year it barely looses, the next year it triples. That continues this year. 2016 Estimates showed a 2400 person loss, while in 2017 it barely lost 600. The UP is the part of the state I am least familiar with. I would imagine the biggest contributor to those losses would be in the natural growth rate (births vs. deaths). During the copper boom 100 years ago, there were several counties that had 3 or 4 times as many people as they do now. I am tempted to do a study on the long term population trends of the UP. Based on what i've seen it could have had nearly 1 million people at point. It is now flirting with dipping below 300,000 people by the 2020 census.

Northern Lower Michigan:
I'm trying to figure out what's going on here. Remote rural counties across the country have steadily lost population for the last few decades. Where a few years ago the NW side of the state anchored by Traverse City was gaining people, the NE side was economically stagnant, and perpetually losing people. Last year the NE side of the state posted it's smallest losses since i've been following this. This year along with the NW side, the NE counties actually posted GAINS. What circumstances are present that are leading to these counties reversing trends and gaining residents, in a stereotypical state where they should only decline? The biggest out lier in this group of counties is Grand Traverse County which lost 100 residents this cycle. Two years ago Grand Traverse County was the fastest growing county in the state and the counties surrounding it were also prospering. This year it's one of the few to actually show a loss. What is happening in the Northern LP where the tides have reversed and the usual anchor of the area is losing, while being propped up by all of the counties it used to offset?

Western Michigan:
As has been the case for decades the region anchored by Grand Rapids leads Michigan in population growth. Unlike the rest of Michigan this growth is not accelerating to higher heights but rather remaining consistent. What is also unique here is that the core counties within the GR metro have actually had a little bit slower of a growth rate than previous years. What was not expected were the periphery counties in the GR CSA to see a BIG jump in growth rates. Based on my knowledge of the area this is largely due to the housing crisis that's been brewing here over the last few years. Current conditions are hampering the regions ability to bring new housing to the market, and it has lead to one of the most cut throat real estate markets in the country. Should the periphery counties continue to benefit from hampered new home building in Kent and Ottawa Counties, expect to see counties added to the Grand Rapids Metropolitan region(during the 2023 metro realignment). What could result is the most spread out, and sprawled 1.5million person metro area in the country. It will be interesting to see if home builders react to the market conditions, and housing inventory begins to correct from historical lows.

Southwest:
Every county in this region showed gains or improvement. This region is typically boosted by Kalamazoo County alone. However like trends in the rest of the state, every county seems to be benefiting from Michigan's resurgence.

Capital:
Not much changed in the Lansing area as it continued to build on previous momentum. There were no out lier counties when I examined the numbers.

I-75 Corridor

The Northern I-75 corridor continues to be the biggest impediment in the overall population trend health of the state. Every county but one (Lapeer) continued to post population losses. I have speculated previously based on the economic foundations of this area as to why. However true to trends these losses were the most optimistic they have been since i've been following these numbers. I would not be surprised to see a few of the perennially losing core counties actually posting tepids gains by the 2020 census.

The Southern I-75 corridor is by far the biggest winner of the year. The region anchored by Detroit had its best population showing since the 1990s. These gains have significantly accelerated, and if these trends hold true the Detroit area could actually pass Grand Rapids in raw population growth for the first time in decades. The biggest winner, Wayne County. Detroit has always been the anchor around Wayne Counties neck, and I have said that if Detroit turns around so will Wayne. It seems pretty evident that the Detroit areas transformation from a manufacturing center, to an R&D and corporate center is coming full circle. The efforts within the city itself have started to turn the tide of national opinion regarding Detroit, and it is benefiting the region(and state) as a whole. To me this is a signal that Detroit's peer group is with other corporate 4 million plus metros, and not the stagnant post industrial metro areas it gets lumped in with. While metros like Cleveland and Pittsburgh have continually declined over the last 50 years. The Detroit area has proven much more resilient. While the period of restructuring for the automotive industry was unavoidable, I wonder if Detroit's reputation and lack of cooperation of regional governments were the true culprits of the regions stagnation. As these things get removed the area may emerge as something that more closely resembles other 4million+ metros, and not the dying manufacturing center it is incorrectly assumed to be.

If anyone wants to see more specific data sets let me know.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Metro Detroit
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mjlo - I love your population estimates. Thanks so much for doing such an awesome summary every year. Your analysis is also very interesting. As an aside, do you mind if I share your image post elsewhere? I can credit you (well, as "mjlo"), if you like.

I've remarked before that I do see population growth. I use a super unscientific and anecdotal observation based on out of state license plates, but this last year the number of out of state license plates on commuter thoroughfares has exploded. In addition to this, real estate values, lack of availability, and the massive number of people I meet who "just moved here/back.." has really taken off this year. I do believe these census estimates are accurate, or possible even understating the actual population growth - at least for Oakland & Macomb Counties.

Finally, this seems to be the website to discuss this kind of census stuff, but one estimate on the Census site actually shows growth in Wayne County. No really, here's the link:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...igan/PST045216

Am I reading that right? Those numbers are right there, on the census website:
Population estimates, July 1, 2017, (V2017) 1,753,616
Population estimates, July 1, 2016, (V2016) 1,749,366
Last I checked, 1,753,616 > 1,749,366. That would be ... significant. That would suggest growth in Detroit, something I don't think anyone anticipated to be a thing in 2017. Is there some misinterpretation on my part (I have had a couple of glasses of wine this evening..) or am I using a questionable data set? I know all the news outlets reported a slight loss for Wayne County, but... that's not what the census estimates that I'm linking to above are telling us.
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Old 03-23-2018, 04:24 AM
 
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Monroe County, where I live, gained some 400+ people during this cycle which sounds good on the surface, and is good for Michigan. However, if you look at it regionally, the vast majority of those people just moved over the line from Lucas County, Ohio to escape living in Toledo, which is losing people (over 1,300 during this cycle for Lucas County, Ohio). Therefore, good for Michigan but not necessarily good for the region, since Toledo is the go to "big city" for most people living in the Michigan counties that border Ohio.

Last edited by canudigit; 03-23-2018 at 04:38 AM..
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