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First of all, there is not one rate. 26 factors determine an individual borrower's rate on their specific program at the exact time of day that it is locked.
Why so much concern? Will you not be able to buy, or not want to, if rates rise a quarter? Are you budgeting that tightly?
If you are projecting, take whatever you think the "rate" is today, and add a quarter to a half point to it. If you can still survive, then move on to other things.