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I wish I could find the link. We are loosing less than 100 people per year net to Baldwin County. It was like 840 something moving to Mobile from Baldwin County per year and 900 something moving to Baldwin from Mobile county.
My neighbor across the street (family of 6) moved to Mobile from Spanish Fort last year and this year the neighbors two houses down moved to Mobile from Daphne (family of 4).
The leakage to Baldwin is not as big as you think. The biggest problem for Mobile is people moving into the area for jobs in Mobile County that are settling on the Eastern Shore. We are offering incentives and Baldwin is collecting 20-25% of the jobs recruited. Baldwin County communities need to give more to companies looking to locate into Mobile.
I think the city will grow and people will be like where’d that come from lol. A big catalyst will be the change of a couple city council members. Depending on who gets in there, there will be a huge difference hopefully. I feel like Mobile has missed out on a lot of good stuff bc of the super majority vote and just the city council period.
I think there’s about 70,000 people that live just outside of the city limits within 3 miles. Mobile is only trying to get a portion of the70k . If Mobile gets any of the annexations it has planned, it’ll be the most populous in bama easily. Most of that pop. Increase will come from just outside the shillinger corridor which is an advantage over a sprawl.
The most disappointing part of town is where the malls are. I have to agree with Nate on everything he said there. I wish they would just tear it down. And have more of an outlet type thing going on.
In the next 5 years a lot will change. Dredging of the port will be done .The airport will have moved. A phase of The bridge should be nearing completion. There’s just so much but those are 3 big ones.
I’ve also heard some of the people in baldwin are moving back and to mobile county but there’s no way of showing any immediate proof of that unless you’re speaking with realtors
We will see. A lot is riding on the Mayor and council races.
I wish I could find the link. We are loosing less than 100 people per year net to Baldwin County. It was like 840 something moving to Mobile from Baldwin County per year and 900 something moving to Baldwin from Mobile county.
My neighbor across the street (family of 6) moved to Mobile from Spanish Fort last year and this year the neighbors two houses down moved to Mobile from Daphne (family of 4).
The leakage to Baldwin is not as big as you think. The biggest problem for Mobile is people moving into the area for jobs in Mobile County that are settling on the Eastern Shore. We are offering incentives and Baldwin is collecting 20-25% of the jobs recruited. Baldwin County communities need to give more to companies looking to locate into Mobile.
I’ve got one aunt living in bon secour that moved back down here from Missouri, and another that moved to elberta from Texas. They both grew up in Mobile and every time we see them at holidays they’re always like “Mobile is awful, everyone’s leaving to come over here.” I’ve seen where Baldwin county’s growth is overwhelmingly from people coming outside of the region but can’t ever bring up definitive numbers to show them. The best I can do is respond that Mobile lost 7k people in the last 10 years while Baldwin county has gained 50k, so even assuming everyone of those 7k people went to Baldwin county(far from reality), then that still only makes up a small percentage of that total number. For some reason people have the stigma in their mind that Mobile county’s lack of growth is because everyone from Mobile county is moving to Baldwin county.
I’ve got one aunt living in bon secour that moved back down here from Missouri, and another that moved to elberta from Texas. They both grew up in Mobile and every time we see them at holidays they’re always like “Mobile is awful, everyone’s leaving to come over here.” I’ve seen where Baldwin county’s growth is overwhelmingly from people coming outside of the region but can’t ever bring up definitive numbers to show them. The best I can do is respond that Mobile lost 7k people in the last 10 years while Baldwin county has gained 50k, so even assuming everyone of those 7k people went to Baldwin county(far from reality), then that still only makes up a small percentage of that total number. For some reason people have the stigma in their mind that Mobile county’s lack of growth is because everyone from Mobile county is moving to Baldwin county.
Have you checked out my calculations on "Alabama is growing" thread on main alabama page? Area likely grew 71k with Mobile County gaining nearly 30k
First, I think we will start to see suburbination of South Mobile County (more specifically, the Lauerdine Road, (Actual South) DIP, Highway 90 and Mcdonald Road corridors). I think we will see the same growth as we see in West Mobile along with a new commercial corridor (mcdonald road) and an expanding commercial area at Bayley's Corner on DIP. In the other DIP (within city limits) I think we will see gentrification of the corridor South of I-10 (reinforced by the fact that MPD Precinct 1 will be moving into the area).
In West Mobile, I think growth will continue on the current path or actually slow down given the lake and the land around the lake being owned by the water dept. The soon to be SnowRoad/McFarland commercial corridor could allow growth to continue in West Mobile which is why I think its an "if" situation. I think we may also begin hearing talks of a new interstate/highway bypass by the end of the 2030 census. In the Highway 98 regions I think you'll start seeing more growth in Semmes and Wilmer since there will be a highway bypass around (198), the locals won't have to worry with as much traffic. Along the 198 corridor I think we will start to see some subdivisions begin to pop up, (particularly on the highway 45 corridor) I also imagine that the 198/I-65 interchange will begin reconstruction as its a nightmare and its obvious that there are plans to realign 213 to the new service road by looking at it. I think we might see Mcintosh see the first steps toward suburbination
In the inner loop I think Downtown Mobile will thrive, the areas around will gentrify like Midtown. Ann Street will gentrify, I actually think the Martin Luther King Ave and St Stephens Road Corridor will Gentrify as well as Broad Street Corridor. Prichard I believe will finally start to see the light. I think it will actually explode in growth and population almost overnight given several reasons: half of inner prichard is empty lots, great walkablility potential, road structure and lots are made for density, quick access to I-165 and Downtown, Its cheap, and plenty of room for commercial building.
In Baldwin County, I imagine Daphne's growth may slow down and the Fairhope, Spanish Fort will begin to grow at the rates. Loxley will explode in populations with Robertsdale and Stapleton. I think Foley will continue to grow at the same rate. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach will hit capacity. I believe we will also see the rise of the North Baldwin County suburbs with the incorporation of Stockton as the first suburbs (or second? I'm not sure what to consider Bay Minette). I also believe that by the end of the census that Baldwin County will finally be incorporated in the Mobile metro along with George County MS.
As for the fate of Mobile, I have no idea its a wild card. It all depends on who's in charge, With our current leaders (@ city council) we'll be lucky to get 10k exclusively from infilling and high density construction around downtown (also given that there's little land left for development in general within city limits. But with more ambitious leaders, we could easily become the largest city in Alabama just annexing a few square miles of West Mobile AND grab some undeveloped land for more growth later on. (we would be sitting pretty with a population of 208k (likely 215k in reality) if it weren't for certain city council members) A single individual stands in the way of us ending with a population of 205k in the next 10 years or 240k or more
For the rest of Mobile county I’m gonna have to disagree slightly with surge on this one. I think Chickasaw and Prichard will continue to decline. Their houses aren’t necessarily historic, high poverty, aging houses and buildings in general. Their populations are declining and I don’t see anyone from outside Mobile looking at either place as a destination they’d want to live, especially if walkable areas in Mobile are available with positive momentum. Prichard is ineptly run as a city government by keeping their parks closed and citing CDC guidelines as why, even tho the CDC guidelines say you can open parks. They can’t pay the pensions of their city workers. It’s just embarrassing.
I do agree that 158 will see a lot of developments along it. I agree that semmes will grow. I think they’ll double their population to 10k through annexations and new neighborhoods. Saraland will be close to 20k people because of the same reasons and the fact that they’ve got their own school system.
Barring any major hurricanes or oil spills, I also envision growth for dauphin island if they complete their aloe bay project and create more of a commercial corridor that pretty much doesn’t exist there right now. Bayou la Batre is hypothetically in a good location, but the entire place is kinda like Prichard with no upward momentum.
Baldwin county is definitely wild. If the wolf’s bay bridge project and Mobile river bridge project get done in a timely fashion then they’ll alter the growth. I easily see elberta becoming similar to foley if that bridge and roadway project gets done and runs right next to it. I think orange beach as pretty much run out of room to expand, but gulf shores has a ton of land north of the canal which will make up a ton of their population growth. It’ll be basically southern foley but will technically be within the city of gulf shores.
Foley is gonna dominate since they’re close to the beaches, but don’t demand high home prices like ones at the beach do. It has a ton of open land in pretty much all directions that it could add new subdivisions. I think they’ll be close to 30k in population. Summerdale, Robertsdale, and loxley are all primed to continue their growth. I don’t think any of them are gonna have crazy amounts of population growth, but will continue to have a lot relative to their sizes.
Spanish fort will get substantial growth from their areas to the east and north. I could envision them having about 5-8k more people. I think their lack of a true downtown type area hurts them significantly out of the 3 eastern shore cities. Daphne’s growth rate will continue to slow down. I think their downtown is rather small in comparison to Fairhope.
Fairhope is gonna become the dominant force in the county. I think Daphne, foley, and Fairhope will be in a 3 way tie for most population, but with Fairhope going to beat them all in the long run. It has a ton of space to the south, an impressive downtown for their size. St. Michael is huge for them because it shows a large growth in the population enough to warrant a private high school opening. I know everyone doesn’t follow the NFL, but for a near 2 decade starting NFL QB to retire and instantly move to your city, you know you’re doing something right. It’s the most well balanced city in Baldwin county
Baldwin county is definitely wild. If the wolf’s bay bridge project and Mobile river bridge project get done in a timely fashion then they’ll alter the growth. I easily see elberta becoming similar to foley if that bridge and roadway project gets done and runs right next to it. I think orange beach as pretty much run out of room to expand, but gulf shores has a ton of land north of the canal which will make up a ton of their population growth. It’ll be basically southern foley but will technically be within the city of gulf shores.
Foley is gonna dominate since they’re close to the beaches, but don’t demand high home prices like ones at the beach do. It has a ton of open land in pretty much all directions that it could add new subdivisions. I think they’ll be close to 30k in population. Summerdale, Robertsdale, and loxley are all primed to continue their growth. I don’t think any of them are gonna have crazy amounts of population growth, but will continue to have a lot relative to their sizes.
Spanish fort will get substantial growth from their areas to the east and north. I could envision them having about 5-8k more people. I think their lack of a true downtown type area hurts them significantly out of the 3 eastern shore cities. Daphne’s growth rate will continue to slow down. I think their downtown is rather small in comparison to Fairhope.
Fairhope is gonna become the dominant force in the county. I think Daphne, foley, and Fairhope will be in a 3 way tie for most population, but with Fairhope going to beat them all in the long run. It has a ton of space to the south, an impressive downtown for their size. St. Michael is huge for them because it shows a large growth in the population enough to warrant a private high school opening. I know everyone doesn’t follow the NFL, but for a near 2 decade starting NFL QB to retire and instantly move to your city, you know you’re doing something right. It’s the most well balanced city in Baldwin county
so at some point in the recent history some land was bought along Mcdonald Road, Maybe some commercial development I've been talking about, or maybe not. Only time will tell. https://www.landwatch.com/mobile-cou.../pid/337266825
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. I feel like Mobile has missed out on a lot of good stuff bc of the super majority vote and just the city council period. 
