Apple Valley/Rosemount bound...FT homebuyers

[AVguy]

Another long post, sorry.

peebah, if you filter the decision down to just one issue, appreciation, then I believe that Rosemount has more 'upside' when it comes to appreciation. Housing is currently cheaper in Rosemount, so if you believe that the housing stock should be the same in Rosemount as Apple Valley, over time Rosemount homes will need to appreciate more quickly to catch up to Apple Valley homes. Whether this will happen is the question. Looking at surrounding surburbs provides a useful example. Eagan is more expensive than Apple Valley, which is more expensive than Rosemount. Apple Valley has not caught up to Eagan in the last few decades and Rosemount has not caught up to Apple Valley. I really do not know what the rates of appreciation have been, which gets at the heart of your question, but I imagine that the rates have been similar across the surrounding suburbs. I have trouble believing that the appreciation rates will be very different between Apple Valley and Rosemount, but it could happen. You might be more likely to get 'instant equity' by finding a motivated seller.

New construction can impact the number options facing buyers in suburbs. I believe that Eden Prairie started to appreciate rapidly once available land for building new homes started to run low. (You'd have to ask the real estate expert, Robert P Stewart.) From my own experience, I know that my wife and I would have been willing to spend more money on a new house over an existing house because the existing house takes more upkeep and may require new applicances, while the construction companies were offering great deals on financing and other perks for newly constructed homes. At the very least, I believe that the availability of land in Rosemount will serve as a cap on appreciation. However, based on the current market, you probably are not going to strike it rich on personal residence appreciation anyways.

Over the next 5-10 years, there is going to be more change for Rosemount than Apple Valley, so that throws more uncertainty in Rosemount's direction. However, Rosemount could further bolster its reputation in that time. The problem is that changes can be costly and may require higher property taxes for conversion of two-lane roads to four-lane roads, possibly new schools, and new sewers as more people move to the area. I foresee more traffic moving in Rosemount's direction, especially if many of the major arterials in town remain two-lane roads. But those costs would not necessarily affect appreciation.

Speaking of roads, here is the most updated Apple Valley map: http://www.ci.apple-valley.mn.us/Maps/AV_Street_Map.pdf. As you will see on the map, the city is planning to connect both the northern and southern section of Flagstaff and will connect both sections of 147th Street. I have also read that the city plans to extend 153rd Street so that both 147th and 153rd will extend from Pennock to Pilot Knob and serve as reliever roads to County Road 42 for local traffic. This may not be done in the next five years though. Also, the gravel pit will probably close shop sometime around 2020-2025, according to another article I read.

To your point, golfgal, I have to take exception to your travel times, but I only do it as your nearby neighbor. I live on the side of Apple Valley that is fairly close to Rosemount. It only takes me two lights to enter Highway 77 from McAndrews as I take roughly the same route as you. However, there is no way in Hades that you can make it from your home in Rosemount to downtown Minneapolis in 20 minutes. I drove into work at 7:00 a.m. on Sunday this weekend and it took me 25 minutes, with almost no one on the roads, and also I live closer to the Highway 77/McAndrews interchange. Your route has additional lights at McAndrews & Pilot Knob and Pilot Knob & Diamond Path, and includes getting onto Diamond Path from your home. Your trip probably takes another five minutes from your garage door to Johnny Cake Ridge Road & McAndrews. I don't mean to call you out but I have been making this drove everyday for a year now and it takes longer. If you can go from Highway 77 & McAndrews to downtown Minneapolis in 10-15 minutes then I would like to inform the Minnesota State Patrol!

As far as taking 20 minutes to go from 160th to 140th, I assume that you are referring to Cedar Ave. Instead of taking Cedar Ave. to go from 160th to 140th, Apple Valley residents can take Garden View, Pennock, Galaxie, Pilot Knob, or Diamond Path instead of Cedar (and many do of course). In addition to those roads, residents can also take Hayes or Johnny Cake to go from from County Road 42 to 140th or McAndrews. Also notice that the busy area of "downtown" Apple Valley is only a small section on the SW side of the city. The other two-thirds of Apple Valley is east of Cedar. If people from Apple Valley get stuck between 160th and 140th, it is their own fault because there are other options! I imagine that this type of congestion is mostly an issue for Lakeville and Farmington residents getting stuck on Cedar.

I still like you though, golfgal. We are practically next-door neighbors arguing about which side of the street is better.

[golfgal]

I didn't say 10-15 to Minneapolis, look again . I WISH it only took that long.

Yes, I was talking about the traffic on Cedar taking forever. I was over there today and got from about 140th to 160th without having to stop for a single stoplight. That has NEVER happened to me.