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Old 02-06-2015, 08:22 AM
 
1,489 posts, read 1,825,610 times
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Not just families move downtown... you have to think about the 20-30 year old crowd with no kids and money to spend. That is a primary factor of vibrant downtowns. These type people typically aren't buying/living in the suburbs, either.

This Spanish Fort median income vs Mobile median income is nonsense considering Mobile is 25 times bigger than SF. There are plenty more higher income households in Mobile than in SF.
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:59 AM
MPC
 
703 posts, read 1,258,553 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Southsky View Post
Not just families move downtown... you have to think about the 20-30 year old crowd with no kids and money to spend. That is a primary factor of vibrant downtowns. These type people typically aren't buying/living in the suburbs, either.

This Spanish Fort median income vs Mobile median income is nonsense considering Mobile is 25 times bigger than SF. There are plenty more higher income households in Mobile than in SF.
Yeah I thought about that too but I'm not sure about the demographics when it comes to them.
There is 45k population (18k homes) just in Mobile that make over $60k per year. And 60k should be enough to live downtown.
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Old 02-06-2015, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Mobile,Al(the city by the bay)
4,985 posts, read 9,057,517 times
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I think some are under estimating the income of Mobile. The Spring Hill area is The wealthiest neighborhood in the state according to City Data. And you don't need a lot of money downtown to support an Old Navy , Charming Charlie's , or Foot Locker downtown just the population base and foot traffic outside of downtown residents.I read one article that said over 20,000 people work downtown and majority of those jobs are high wage jobs.

And also on another note the Eastern Shore center would have had more success in Mobile tha it does in Baldwin County.
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Old 02-06-2015, 11:58 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,394 posts, read 16,308,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PortCity View Post
I think some are under estimating the income of Mobile. The Spring Hill area is The wealthiest neighborhood in the state according to City Data. And you don't need a lot of money downtown to support an Old Navy , Charming Charlie's , or Foot Locker downtown just the population base and foot traffic outside of downtown residents.I read one article that said over 20,000 people work downtown and majority of those jobs are high wage jobs.

And also on another note the Eastern Shore center would have had more success in Mobile tha it does in Baldwin County.
City Data's website used to be alot easier to navigate, i remember there being a rankings page but cant find it so i just googled it.

Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed

90% sure this is a competing website and this link will be taken down, but clearly it shows Spanish Fort as a higher income than Spring hill assuming that is Spring Hill as it labels it "Mobile".

And yes, i am aware of the population difference, but as a clearly stated, the "if you build it, they will come model doesnt always work.

The Demographics you speak of have existed for years and yet no developer has ever capitalized on it.

Last edited by Yac; 02-18-2015 at 08:28 AM..
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Old 02-07-2015, 01:30 AM
 
Location: East Mobile
686 posts, read 1,195,037 times
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The Mitchell Company has done well with Legacy Village in Spring Hill.
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Old 02-07-2015, 05:44 AM
MPC
 
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The Eastern Shore Centre I don't think is in bad condition but Spanish Fort has 7,503 according to the Zip Atlas link, whereas in Mobile the 36695 zip has 33,010 and only 2,457 less in income per home. In GDP, Mobile would be at $1.836 billion to Spanish Fort's $435.9 million, a difference of $1.4B in income. Now take in the extra 27 percent the average we spend on retail annually REF. That's an extra 378m, that would increase the Eastern Shore Centre's sales per square foot to $700 plus what ever it is now. That's real high for even a mall, average is 200-300 psf.

Of course in Spanish Fort the ESC is more of an one stop shop and there isn't much competition. In Mobile there is more competition, so it would be unrealistic that a single development would attract all the potential shoppers in the area. My point is, in downtown there would mixed use, creating retail everywhere. And with the higher incomes would come better shops. Mobile has the population to support an ESC, look at Bel Air which is 2x the size of the ESC.

Put the mixed use downtown, up it to 10k units and now 25,000 living in under a square mile. There's another problem, is the density. No where in Alabama is there really any density. If all of Spanish Fort lived in a square mile then the ESC wouldn't have a tenant problem but it's 41 square miles, as 36695 (on zip atlas) is 47.8 square miles.
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Old 02-07-2015, 08:49 AM
 
1,489 posts, read 1,825,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
City Data's website used to be alot easier to navigate, i remember there being a rankings page but cant find it so i just googled it.

Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed

90% sure this is a competing website and this link will be taken down, but clearly it shows Spanish Fort as a higher income than Spring hill assuming that is Spring Hill as it labels it "Mobile".

And yes, i am aware of the population difference, but as a clearly stated, the "if you build it, they will come model doesnt always work.

The Demographics you speak of have existed for years and yet no developer has ever capitalized on it.
Spring Hill is part of a much bigger zip code, which goes all the way to the state line. That wouldn't really be a true indicator.

Last edited by Yac; 02-18-2015 at 08:28 AM..
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Old 02-07-2015, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Mobile,Al(the city by the bay)
4,985 posts, read 9,057,517 times
Reputation: 1954
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
City Data's website used to be alot easier to navigate, i remember there being a rankings page but cant find it so i just googled it.

Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowed

90% sure this is a competing website and this link will be taken down, but clearly it shows Spanish Fort as a higher income than Spring hill assuming that is Spring Hill as it labels it "Mobile".

And yes, i am aware of the population difference, but as a clearly stated, the "if you build it, they will come model doesnt always work.

The Demographics you speak of have existed for years and yet no developer has ever capitalized on it.
Spring hill has a median income of $206k and the surrounding neighborhoods range from 67-97k according to city data.Spanishfort is $86k.As far as a city wide representation Spanishforts over all median income is $86k with a population of 7k.Mobile's over all income is less on average but we have more a lot more than 7k people making $86k a year. The Spring hill area and the surrounding neighborhoods trumps that alone.

There are about 3k residents living within the Hank Aron loop with incoms ranging from $60-100k. Reaching a goal of 7k which is Spanish Forts population is not that far away with proper planning.

Last edited by Yac; 02-18-2015 at 08:28 AM..
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Old 02-09-2015, 12:08 AM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,394 posts, read 16,308,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrPortCity View Post
The Eastern Shore Centre I don't think is in bad condition but Spanish Fort has 7,503 according to the Zip Atlas link, whereas in Mobile the 36695 zip has 33,010 and only 2,457 less in income per home. In GDP, Mobile would be at $1.836 billion to Spanish Fort's $435.9 million, a difference of $1.4B in income. Now take in the extra 27 percent the average we spend on retail annually REF. That's an extra 378m, that would increase the Eastern Shore Centre's sales per square foot to $700 plus what ever it is now. That's real high for even a mall, average is 200-300 psf.

Of course in Spanish Fort the ESC is more of an one stop shop and there isn't much competition. In Mobile there is more competition, so it would be unrealistic that a single development would attract all the potential shoppers in the area. My point is, in downtown there would mixed use, creating retail everywhere. And with the higher incomes would come better shops. Mobile has the population to support an ESC, look at Bel Air which is 2x the size of the ESC.

Put the mixed use downtown, up it to 10k units and now 25,000 living in under a square mile. There's another problem, is the density. No where in Alabama is there really any density. If all of Spanish Fort lived in a square mile then the ESC wouldn't have a tenant problem but it's 41 square miles, as 36695 (on zip atlas) is 47.8 square miles.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Southsky View Post
Spring Hill is part of a much bigger zip code, which goes all the way to the state line. That wouldn't really be a true indicator.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PortCity View Post
Spring hill has a median income of $206k and the surrounding neighborhoods range from 67-97k according to city data.Spanishfort is $86k.As far as a city wide representation Spanishforts over all median income is $86k with a population of 7k.Mobile's over all income is less on average but we have more a lot more than 7k people making $86k a year. The Spring hill area and the surrounding neighborhoods trumps that alone.

There are about 3k residents living within the Hank Aron loop with income ranging from $60-100k. Reaching a goal of 7k which is Spanish Forts population is not that far away with proper planning.
I have yet to understand the down playing of Spanish Fort as a population when all that separates the Eastern Shore Centre and Spanish Fort from Daphne is the interstate. The subdivisions along 225 arent in the Spanish Fort City limits or in the 36527 zip code. Also, Spanish Fort's zip code includes all that Highland Park land, which is woods, no one lives there(although one day, 27,000 people could, their estimates, not mine).

The Spring hill area(206K Median income) you guys are talking about only has 627 households . The next closest was 90K at 637, then 379 households at $84,010, then 950 at 82,448. The it drops off to 71,000 for the next income.

Spanish Fort has one area with 2,325 households making $96,364. Another with 1,217 and $96,282 in median income, another with 1,736 households making 85,260, Lake forest with 1,154 households with 81,250 income.

do the math(to be clear, i realize median and average are not the same)
those 627 households in Spring hill make 129,162,000
those 2,325 households in Spanish Fort make 224,046,300


And my point about comparing Mobile's possibility to Spanish Fort is that they can not sustain the Stores in the Eastern Shore Center with the local population or the transient population from the interstate. They have about 30% vacancy rate which is going up by the month.

As for the overall argument here.

Im not saying it isnt possible, but with all the vacancy's down town,empty grass lots north of St. Anthony Street, the lower property cost(compared to other cities), the relative population yall speak of, no investment company or development firm has ever publicly showed interest in doing what you speak of and i honestly believe it is because they have a team of people working for them who have told them it isnt going to work.



If someone were to cater to the population at large, I could see it happening. In the larger population centers like some already mentioned in previous post, and like Salt Lake City , Kansas City, Albuquerque, they catered to the entire population of the city so that downtown was for everyone, and it worked.
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Old 02-09-2015, 07:42 AM
MPC
 
703 posts, read 1,258,553 times
Reputation: 514
There are at least 7,962 homes that make 76,534 per year in Mobile not even counting Satsuma which has some high income house holds also. There are at least 10,000 homes making more than $70k. The population in 36527 is in 2010 is 12,109 with an average income of 65,901. In 2010, the 36695 zip code in Mobile has 45,118 with an average income of 53,851.

My point is, as I said before you don't have to make vast amounts of money to live downtown. The GDP of 36527 is 320 million as compared to 36695 at 972 million. There is a larger population, almost 4 times as much. If downtown started to grow, they could afford to cater it to higher income groups because Mobile has them.

Also just to note that a lot of the zip codes on the zip atlas link you provided have populations of less than 1,500. There is 22 on the first page alone, a lot with less than 500 population. Going by that, if Spring Hill had it's on zip code with 1,500 residents, it would be the richest in the nation at 206k.
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