[michigan83]

Hey, the way I look at it - 91% of the people in this state are EMPLOYED. That sounds pretty good, right? That's an A- on a test.

Considering that economists consider an unemployment rate of 4-5% to virtually be zero, we are about 5% above the absolute minimum unemployment rate. So, in a way, we are around 5% unemployment. The other 5% wouldn't work if employers were knocking on their door.

Even bad times in the U.S.A. are pretty good. Things could suck a lot more than they do. I see an awful lot of people at the mall buying crap that they don't need.

Just thought I would give everyone a little dose of glass-half-full!

I love this state.

[Driller1]

Every place I go I wait in line. Restaurants are at least a 1/2 wait. The traffic is fierce. Must be all those people that lost their homes.........They were at the movies last night too.

[michmoldman]

Originally Posted by Driller1

Every place I go I wait in line. Restaurants are at least a 1/2 wait. The traffic is fierce. Must be all those people that lost their homes.........They were at the movies last night too.

I have to agree. Even in our relatively small mid michigan town, I have not noticed anything different from say 5 years ago. Actually, all the smaller stores say they did well this year with sales, even with a Walmart around. I know people are losing jobs and homes, but a lot of people are employed. The biggest thing is that the media scares the bajesus out of everyone by constantly focusing on bad news. they go out of their way to find all the bad news possible, and can not wait to share it with everyone, and of course this makes you think the sky is falling.
Our Meijers is packed, Walmarts packed, most of the restaurants are always busy, I went to gamestop the other day and there were 50 people in line. Some places are dying, some are still fine just like any other state.
If you read my post "one mans analogy" I likened the economy to a forestfire, after the fire there are pockets of forest left that still thrive. There are lots of places in michigan that are still doing well.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by michmoldman

I have to agree. Even in our relatively small mid michigan town, I have not noticed anything different from say 5 years ago. Actually, all the smaller stores say they did well this year with sales, even with a Walmart around. I know people are losing jobs and homes, but a lot of people are employed. The biggest thing is that the media scares the bajesus out of everyone by constantly focusing on bad news. they go out of their way to find all the bad news possible, and can not wait to share it with everyone, and of course this makes you think the sky is falling.
Our Meijers is packed, Walmarts packed, most of the restaurants are always busy, I went to gamestop the other day and there were 50 people in line. Some places are dying, some are still fine just like any other state.
If you read my post "one mans analogy" I likened the economy to a forestfire, after the fire there are pockets of forest left that still thrive. There are lots of places in michigan that are still doing well.

I agree 100%, concerning our CURRENT state of affairs. However, what our economy did to score an “A”, these last few decades involved, a high degree of “Cheating” and a relaxing of grading standards and now people realize that much of the grades they got were not really valid. In other words, we are not as smart as we thought we were or that we were made to believe. Now we are in the process of adjusting to our real level of intellect and or effort……which is more like that of a “C” student. So I expect the grades, over the next few years, to drop from the 90 percentile to the 70 percentile.

Hey....you can still go to the malls and restaurants and movies......and not spend as much in the past. Maybe instead of ordering the 20 dollar meal....you order the 10 dollar meal. Maybe when you go to the movies.....you sneak in treats instead of paying for the overpriced goodies at the theater......maybe when you go to the malls.... you look more than you buy.... than they did in the past.
[SIZE=3] [/SIZE]

[michmoldman]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

I agree 100%, concerning our CURRENT state of affairs. However, what our economy did to score an “A”, these last few decades involved, a high degree of “Cheating” and a relaxing of grading standards and now people realize that much of the grades they got were not really valid. In other words, we are not as smart as we thought we were or that we were made to believe. Now we are in the process of adjusting to our real level of intellect and or effort……which is more like that of a “C” student. So I expect the grades, over the next few years, to drop from the 90 percentile to the 70 percentile.

Hey....you can still go to the malls and restaurants and movies......and not spend as much in the past. Maybe instead of ordering the 20 dollar meal....you order the 10 dollar meal. Maybe when you go to the movies.....you sneak in treats instead of paying for the overpriced goodies at the theater......maybe when you go to the malls.... you look more than you buy.... than they did in the past.
[SIZE=3] [/SIZE]

Yep
Another good thing about all this mess is most places will have to drop their prices, or drop out of business. Of course they say this will cause more places to go out of business. Guess what....other places will pop up with better management and lower prices. Of course this means the bigwigs will get to only spend half their time in the caribbean instead of 3/4 but like everything......we and they will adjust.

Heck, when I was younger I never went to the mall to buy stuff. Just went to look at the ladies!

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by michmoldman

Yep
Another good thing about all this mess is most places will have to drop their prices, or drop out of business. Of course they say this will cause more places to go out of business. Guess what....other places will pop up with better management and lower prices. Of course this means the bigwigs will get to only spend half their time in the caribbean instead of 3/4 but like everything......we and they will adjust.

Heck, when I was younger I never went to the mall to buy stuff. Just went to look at the ladies!

In this climate (credit crunch) it’s hard to get money (Loan) PERIOD….even with excellent credit, because of uncertainty. Now, if many retail establishments are failing, I imagine that it will be extremely hard for a person to secure a loan to start a NEW retail establishment….when banks are faced with defaults on loans from other failed retail establishments. So when these establishments fail, in this climate, it will be a long time before another establishment replaces them....meaning the loss of jobs and incomes for workers and owners....who in turn have less money.

When the pension system starts to Crash by this Summer…..and people come to grips of how insolvent our whole economy is……the consumer impact (negative) will be tremendous. Retirement security plays a huge role in the consumptive behavior of 35-60 year olds…..the demographic with the most money. Given the continued loss of equity and wealth in homes and stocks, when the pension and retirement funds get threatened…..people will have to radically alter the spending habits and start ramping up efforts to save…..which can collapse the economy.


hey....I am right with you on the malls and girls thing ....I did not have any money to spend anyway....but looking at the women was free (unti the date...no money...no honey).

[magellan]

Originally Posted by Driller1

Every place I go I wait in line. Restaurants are at least a 1/2 wait. The traffic is fierce. Must be all those people that lost their homes.........They were at the movies last night too.

I went to our Meijer today and it was packed. You couldn't even find a place to park without waiting for someone to leave (and then there were multiple cars to take that person's place). Apparently people aren't scaling back New Year's celebrations (or maybe they are partying with friends instead of spending $300 at a hotel).

I'm not saying that's indicative of a healthy economy, but we're far from 3rd world status as some on here would have people believe.

The funny thing is is, because economies go in cycles, once in a while the doom and gloomers are right once in a while (and they say "I told you so"), until the boom comes back and they prophesy another crash coming, to which they are right again 20 years later. All the while, the optimists are cashing in on opportunities. If you're constantly waiting for the other shoe to fall, it will eventually happen, and you'll miss life as all the other shoes walk past you.

As a good friend and associate of mine says "No company and no job was ever created out of pessimism".

[Driller1]

I have been in a third world country many times. One night in Tegucigalpa, Honduras we could not buy milk. I had money, there just WAS no milk. This is the capital city!!! To be poor in the US is the dream of many.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by magellan

I went to our Meijer today and it was packed. You couldn't even find a place to park without waiting for someone to leave (and then there were multiple cars to take that person's place). Apparently people aren't scaling back New Year's celebrations (or maybe they are partying with friends instead of spending $300 at a hotel).

I'm not saying that's indicative of a healthy economy, but we're far from 3rd world status as some on here would have people believe.

The funny thing is is, because economies go in cycles, once in a while the doom and gloomers are right once in a while (and they say "I told you so"), until the boom comes back and they prophesy another crash coming, to which they are right again 20 years later. All the while, the optimists are cashing in on opportunities. If you're constantly waiting for the other shoe to fall, it will eventually happen, and you'll miss life as all the other shoes walk past you.

As a good friend and associate of mine says "No company and no job was ever created out of pessimism".

I think that the latter part of your response was an emotional argument rather than an intellectual argument. Its essentially the same as saying that even a broken clock will have the correct time at least twice a day (assuming that the hands are not missing, as part of the state of disrepair). I don’t think it’s an intellectual argument to suggest that the economy runs in cycles, as a clock, and hence predictors of bad time will eventually be correct, as the case now.

What we are going through now hardly resembles the typical peaks and valleys of economic oscillation post World War II. I understand that for what it is…..which is simply wishful or hopeful thinking. We are not on a gold standard. The worlds competing economies have not been devastated by world wars. We no longer run trade surpluses, but massive deficits. We no longer are the world’s largest creditor, but rather, the world’s largest debtor. We have 10 trillion in debt and 54 trillion from the ponzi scheme of social security and Medicare. We have lost comparative economic advantage in manufacturing as capitalism has spread the world over. Oil supplies (the life blood of economies), according to the IEA, are diminishing. Our currency is on the brink of collapse. Our banks are on the brink of insolvency, Wall Street has been propped up by the FEDERAL RESERVE interest rate policy (liquidity)….ect…ect. Sure, some of these things have happened in the past, but simultaneousness and synergy resulting from these things transpiring at once is potentially unprecedented…..and catastrophic. However, the most import thing is the psychology of people…..like you. In fact…..people like you help things more than people like me……given that you are still optimistic. That optimism, more than anything else, is what is keeping us afloat right now. However, there will come a time when the fundamental will change even the opinions of optimist like you…..and when that happens……the party is over.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

I think that the latter part of your response was an emotional argument rather than an intellectual argument. Its essentially the same as saying that even a broken clock will have the correct time at least twice a day (assuming that the hands are not missing, as part of the state of disrepair). I don’t think it’s an intellectual argument to suggest that the economy runs in cycles, as a clock, and hence predictors of bad time will eventually be correct, as the case now.

What we are going through now hardly resembles the typical peaks and valleys of economic oscillation post World War II. I understand that for what it is…..which is simply wishful or hopeful thinking. We are not on a gold standard. The worlds competing economies have not been devastated by world wars. We no longer run trade surpluses, but massive deficits. We no longer are the world’s largest creditor, but rather, the world’s largest debtor. We have 10 trillion in debt and 54 trillion from the ponzi scheme of social security and Medicare. We have lost comparative economic advantage in manufacturing as capitalism has spread the world over. Oil supplies (the life blood of economies), according to the IEA, are diminishing. Our currency is on the brink of collapse. Our banks are on the brink of insolvency, Wall Street has been propped up by the FEDERAL RESERVE interest rate policy (liquidity)….ect…ect. Sure, some of these things have happened in the past, but simultaneousness and synergy resulting from these things transpiring at once is potentially unprecedented…..and catastrophic. However, the most import thing is the psychology of people…..like you. In fact…..people like you help things more than people like me……given that you are still optimistic. That optimism, more than anything else, is what is keeping us afloat right now. However, there will come a time when the fundamental will change even the opinions of optimist like you…..and when that happens……the party is over.

I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of what you are saying, and our country is going through a transition/revolution as we haven't seen in about a century. But even intellectually, you have to agree that there are a lot of opportunities that will arise as many huge developing countries start to move into a more "American" lifestyle. When resources are taxed to the breaking point, new technologies emerge. We as a country, even as a state, contain a lot of thought leaders in these areas. It's too bad that we've so badly damaged our credit systems that are needed by businesses to grow, but the wildest and best ideas aren't supported by banks, they're nurtured by venture capitalists, those optimists who are always on the hunt for ways to make audacious gobs of money on bets that banks won't make.

Yes, the current party is coming to an end. But greed, ambition and ultra-competitiveness will replace the current party with a new one, trust me.