Missouri losing a seat in Congress? (Kansas City, St. Louis: house, place to live, moving to)

[SW Missouri Dave]

Not sure exactly who these people are, but it appears they estimate Missouri will be losing a Congressional seat. They state (in the report) "Overall, the new 2010 estimates show that 12 congressional seats affecting 18 states would change hands if the new apportionment was made with the Esri provided data. Six states— Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington—would each gain a single seat, Florida would gain two seats, and Texas would gain four seats if the U.S. House of Representatives were reapportioned with the Esri population estimates, according to Election Data Services’ analysis. Eight states would lose single seats— Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, while the states of New York and Ohio now stand to each lose two seats."

http://www.electiondataservices.com/

Anyone know if this agency has any record of making correct estimates?

[Cali BassMan]

How can that be? Aren't califoriegner moving to Missouri by the Millions a month, taking over and ruining everything, just like we did in Oregon

[aragx6]

There haven't been too many people leave the MO side of the St. Louis area for the Metro East in the last 10 years (though certainly some) but I'd wager to guess that there has been a great deal of exodus to the KS side of the KC metro area in the last 10 years.

There's certainly been a lot of job growth on the KS side and a helluva lot of homes built. I'm not in a position where I can say what percentage may have already been KS residents though.

[latetotheparty]

I read somewhere in the past month or two that Missouri had one of the poorest rates of return in the country for census forms this year...... makes it hard to actually count the warm bodies......

also suspect that those that are gaining seats at the expense of those who are losing seats are actually continuing to grow at a faster clip.....

[kcmo]

Originally Posted by aragx6

There haven't been too many people leave the MO side of the St. Louis area for the Metro East in the last 10 years (though certainly some) but I'd wager to guess that there has been a great deal of exodus to the KS side of the KC metro area in the last 10 years.

There's certainly been a lot of job growth on the KS side and a helluva lot of homes built. I'm not in a position where I can say what percentage may have already been KS residents though.

Actually, the MO side of KC has been adding more people than the KS side of KC. So despite the jobs moving to KS, people are still choosing MO as a place to live.

KC is holding its own. It's St Louis that has not been doing as well.

Originally Posted by kcmo

I got bored and came up with some interesting data. (this is all population change from 2000-2009 from the US census web site)

KANSAS:

First off, there are 105 counties in Kansas. Of those, a whopping 85 of those counties lost population between 2000 and 2009.

Of the counties that gained only six added more than 5000 new residents in nearly a decade. Nearly all of the counties that did add people added under 1000 residents.

Kansas counties gained 176,480 new residents from 2000-2009, but counties lost 57,483 for a net gain of only 118,997. So lets look at the counties that gained.

The Kansas side of the KC area added 111,767 residents (which includes Lawrence and a loss of 2,772 in Wyandotte County)

The Wichita MSA added 40,638 residents (which includes a loss of 2,459 in Sumner County)

Manhattan/Junction City area added 14,047 residents

Topeka area added 6,024 residents.

So this is where the new residents moved to.

KC area 66%
Wichita area 23%
Manhattan area 8%
Topeka area added 2%
The rest of KS added 1% of the new residents (mostly in a few counties, rural KS is a net loss and a pretty big one).

So basically, if you factor in losses in WyCo, nearly 70% of all new residents in the entire state of Kansas moved to Johnson County. One county. And that one county is nothing more than a suburb of a metro area anchored in Missouri.

Wichita holds its own and does well, the Manhattan area is doing ok. The rest of the state is typically losing people.


MISSOURI:

First off, there are 115 counties in Missouri. Of those, 53 counties lost population between 2000 and 2009.

Of the counties 62 that gained 18 added more than 5000 new residents in nearly a decade. Half the other remaining counties that added people added more than 1000 residents.

Missouri counties gained 429,940 new residents from 2000-2009, but counties lost 48,425 (St Louis County accounting for half of all of MO's loss) for a net gain of 381,515. So lets look at the counties that gained.

To keep things simple, I will only look at the primary urban counties in KC and StL, not the smaller rural counties around them, even though they are in the MSA. The numbers are not significant enough to mess with (although they are included in my state wide totals).

The Missouri side of the KC area added 127,497 residents (no counties on the MO side of KC is losing people)

The Missouri side of St Louis added 75,229 residents (which includes a loss of 24k in StL County)

Springfield area added 61,125 residents

Columbia area added 20,131 residents.

So this is where the new residents moved to.

KC area 34%
St Louis area 19%
Springfield area 16%
Columbia area added 6%
The rest of MO added 25% of the new residents. Nearly all the counties south of I-70 gained. Most of the counties north of I-70 lost.

Springfield is becoming a major player in Missouri. The metro area is catching up to Wichita.

StLouis is mostly "sprawling", growing (or migrating) west into west county and st charles county, but with little net regional gain.

KC is is growing at a modest, but steady pace across all the MO side counties while growth on the KS side of KC is almost entirely in one county.

So here is the bottom line.

MO and KS added (net gain) 500,512 residents between 2000 and 2009.

Of that, 239,264 chose the Kansas City area.

So the KC area accounts for 48% of all new residents in the states of MO and KS. Not bad!

There. I'm done .

[aragx6]

Based on the above I'm not sure I understand why we're losing a seat.

[kcmo]

Originally Posted by aragx6

Based on the above I'm not sure I understand why we're losing a seat.

Because those numbers are small compared what has been going on in places like Texas and Arizona. I'm sure some states will lose more than one seat.

[aragx6]

Duh, I get it now.