[allistercrowly]

I was watching Bloomberg this morning. The economists are now talking Depression. Many people have tried to deny a recession. Now that there is no way to deny this will they deny that it is possible to go into a depression? I heard Rush say yesterday that this economy is not nearly as bad as the recession of the 80s. I think that is because he squarely put that one on Jimmy Carters shoulders, and this one Bush as to shoulder at minimum some of the blame. But I feel from what I have seen that this is much worse than the 80s recession. I know Michigan is hurting worse than it did in the 80s. What are some opinions out there?

[michmoldman]

Depression

[MI-IRISH]

recession leads to depression
depression leads to oppression
oppression leads to aggression
aggression leads to.......

[magellan]

Any economics students out there know the technical definition for "depression" vs. prolonged recession? There has to be some kind of defining economic measurement.

[Driller1]

I think we are in for a dark ride. Worldwide. Would YOU open a business now???? I know many who no long use banks.

[Cliffie]

A guy on NPR made an interesting distinction -- he said it's not a recession OR a depression, it's a "banking crisis." Problem is he said the latter is worse than either of the former.'

He also said there IS no clear dividing line between recession and depression. People in authority have just been using the word "recession" the past few times around this mulberry bush because A) all the more recent ones have been less severe than the Great Depression of the 1930s and B) keeping morale up is important at a time like this. Consumer confidence goes a long way towards stimulating the economy, and the word 'depression" scares people to death of course.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by Cliffie

A guy on NPR made an interesting distinction -- he said it's not a recession OR a depression, it's a "banking crisis." Problem is he said the latter is worse than either of the former.'

He also said there IS no clear dividing line between recession and depression. People in authority have just been using the word "recession" the past few times around this mulberry bush because A) all the more recent ones have been less severe than the Great Depression of the 1930s and B) keeping morale up is important at a time like this. Consumer confidence goes a long way towards stimulating the economy, and the word 'depression" scares people to death of course.

I think that's one of the problems. All this outsourcing in the name of "free trade" has resulted in our economy being too heavily weighed now on consumer spending (2/3's of the economy last I read). So 2/3's of our economic engine relies on us spending money, and our attitudes about spending money, rather than producing goods and services that people outside this country want or need.

I found one definition that says a drop of 10% or more in GNP is considered a depression.

[Ivorytickler]

We are in a, clear, downward spiral with no sign of the bottom yet. The problem is jobs. There aren't any. When people aren't working, they cut back spending that results in even more lay offs and those people cut back spending and so on and so on and so on. I fear we'll flounder for several years before this even hints at turning around and then it will be because people have gone so long without spending they have no choice but to replace cars, appliances, clothes, whatever the case may be and then they'll shop used first which will drive up the prices of used goods.

[magellan]

Originally Posted by Ivorytickler

We are in a, clear, downward spiral with no sign of the bottom yet. The problem is jobs. There aren't any. When people aren't working, they cut back spending that results in even more lay offs and those people cut back spending and so on and so on and so on. I fear we'll flounder for several years before this even hints at turning around and then it will be because people have gone so long without spending they have no choice but to replace cars, appliances, clothes, whatever the case may be and then they'll shop used first which will drive up the prices of used goods.

That's exactly right. When your job depends on me spending money, and my job depends on you spending money, something is terribly wrong with the system.

And to think that they're talking about opening up even more free trade agreements with Central America. Free trade is great when you're at the bottom or in the middle. If you're at the top (United States), equilibrium equals only one thing, downward pressure.

[PineHallGirl]

In Michigan...we've BEEN in a depression.