Will jumbo loan rates come down?? (2009, credit score, 30 year fixed, mortgage rates)

[mrstewart]

We would like to refinance but the jumbo loans are still staying put...any guesses on rates for jumbos coming down? Or will they?

[chet everett]

Depending on your credit score I have seen jumbos that are quite tolerable in Illinois -- under 5.5%. Not exactly giving it away, but at least enough to spur some folks to buy / refi.

I suspect there will be some whoopla for about a month or so, related to the new administration switch over, and rates will fall.

After that it is anybody's guess if they stablize, continue to drop or work their way back up...

[helppls]

Does anyone know what the historic rates for 30yrs loans are? ie. Lowest and Highest? I'm not pulling up a lot when I google. I've been reading somewhere people are prediciting somewhere in the 3%s by mid-2009 but can that really be? When was the last time rates were in the 3%s????

[chet everett]

The markets for mortgages were very different prior to the S&L expansion in the 70s. It is entirely likely that rates of under 4% were common when mortgages themselves were less common -- tremendous expansion of the availability of credit came with the expansion of government backing.

[mrstewart]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Depending on your credit score I have seen jumbos that are quite tolerable in Illinois -- under 5.5%. Not exactly giving it away, but at least enough to spur some folks to buy / refi.

I suspect there will be some whoopla for about a month or so, related to the new administration switch over, and rates will fall.

After that it is anybody's guess if they stablize, continue to drop or work their way back up...

Our scores are in the excellent range but when I checked the rates last week here in Virginia they were at 7.18.

This may be the first time I wished I lived in cold Illinois

Thanks for the replies!!

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by chet everett

Depending on your credit score I have seen jumbos that are quite tolerable in Illinois -- under 5.5%. Not exactly giving it away, but at least enough to spur some folks to buy / refi.

I suspect there will be some whoopla for about a month or so, related to the new administration switch over, and rates will fall.

After that it is anybody's guess if they stablize, continue to drop or work their way back up...

Unless it is a portfolio product for under a million, a private banker giving a sweetheart of a deal to a very high net worth client, or a credit union giving back some profit sharing via incredibly low rates I don't think that any true jumbo (not super conforming or conforming jumbo but non-agency jumbo) is seeing rates in the 5% range. True non-agency jumbo product is being quoted in the high 7% to low 8% range on a 30 year fixed by most of the big banks. Of course there are a couple of niche lenders that can offer portfolio product under a million with much better rates than that, but expect very conservative loan to values. And 5.5% for a true non-agency jumbo is very good. It's much better than a 10 year average of even conventional 30 year fixed mortgages.

Originally Posted by helppls

Does anyone know what the historic rates for 30yrs loans are? ie. Lowest and Highest? I'm not pulling up a lot when I google. I've been reading somewhere people are prediciting somewhere in the 3%s by mid-2009 but can that really be? When was the last time rates were in the 3%s????

This link tracks mortgage rates back to 1971 and rates have never averaged in the 3% range between then and now. I also don't know where you have been reading it but I don't believe for a second that rates will hit the 3% range within basically 6 months. The Treasury would basically have to buy up every mortgage bond and all agency debt and sell it for a loss for that to happen, IMO.

Freddie Mac: Weekly Mortgage Market Surveys