Milwaukee's future? (Cleveland, Luck, Reserve: homes, neighborhood, taxes)

[Angorlee]

I believe that about a year from now is when we will start seeing the ruin taking place rapidly before our eyes. At about that time the stimulus money will be running out and payday will have arrived with no means of paying. And the housing crisis is beginning to show up in commercial real estate now and a year from now things will be looking dim. The only way to get money will be to increase the taxes of homeowners but their taxes are so damn high now that it will force them out of their own homes. And the upcoming increase in taxes on the middle class will slow down comsumer spending and businesses will feel the pinch. I think that this coming xmas season retail shopping will tell a lot about whats going to happen. If its too bad we'll see shopping malls closing down left and right.

[Allan Trafton]

Originally Posted by Angorlee

I believe that about a year from now is when we will start seeing the ruin taking place rapidly before our eyes. At about that time the stimulus money will be running out and payday will have arrived with no means of paying. And the housing crisis is beginning to show up in commercial real estate now and a year from now things will be looking dim. The only way to get money will be to increase the taxes of homeowners but their taxes are so damn high now that it will force them out of their own homes. And the upcoming increase in taxes on the middle class will slow down comsumer spending and businesses will feel the pinch. I think that this coming xmas season retail shopping will tell a lot about whats going to happen. If its too bad we'll see shopping malls closing down left and right.

I think your on to something here. I've been following the economy and have come to the same conclusion. The commercial real estate and retail business in general is in much worse shape than the general public realizes. Take a look at the bankruptcy of Brookfield Town Center on Capitol Dr. and Brookfield Rd. This should open some eyes. An upscale shopping center in an upscale area going bankrupt. The suburban areas are going to get hit much worse than many figure. Much of the suburbs are extremely overbuilt with retail and commercial real estate. There is too much duplication of stores in too small of an area. The commercial real estate market has 7 trillion in risky loans on the books. Can you say more Bank bailouts?

The tax situation is nightmare number 2. Most state and local government barely escaped 2009. Wait until 2010. This is when the real troubles begin. Most state/local governments have no idea how they are going to balance their books and they are very worried. The tax payers will not shell out any more and many tough decisions will have to be made. This problem is far from being a Milwaukee/Wisconsin problem. Look at Florida, Arizona and the other bubble areas. With a decrease of 40% in property values they are in trouble. Low taxes no more for them.

Nightmare 3 would be the continuation of mortgage foreclosures. This is a long way from over. Take a look at all the Alt-A and other dubious loans coming due. It is very ugly. The charts will scare anyone.

Nightmare 4 would be the Feds 10 Trillion injection into the economy. Most of this was liquidity injections, stock purchases, purchase of U.S. treasury by the Feds. Most of this happened behind closed doors. The stimulus was chump change compared to what was really going on. Wait until China/Saudi Arabia/Japan and others stop buying our debt. They will demand higher yields, thus causing inflation. The feds are in the process of ruining our currency.

We'll see how this plays out, but were nowhere near from what I would call stable.

[KC3700]

Great post Allan. I've been following the economic situation closely and have come to the same conclusions. Yo are spot-on about Nightmare 4, something most people aren't aware of.

I do contest one of your statements, though.

Originally Posted by Allan Trafton

This problem is far from being a Milwaukee/Wisconsin problem.

The broader economic situation, yes. But Milwaukee already had several major obstacles in it's path because of a protracted population decline, poor schools and bad policy decisions.

--------------

One thing about this economic mess that I think could really hurt this city: arson. During the last year there was a serious spike in arson, and I believe that about a year from now it could be even worse. In a 3 block radius from my house there are 5 burnouts. They've been like this for months and are obvious total-losses. For those of you who don't know, there is a limit on how long a residential property can have boards on the windows, so property owners are discouraged from protecting vacant properties from activities such as arson and squatting. I think this, as well as other things such as poverty and high unemployment puts Milwaukee at a very high risk of a major arson outbreak when the economy gets worse. That'll really make a lot of neighborhoods turn for the worse.

[Angorlee]

Add to all of above the rise in prices. Some things that used to be under a dollar are now over $2. Food prices have gone through the roof. A jar of peanut butter is almost $4! I could go on and on but you all know what I mean.

[TommyGavin]

Originally Posted by KC3700

I think this, as well as other things such as poverty and high unemployment puts Milwaukee at a very high risk of a major arson outbreak when the economy gets worse. That'll really make a lot of neighborhoods turn for the worse.

That is exactly what has happened during the poor economies of our past. During that time it was arson for profit. Today, we are now seeing arson for survival, and it is already happening.

I agree as well, things are on the brink of becoming significantly worse. I also feel we are far from being out of the woods with any kind of stability, economically.
Too many foreign people own too much of our debt.

"The borrower is slave to the lender".

[TommyGavin]

Originally Posted by KC3700

One thing about this economic mess that I think could really hurt this city: arson. During the last year there was a serious spike in arson, and I believe that about a year from now it could be even worse. In a 3 block radius from my house there are 5 burnouts. They've been like this for months and are obvious total-losses.

This is a significant issue for our city, as it is in many others.
The number of vacant/abandoned homes has risen significantly over the past year. So much so that it is shocking, and it is starting to be a city-wide issue; not that it should matter where it happens, because any vacant/abandoned property is an issue for us all.

Just remember where the city is spending all of our money when the mayor's budget is first released this September 24th.
While you have burn-outs surrounding your home, we all have flowers in our boulevards.
There is no reason why the city can't take a more proactive approach to knocking down burned out homes. They are a blight and significant safety issue to our families, never mind the perception that goes along with them.

Contact your elected officials and voice your concerns, it can make a difference.

[city414]

Originally Posted by Milwaukee City

I think this article is just news hype and is not really accurate. Here are my suggestions to what I would do to help Milwaukee(Milwaukee Metro).

1. Toll roads
2. Annex: West Milwaukee, Cudahy, St.Francis, South Milwaukee, Greenfield, Oak Creek, Franklin, Hales Corners, West Allis, Brown Deer and Glendale.
3. RTA- Why not have one transit system for 6 counties instead of 6 different transit companies.
4. Get rid of combined reporting
5. Have Wisconsin become a "right to work" state
6. Have Milwaukee County annex Washington, Ozaukee, Racine, Waukesha County and Kenosha and have it become one big Milwaukee County IE: Maricopa County in AZ.
7. Expand freeways to 8 lanes and in some places expand it to 10 lanes.
8. Have a business friendly tax climate
9. Move the Capitol to Milwaukee...lol.
10. Get a real Governor in office, one who goes after business to come to our state not one who pushes businesses out the door.
11. Since Health Care is now Milwaukee's biggest industry I would make a point to emphasize or focus or development and research of our health care sector. Basically become a center of health care in the US.
12. UWM into a complete research university and have it seprate from the UW system and just become The University of Milwaukee. This idea is still being floated out there.

I know my ideas are radical but I don't see any ideas coming from any of our civic leadership.

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Health Care

so after all this would mke be a sister/brother chicago?

[whinniethezen]

Your city needs to be a world leader in a particular industry... and also bring in higher paying jobs by having a business friendly tax climate.
I read in your local paper while visiting Milwaukee that Milwaukee could be poised as a leader of the water industry? That is interesting since I live in SanDiego I see reports all the time about the upcoming water shortages all over the world. Milwaukee and Wisconsin need to appeal to that great Imperial Leader, The Grand Poo Bah himself, Mr Obama, the green president. Ge the funding for such things NOW!!! Don't miss the boat!! Don't let your inner city be a service oriented blue collar town forever.

[Milwaukee Ronnie]

Originally Posted by Allan Trafton

I think your on to something here. I've been following the economy and have come to the same conclusion. The commercial real estate and retail business in general is in much worse shape than the general public realizes. Take a look at the bankruptcy of Brookfield Town Center on Capitol Dr. and Brookfield Rd. This should open some eyes. An upscale shopping center in an upscale area going bankrupt. The suburban areas are going to get hit much worse than many figure. Much of the suburbs are extremely overbuilt with retail and commercial real estate. There is too much duplication of stores in too small of an area. The commercial real estate market has 7 trillion in risky loans on the books. Can you say more Bank bailouts?

The tax situation is nightmare number 2. Most state and local government barely escaped 2009. Wait until 2010. This is when the real troubles begin. Most state/local governments have no idea how they are going to balance their books and they are very worried. The tax payers will not shell out any more and many tough decisions will have to be made. This problem is far from being a Milwaukee/Wisconsin problem. Look at Florida, Arizona and the other bubble areas. With a decrease of 40% in property values they are in trouble. Low taxes no more for them.

Nightmare 3 would be the continuation of mortgage foreclosures. This is a long way from over. Take a look at all the Alt-A and other dubious loans coming due. It is very ugly. The charts will scare anyone.

Nightmare 4 would be the Feds 10 Trillion injection into the economy. Most of this was liquidity injections, stock purchases, purchase of U.S. treasury by the Feds. Most of this happened behind closed doors. The stimulus was chump change compared to what was really going on. Wait until China/Saudi Arabia/Japan and others stop buying our debt. They will demand higher yields, thus causing inflation. The feds are in the process of ruining our currency.

We'll see how this plays out, but were nowhere near from what I would call stable.

So what about the new season of Dancing With the Stars?

[Allan Trafton]

Originally Posted by Milwaukee Ronnie

So what about the new season of Dancing With the Stars?

Can't help you out with this one. Never watch it and know little about it, except that Jerry Springer was on one season.