Home prices in Camden? (Minneapolis, St. Paul: foreclosures, showing, travel)

[rcsteiner]

Originally Posted by Thegonagle

Although it is true that many large companies have headquarters in the suburbs, and that there are jobs all over, something like 120,000 people work downtown, maybe even more. (I've seen an estimate of as many as 160,000 downtown workers in the MN-Daily.)

My response was to Nick, who said "the vast majority of suburban dwellers work in the city".

By "vast majority", I can only assume he means some percentage over 50%.

The Twin Cities metro area has over 3,000,000 people.

If 160,000 people work downtown, that would mean the rest do not work downtown.

How large is the total workforce in the Twin Cities?

If the total workforce is larger than 320,000, he's blowing smoke.

FWIW, I've seen numbers in the 1,400,000 range for the total employed Twin Cities work force over the age of 16, meaning that roughly 1.24 million folks seem to be working somewhere other than downtown.

That means only 12% or of the Twin Cities employed workforce are working downtown regardless of where they live.

How many of those are from the suburbs? I have no idea. But if the above numbers are at all accurate, most of the folks in the suburbs have to be working in the suburbs because 160,000 is a drop in the bucket compared to the total Twin Cities job market.

[nick is rulz]

you mentioned the downtown area but overlooked the rest of the city altogether.

Look, its not really rocket science. Minneapolis is the largest city in the metro area so based solely on its size, a lot of people will work there.

By "vast majority" I meant as a comparison of city to suburbs commuters vs suburbs to city commuters, not all suburb dwellers altogether.

The point that I was trying to make is that if gas skyrockets, people will want to move where its more centralized and they can be less reliant on driving everywhere.

[Camden Northsider]

Originally Posted by rcsteiner

My response was to Nick, who said "the vast majority of suburban dwellers work in the city".

By "vast majority", I can only assume he means some percentage over 50%.

The Twin Cities metro area has over 3,000,000 people.

If 160,000 people work downtown, that would mean the rest do not work downtown.

How large is the total workforce in the Twin Cities?

Minneapolis-St Paul MN -WI MSA: app. 1.8 million
Hennepin County: app 850,000
Ramsey County: app 327,000
(note: I believe these figures include age 14 and above)

Originally Posted by rcsteiner

If the total workforce is larger than 320,000, he's blowing smoke.

FWIW, I've seen numbers in the 1,400,000 range for the total employed Twin Cities work force over the age of 16, meaning that roughly 1.24 million folks seem to be working somewhere other than downtown.

That means only 12% or of the Twin Cities employed workforce are working downtown regardless of where they live.

How many of those are from the suburbs? I have no idea. But if the above numbers are at all accurate, most of the folks in the suburbs have to be working in the suburbs because 160,000 is a drop in the bucket compared to the total Twin Cities job market.

See the attached map showing job density in the Metro area - it clearly shows job density levels at their peak in the inner sections of Minneapolis/ St. Paul and a gradual decline out to suburban areas (although you are correct, the sum of the suburban area jobs does add up to a substantial amount; however, the majority look to be in the cities propers or first, maybe second tier suburbs). In regards to Nick's argument, I would also point out that a reverse commute is much easier on the gas mileage and much more time-efficient than the "regular" commute.

[Camden Northsider]

Originally Posted by Camden Northsider

See the attached map showing job density in the Metro area - it clearly shows job density levels at their peak in the inner sections of Minneapolis/ St. Paul and a gradual decline out to suburban areas (although you are correct, the sum of the suburban area jobs does add up to a substantial amount; however, the majority look to be in the cities propers or first, maybe second tier suburbs). In regards to Nick's argument, I would also point out that a reverse commute is much easier on the gas mileage and much more time-efficient than the "regular" commute.

This map attached here might be a little better depiction to guage 'where the jobs are at' (shows highways).

Wil - in response to your question, what you're seeing with home prices isn't too unusual, in Victory you will find houses under $100K up to $409K right now. It definitely has to do with the condition of the house, whether it's a foreclosure, the size of the house, and its proximity to amenities (parks, schools, etc). Banks have so many foreclosures right now that my guess is that they're just trying to dump them for whatever they are able to get. Nick is right in that some people are probably holding onto what they may have gotten before the market decline, but I know in Victory homes in the higher price ranges have been selling, and in Camden as a whole it seems that nicely maintained homes that have more than 2 beds or 1 bath will list substantially higher than the little bungalows and for good reason (however, in previous years, you would also find a number of 2/1's in the 160 - 215K or higher range occassionally depending on their amenities/ condition, location, etc.). So, it's not unusual that home prices are all over the board - there's a large diversity throughout Camden and within neighborhoods in the size, style, and condition of homes (like other poster has said), and some of the foreclosures/ dilapidated homes are just priced insanely low right now-

[golfgal]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

you mentioned the downtown area but overlooked the rest of the city altogether.

Look, its not really rocket science. Minneapolis is the largest city in the metro area so based solely on its size, a lot of people will work there.

By "vast majority" I meant as a comparison of city to suburbs commuters vs suburbs to city commuters, not all suburb dwellers altogether.

The point that I was trying to make is that if gas skyrockets, people will want to move where its more centralized and they can be less reliant on driving everywhere.

So, you really think people are going to leave the suburbs to move to Minneapolis to save on gas when they would increase their commute time on a daily basis just to be closer to the grocery store that they visit once/week? Sorry, don't think so. As I have pointed out many times, we are closer here to pretty much everything then most people are in Minneapolis. There is bus service here to take those that don't want to drive (contrary to the beliefs of others that don't live here and don't see the buses driving around town ). As I have also pointed out several times NONE of our friends work in Minneapolis or St. Paul, they all work in the southern suburbs so living here is MUCh more convenient for them then living in Minneapolis. Why would they move 15 miles farther away?

[nick is rulz]

The $100,000 house makes big comeback

You fail to consider the thousands of renters residing in the suburbs who have decided to make the move back to the city. Your small social circle does not define housing trends.

As of right now, the northside is one of the ONLY communities where people can find a lot of house for the money and even with the growing interest and people asking questions on this forum about the areas, its a pretty strong indication that new urbanism is occuring and will continue. Regardless of the gas price/cost of transportation factor, even if a person still commutes to a job in the burbs they will see some savings if they have a $500 mortgage.

Ask one of the realtors that posts here and I would be willing to bet that many of the pockets in North Minneapolis are selling pretty well right now. The particular neighborhood I am in has properties selling pretty quickly. There was one on the market for $50k that was sold in a week.

[nick is rulz]

here is my theory and it can be picked apart and argued all you want:

Modest homes in traditionally "rougher" areas will become revitalized as people stretch their dollars thinner. North Minneapolis wont become gentrified, but it will get a strong solid middle class population inhabiting it. The same thing occured in Powderhorn and Phillips communities. While those areas all have some crime elements that still linger, the changes even in the past 10 years have been dramatic.

Larger McMansion and new home developments will continue to not sell, and eventually desperate realtors will turn to whatever measures are necessary to net some profit off of them. If that means section 8 housing, so be it. Its happened in other suburban communities, and the metro area is certainly not immune to it.

The Next Slum?

[Camden Northsider]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

here is my theory and it can be picked apart and argued all you want:

Modest homes in traditionally "rougher" areas will become revitalized as people stretch their dollars thinner. North Minneapolis wont become gentrified, but it will get a strong solid middle class population inhabiting it. The same thing occured in Powderhorn and Phillips communities. While those areas all have some crime elements that still linger, the changes even in the past 10 years have been dramatic.

Larger McMansion and new home developments will continue to not sell, and eventually desperate realtors will turn to whatever measures are necessary to net some profit off of them. If that means section 8 housing, so be it. Its happened in other suburban communities, and the metro area is certainly not immune to it.

The Next Slum?

Good article and interesting theory. I think there already is a strong middle class in several areas of north (the far north camden neighborhoods for sure, cleveland, parts of webber-camden, folwell, and willard-hay among others), you just never hear about it. And I do think there is a burgeoning trend of persons seeing the potential of the big victorian mansions to be found in old highland (near north) and jordan neighborhoods (actually, willard probably has some victorians as well). When I went on the Mpls/ St. Paul Home Tour this year, I was amazed at some of the homes that we toured in the Jordan neighborhood; actually, probably one of the most amazing homes I've ever been in was a restored/ updated historic mansion with views of downtown in the Jordan neighborhood - not only was it beautifully done, the 3 story home was similarly "wired" for all of the modern amenities (it was like an episode of 'cribs'). Driving through Old Highland, you similarly see signs of urban hipsters moving in and rehabbing the beautiful old homes there as well. Regardless of what happens, there is a point to be said about there being a need for affordable housing in Minneapolis/ St. Paul - whether for renting or buying (there are huge waiting lists for section 8 and any affordable/ subsidized housing in the metro), as well as the amazing diversity that is found in North Minneapolis. Unfortunately (as for affordability), the landlords that own property in some north neighborhoods aren't really giving anyone a "deal" - it hasn't been much cheaper to rent there than places like Uptown and many don't keep up their properties. What has been said about the foreclosure crisis possibly being a good thing for "north" might hold true in the sense that the majority of foreclosures in the city were "investor foreclosures" - hopefully the foreclosures and new regulations that have been implemented have run some of the absentee landlords out of some neighborhoods and paved the wave for homebuyers or conscientious 'investors'.

And golfgal, when you said "As I have also pointed out several times NONE of our friends work in Minneapolis or St. Paul, they all work in the southern suburbs so living here is MUCh more convenient for them then living in Minneapolis" - trust me, I believe you - I personally could not fathom why anyone would want to live so far out unless they worked in the southern suburbs.

[nick is rulz]

a part of the reason why North Minneapolis rentals are fairly pricey is because a lot of the slumlords carry section 8 vouchers on their properties...therefore if you jack the price up a bit, you're guaranteed that sweet sweet government money.

There are some Victorian properties along the parkway between Golden Valley Rd and Broadway in Willard and a few huuuuuge properties on Xerxes Ave south of Plymouth Rd.

[Chewie]

One of the trends I have seen among our friends in Camden and North Minneapolis is a lot of folks want to limit how much of their monthly income is being spent on housing. Sure - some of the suburbs are starting to come down in price - but as this post originally started out - houses in Camden and the North Minneapolis neighborhoods tend to be less than the metro-wide average. So while some folks do buy here as it is the only area they can afford, other folks are choosing to cut their monthly housing expenses by buying here.

One of the Webber Camden Neighborhood Organization's board members openly admits he and his wife chose to live in Camden because the house payment was one they could afford on one income, so his wife could stay home for the first five years after their child was born. Another one of my friends wants to spend more time traveling, and he's directing more of his monthly income towards travel.

I point this out as we've had discussion about the lower home prices, but not as many comments on the benefits of cutting the actual house payment. I know I am guilty of assuming folks are spending the max they can in their budgets on housing, when I'm actually coming to realize some folks are choosing to spend less on housing to enjoy other things in life.

I still agree with Camden North Sider and Golfgal that not all folks would benefit from moving into the City and that not all folks work in the City - that is very true. Folks are going to live in areas that work for them. But some folks are finding reasons I had not thought of to give the City a try, beyond just their work commute.

Another interesting benefit of trying city living is the City of Minneapolis is currently offering high school students 2 years of free college tuition if you graduate from a Minneapolis public high school. The program is called the Power of You and currently students can attend Metro State, St Paul College, or Minneapolis Community and Technical College for the first 2 years or 72 credits after graduation from a Minneapolis public high school. The students can then transfer to whatever school they are accepted at next that works for them or finish whatever program they can at those schools. I am finding a lot of folks are not familiar with the program. There is no household income limit - so anyone who graduates from a Minneapolis public high school is eligible as long as they are accepted at that college. Here is a link for more information: Minneapolis Community and Technical College

I have heard, but not confirmed, that the Power of You can also be combined with the Post Secondary Option plan, so a student can start taking college classes during their last two years of high school and build up some college credits, graduate from high school, and if it's a Minneapolis public school - they can move on to the Power of You program. It would be interesting to hear from some students or parents of students who are participating in the program for their perspective.