Anyone have advice for moving to rough neighborhood? (Minneapolis, St. Paul: foreclosure, crime)

[Slig]

If you don't mind telling, what areas are you looking in right now? I'm more curious to know what transitional areas you see as good investments for a later sale.

[powerfulpup]

If I told you that, Slig, I'd have to kill you. Well, I haven't set my sights on any area for sure. Listen for the gasps. North Minneapolis. HE'S CRAZY! Perhaps, but there are a slew of cheap houses here. North St. Paul as well.

West of St. Paul, somewhat south of Como. I just personally like the whole Como area, for better or worse.

Someone mentioned Phillips. While I'd tend to shy away from there myself too, I did see a decent little place there. I stopped, stared, thought better of it, sighed, and moved on. Who knows. I've never personally known anyone who lived there, and so all I "know" about it is hearsay. Perhaps it's the best kept secret in town.

It seems to me saying neighborhood X sucks isn't quite fair. There are likely "more" bad elements in that area as a whole than a "nicer" place, but if you can get on a decent block with decent people who care for their property (kinda like what you were saying), that can really make a difference. Similarly, an okay neighborhood with one dumpy house will drive the price of that house down, because it looks that much worse than it's neighbors.

I think there are some less than desirable spots of New Brighton, even though New Brighton as a whole is, I think, a very nice part of the area.

Houses that were what I'd consider very expensive before the housing dive (500K+) are still expensive. People who could afford that then, are likely to be able to still afford that now. They had, and still have, well paying, secure jobs. Its the sub-to-mid hundred thousand dollar houses that I feel will have the best turn around. People who are dumping their homes now are people who (obviously) can't afford them, with a job loss being a likely culprit, though there are plenty of other factors. I'm banking on things getting better (call me an optimist, but history is on my side), maybe *much* better, and people will look to buy homes again. And hopefully that means I can make my money back, and a little bit more. Here's to hoping.

I've been looking at this for a couple months now, on and off, and today, as if God himself is saying "hey, check this out", on CNN today they talked about the HUNDREDS of homes banks are dumping in Detroit (709 at last check) for under $3000. THREE THOUSAND. Why? They don't want to pay tax and shovel and lawn fees. While I haven't seen a house that cheap around here, that's the basic idea. Buy a dump, live in it, fix it, flip it. If you work hard, work fast, and do a decent job on it, you don't have to sell it for that much to make it a profitable deal.

[3three3]

You might also want to research the rate of home sales and average length on the market for the areas you've eyed. When looking at homes a few years back (about 5yrs) with an ex, we considered homes in North Minneapolis because they are so affordable and you can get a relatively nice house for substantially less. Then we researched the aforementioned points and quickly discarded any consideration of homes in No. Mpls. Homes stay on the market for a hefty length of time, hence...hard to flip, and the property value for many of those areas in No. Mpls has not had any substantial gain in the last decade. So, you won't make much on your flip there and it will likely be a stressful resale process.

I'd check out the areas immediately surrounding Powderhorn Park. You should be able to find similar pricing as No. Mpls with all the benefits you'd want (less crime, very strong neighborhood groups, etc). Your property will accrue much better than in Northside and I'd imagine you'd have more luck selling it later on.

With the economy continuing its downward spiral, I think your plan isn't all that bad. But, I think this for reasons not yet mentioned. As the economy continues to plummet, I think more families who previously lived in larger/more expensive homes in other areas of Minneapolis, or suburbs, will be looking to relocate in an effort to save money...or frankly, because their finances present no other options. People are going to be looking more at urban living in their efforts to be fiscally responsible. I think a lot of the areas that have been experiencing gentrification will get a boost to that process and other areas that have been on a slow upswing will become more popular. For these reasons, I'd stick with purchasing a Minneapolis home (or an area of St. Paul that is close to more trafficked spots).

Let us know how it goes.

Best of luck!

p.s: from everything I've read on CityData thus far, I think the majority of folks are unfamiliar with the more blue collar/low-income parts of Minneapolis and think they are these horrible, seedy, awful places. I went to South High, hung out at friend's homes with the sounds of gunshots in the distance, and grew up familiar with the areas so many on here have insulted. That was a long time ago and many of those areas have improved, but people still think they are scary. Powderhorn is nice and the areas immediately around it are as well (it probably has the most active/progressive community involvement of any area I know in the city). I have several friends who live around there, most are professors at the U, one is in urban planning, and the others are all low-income persons who actively participate in neighborhood activities/meetings. Phillips is improving, slowly...and I'd probably encourage you to stay away from a purchase there, unless you're not looking to sell for more than 7-10yrs. Phillips 15+ years ago...not a safe place (reference those gunshots from my high school years). Phillips now, not bad at all...folks stick to themselves. Phillips vs. Northside in safety: Phillips wins for sure.

[Camden Northsider]

Originally Posted by 3three3

You might also want to research the rate of home sales and average length on the market for the areas you've eyed. When looking at homes a few years back (about 5yrs) with an ex, we considered homes in North Minneapolis because they are so affordable and you can get a relatively nice house for substantially less. Then we researched the aforementioned points and quickly discarded any consideration of homes in No. Mpls. Homes stay on the market for a hefty length of time, hence...hard to flip, and the property value for many of those areas in No. Mpls has not had any substantial gain in the last decade. So, you won't make much on your flip there and it will likely be a stressful resale process.

p.s: from everything I've read on CityData thus far, I think the majority of folks are unfamiliar with the more blue collar/low-income parts of Minneapolis and think they are these horrible, seedy, awful places.

Phillips now, not bad at all...folks stick to themselves. Phillips vs. Northside in safety: Phillips wins for sure.

I think you should take your own advice when speaking about people being unfamiliar with "blue collar/ low-income areas" and apply it to all of the things you are saying about the northside, and your "phillips vs. northside in safety" comment is not at all a general rule and in many areas would be very incorrect, a simple look at the numbers would confirm this. And what area of North are you referring to in your generalizations? - please do be more specific - Phillips is a smaller geographic area than all of the northside and you do realize that there are 13 neighborhoods on the northside, correct?

To use my neighborhood as an example, as I know it best - there is VERY low crime here and it had some of the highest appreciating values in the city in the early to mid 2000s and houses generally sold pretty quickly when they came on the market (which in some cases is still true today) - this wasn't very surprising to anyone, as it has most things that people want in a neighborhood: tons of park space; nice, well-maintained older homes with character; extraordinarily high (for city standards) percentage of owner-occupant families (less than 10% of the housing units here are rentals). It's diverse - there are many younger mid to upper income families in the neighborhood as well as a lot of blue-collar/ moderate to lower income residents here as well (which i think is a plus as I tend to get annoyed by the uber yuppy crowd). The neighborhood public schools are award-winning (Loring and Henry - there are also private school options) and the people here are the most active, involved, and community-minded residents I've seen anywhere.

As to the local market in this "northside" neighborhood - there were still a few homes that sold in the 300s- 400Ks here as of 2007, from mid to end of 2007 the property values started declining, and in 2008 it became a sharp decline - the 2 bed/ 1 bath house my neighbors paid $210K for in 2004 would probably sell now for $115-$140K. The larger and more well-maintained homes are somewhat retaining values in the upper 100s to upper 200s, but a few years ago they would have sold for significantly more. The less-well maintained homes and foreclosures are selling for a fraction of what they would have a few years back (I never thought I would see the return of the under-100K house, let alone the under $50K house in this neighborhood, regardless of how bad the house was).

As to your point about homes sitting forever on the market, from Zillow.com right now, when you go to the page for "recently sold" in the Victory neighborhood, you'll see a list of 157 (or maybe 93) homes that have sold in the past 6 mos, mostly in Victory although for whatever reason much of Robbinsdale gets included in this search (and the occassional Southwest Mpls straggler - you'll know these by their $700K price tags) - similarly, there are only 31 "for sale" homes currently listed. I know for a fact that many of the fixer-uppers under 100K in the n'hood have been going to bidding wars for most of last year (a member on this forum can attest to that), although there are still some fixer foreclosures that seem to sit on the market for months (either that or the website they're on doesn't get updated, not sure which one is the case). And there's really no rhyme or reason to the pricing of the fixer-uppers/ foreclosures - the banks that own them don't know much or don't care about the local neighborhood markets, they just want to dump their excess of properties and I assume this saturation of for sale homes/ foreclosures in the area ZIP codes have brought down values and 'comparables' across the board up here, as has been the case elsewhere in the metro.

P.S. For a more accurate listing of 'recently sold' homes in the camden or near north areas, check out the website (click on "search sold listings") of one of what seems to be an inordinately high amount of realtors that live in this neighborhood.

[MNNative]

I've got to spread the wealth or else I'd have given ya points for that Camden! Well done.

[Aylalou]

Originally Posted by Slig

This is terrible advice, this guy sounds like he's afraid of his own shadow. I recommend heeding this advice if you just finished screwing over a drug lord for 20 kilos of heroin.



Right, so buy a house with a garage and then utilize it, problem solved.

They broke into garages there too. Sorry, wouldn't want to live in a neighborhood where they bash car windows. Never happens in my neighborhood.

[Aylalou]

Originally Posted by powerfulpup

If I told you that, Slig, I'd have to kill you. Well, I haven't set my sights on any area for sure. Listen for the gasps. North Minneapolis. HE'S CRAZY! Perhaps, but there are a slew of cheap houses here. North St. Paul as well.

West of St. Paul, somewhat south of Como. I just personally like the whole Como area, for better or worse.

Someone mentioned Phillips. While I'd tend to shy away from there myself too, I did see a decent little place there. I stopped, stared, thought better of it, sighed, and moved on. Who knows. I've never personally known anyone who lived there, and so all I "know" about it is hearsay. Perhaps it's the best kept secret in town.

It seems to me saying neighborhood X sucks isn't quite fair. There are likely "more" bad elements in that area as a whole than a "nicer" place, but if you can get on a decent block with decent people who care for their property (kinda like what you were saying), that can really make a difference. Similarly, an okay neighborhood with one dumpy house will drive the price of that house down, because it looks that much worse than it's neighbors.

I think there are some less than desirable spots of New Brighton, even though New Brighton as a whole is, I think, a very nice part of the area.

Houses that were what I'd consider very expensive before the housing dive (500K+) are still expensive. People who could afford that then, are likely to be able to still afford that now. They had, and still have, well paying, secure jobs. Its the sub-to-mid hundred thousand dollar houses that I feel will have the best turn around. People who are dumping their homes now are people who (obviously) can't afford them, with a job loss being a likely culprit, though there are plenty of other factors. I'm banking on things getting better (call me an optimist, but history is on my side), maybe *much* better, and people will look to buy homes again. And hopefully that means I can make my money back, and a little bit more. Here's to hoping.

I've been looking at this for a couple months now, on and off, and today, as if God himself is saying "hey, check this out", on CNN today they talked about the HUNDREDS of homes banks are dumping in Detroit (709 at last check) for under $3000. THREE THOUSAND. Why? They don't want to pay tax and shovel and lawn fees. While I haven't seen a house that cheap around here, that's the basic idea. Buy a dump, live in it, fix it, flip it. If you work hard, work fast, and do a decent job on it, you don't have to sell it for that much to make it a profitable deal.

Surprisingly, there are great deals in West Saint Paul and on the West Side of Saint Paul. West Saint Paul is the best kept secret - prices reasonable and low crime rate.

[Slig]

Originally Posted by Aylalou

They broke into garages there too. Sorry, wouldn't want to live in a neighborhood where they bash car windows. Never happens in my neighborhood.

Ha, I guess you wouldnt want to live in Eagan then. It happened to my car about 3 weeks after I moved into a house there near Pilot Knob and Diffley.

[Aylalou]

No wouldn't want to live there.

[Clifford63]

Originally Posted by powerfulpup

So let me preface by saying, I'm not trying to start a fight about whether or not areas of town are "ghetto". Nor do I want to get into an economics battle about the housing market or the recession or George Bush or anything. Thank you.

Housing sucks right now, right? Right. That's good for some people though. I'm very fortunate to have a bit of disposable income, and am considering moving into a dirt cheap house in a couple of the "rougher" areas of town. I'd still have a my real place near Apple Valley, I'd just switch between the two. I'd live in it, fix it, sell it in a couple years when things turn around.

Yes, there are muders and shootings in some parts of the area. Rarely (though tragically) are random people killed. Most gang violence stays in gangs. I'm more concerned about burgalry (sp?) and property crime.

So installing some home security system, motion lights outside... those are about it for my ideas for keeping things a bit safer. I'm looking for more ideas or advice. Thanks all!

Timing is everything, and projecting the numbers is never easy. Paticuarly true right now. I would also say there is a difference between "rougher" and "ghetto".

Sounds to me like you might need a down payment, and maybe ($500-$1000) a month to pay all the bills. Over 2 years that is a substantial amount of spending to recover, and that does not talk to what the down payment money might do invested in other ventures.

Say you bought a house for $100,000. You would need to sell it for $112,000 -125,000 and that is not covering the money spent fixing it up either.

Sounds risky to me. Stocks are cheap right now, but who knows when they will turn around again. Small Businesses are getting hit hard now with downturn. Where to invest is a tough question these days.

There are a few places to stay away from in terms of location, but that is really a subjective matter. Much depends on risk level you want to take.