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Old 11-06-2011, 09:09 PM
 
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Week away comrades! I'm a little skeptical of the format with the entire show for one fight but I get it, if it goes five rounds they need the buffer. Especially the Guida fight, that might be good stuff. But anyways, what a perfect fight... wrestling base vs. striking base and both very likable guys who show much respect to each other. X-factor of how does Cain come back from that shoulder injury, I think if he's okay he wins this one by having a more well-rounded game and better cardio.

Also = Damn Munoz beat the **** out of Leben, he had way too much positional control for Leben to deal with. Sonnen is always intriguing but I'd rather see an Silvia/Munoz fight I think. Love Munoz man, he throws punches from last month.
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Old 11-06-2011, 09:27 PM
 
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I love Oregon's own Chris Leben but I figured that was a bad match-up for the Crippler. Munoz can bring it, and he's got a tough chin.

I think the next two fights could be interesting for Anderson Silva. First of all, he'll be going up against Sonnen, who has already proven he can take down Anderson and keep him there. I just wonder what Spider has up his sleeve. One thing that makes him soooo dangerous is that he's always adding new weapons to his arsenal, just like GSP. Fighters go into the octagon thinking they've seen it all on tape, and then - bam! Front kick to the face. If Sonnen thinks it's going to be just like last fight, I think he's wrong and he might be setting himself to be taken down early.

Munoz, though, might be another intriguing match-up. He can wrestle and fist fight.
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Old 11-07-2011, 06:26 AM
 
Location: spring tx
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i have been backing jr of cain from day one, nothing changing there. i think jr has had tougher competition and after seeing the way he destroyed carwin im a believer.

i have never been a fan of leben, and i love marks game so im glad it went that route.

as for sonnen vs silva, i do know why everyone keeps assuming thats a done deal, last i heard silva and his manager have said for sonnen to get to the back of the line. maybe a mark munoz vs sonnen for the #1 spot?
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Old 11-07-2011, 05:51 PM
 
Location: spring tx
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here is the full schedule and where things will air

UFC on Fox 1 Television Schedule Is Stacked | MMA News (http://bjpenn.com/news/2011/11/07/ufc-on-fox-1-television-schedule-is-stacked-7506.html - broken link)
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Old 11-07-2011, 09:45 PM
 
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This is actually a very intriguing match-up, perhaps more so than people realize at first glance.

I guess I'll just cut to the chase and give the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter.

Cain Velasquez:

+ Great chin. Withstood a bomb from Kongo and kept coming like nothing hit him.

+ Great wrestler. Maybe the best at using old fashion wrestling as a weapon in MMA.

+ Can recover from being taken down. Saw that against Lesnar.

+ Unbelievable energy. Seen that against everyone. His pace is what is the difference maker against most fighters. You just can't train for that.

+ Solid stand-up striker. Saw that against Nogueira and Lesnar. Not one-punch KO power, but will swarm fighters with flurries and cut their face up.

- Still not sure what the victories over Lesnar and an aging Nogueira really mean. Lesnar, as impressive as he was against Mir, hasn't fought a wide range of fighters, so it's possible that the victory over him, as dominant as it was, might not mean all that much.

- Hasn't fought in more than a year. May not be a factor, but potentially a big factor.

- Not faced someone with the same combination of all-around skill and youth as Dos Santos. Kongo was a great striker. Nogueira was skilled, but old. Lesnar was a great wrestler, but not good at the stand-up game.

* A possible problem: a tendency to leave himself open for big shots. He's had the advantage on his feet against others, but he won't get away with that against Dos Santos.

Dos Santos--

+ Great striking. Accurate and quick on his feet. I was blown away by how he just picks his opponents apart. Occasionally takes a guy down with a big shot, but usually does it gradually by carving his opponents up with his boxing.

+ A skilled BJJ practitioner. Can submit guys on the ground.

+ High endurance. Several of his fights have gone the distance.

+ More active recently. Less ring rust.

+ Fought a wider range of opponents.

- Never faced someone who has Cain's energy and explosiveness. Against Carwin and Roy Nelson, he was easily the better-conditioned of the two. Cain's in much better shape.

- Although he does have occasional one-punch power, that's not usually the case. His fights typically go the distance. Cain's not going to respect his power unless he connects big and early. In short, Dos Santos had better be ready to get taken down and fight from his back. He's never done that before.

Conclusion:

If he's healthy, Cain wins this fight. Probably in the first or second round. If he's not healthy, he might start a little more slowly due to ring rust and might get caught early by Dos Santos. But unless he gets absolutely clobbered, I think Cain will eventually take over the fight and beat Junior anyway. Cain wins.
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Old 11-08-2011, 08:59 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas View Post
+ Great chin. Withstood a bomb from Kongo and kept coming like nothing hit him.
This is a good point, as I've seen people use the Kongo punch as evidence that Cain has a poor chin. That makes no sense to me, taking a perfect punch right on the button from a good striker but continuing to advance and get a takedown after only a slight wobble doesn't seem like a bad chin to me. Hell a similar punch from Kongo put Pat Barry out cold. Bad chin = either getting knocked out or doing a Lesnar and turtling.

I don't think JDS has faced anyone who is good at takedowns. Carwin has a wrestling background but I don't think he's every taken anyone down in the UFC he's just too slow. Knowing that Cain will go for the takedown given the opportunity has to affect JDS's striking some, it is an angle that Cain doesn't have to worry about.

Totally agree that x-factor is ring rust and whether fully recovered from serious shoulder injury.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:00 AM
 
Location: spring tx
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Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
I don't think JDS has faced anyone who is good at takedowns. Carwin has a wrestling background but I don't think he's every taken anyone down in the UFC he's just too slow. Knowing that Cain will go for the takedown given the opportunity has to affect JDS's striking some, it is an angle that Cain doesn't have to worry about.

Totally agree that x-factor is ring rust and whether fully recovered from serious shoulder injury.
JDS faced shane (has 5 submission wins) who hasnt had to take anyone down really, and made several attempts to take JDS down, plus is much stronger then cain.

roy nelson who while liking to bang did attempt takedowns and is known as a jiu jitsu guy (he is a black belt)

gabrial gonzaga, again a bjj black belt who tried to take jds down.

werdum, tried and actually succeeded in taking jds down if i remember correctly, before getting KOed from one punch to the chin.

those are just his ufc fights, he has several in brazil.

people forget that JDS is a bjj brown belt himself who trains with anderson silva, and the nogs. also he has fights before the ufc in brazilian organizations that ran 10 minute rounds (ie pride style) or no time limits what so ever. provided he didnt lose it, he has a gas tank that has never been questioned or tested really. i cant remember seeing him really winded or beat tired.

the thing that stands out to me with the cain/kongo fight is not the fact that cain did in fact get hurt and was "wobbled" more then once (3 times if memory serves), to which he fell back on his roots of wrestling (thats the natural thing to do obviously) but he was taken to a decision by kongo and because of it, kongo has been calling him out as "lucky" lately. hype on kongos part, sure but does kongo believe the hype? i think he does.


who wins? tough call, as i said im sticking with JDS, after the beating he put on carwin, i believe he is the next champ. he took everything carwin had, and carwin punches about as hard as anyone in the game and didnt look like he had been touched. he took every takedown attempt and shrugged it off with ease. with the exception of an "over the proverbial hill" big nog, cain has never faced anyone with a submission game, and with the exception of kongo has never faced anyone with hands. put those 2 together and you get JDS.
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Old 11-08-2011, 10:46 AM
 
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Strength or solid BJJ does not always equate to being good at taking people down, following is successful takedown percentage and takedowns/15.

Nelson 20% 0.91
Carwin 29% 1.02
Werdum 34% 2.18
Gonzaga 52% 2.93
Velasquez 72% 6.96

Obviously Cain is in a different league, Dos Santos hasn't faced a fighter with a takedown threat like Cain Velasquez. The only one on that list above 50% is Gonzaga, who secured 1/1 takedown attempts versus JDS.
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Old 11-08-2011, 11:40 AM
 
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Bottom line a win by either fighter wouldn't be a big surprise, they have both pretty well dominated anyone thrown in front of them. Then assuming winner faces Lesnar/Overeem there will be another great matchup down the road.
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Old 11-08-2011, 03:11 PM
 
Location: spring tx
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i agree that cain is a better wrestler then the bulk of the guys in the ufc, i dont know where those % came from but i will say that % can be deceiving. i mean carwins fight have averaged about a 1:45 (including the 1 .5 vs brock)before he faced JDS including 22 second guillotine, a 1:31 rnc, 29 second rnc, 1:24 guillotine. see the bulk of his fights have ended so quick that we dont know what takedowns he is capable of, on then in the jds fight he was 1 of 3, and JDS got up with ease against a monster in carwin. JDS also took carwin down 2 of 2.

big country tried to take JDS down 7 times and did not land a single takedown. not one. that says a lot about JDS defense. while roy isnt a wrestler, he is a very good bjj guy and he does know how to get a fight to the ground.


i agree either winning would not be a surprise but i seem to get the impression that most people are not giving JDS a chance, even though IMO he has faced tougher competition through out his career and handled them all relatively easily.
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