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It depends on the type of loan you are looking for. I can't come close to a CU on ARMS and they can't come close to me on fixed rates. You have to decide what kind of risk you are willing to take on for the reward of a rate slightly lower for a few years, nothing gauranteed beyond 1st adjustment date. Another way to look at it objectively is if you were to retire in 10 years (time in home) would you have all your retirement income in the stock market or would you be moving a significant portion to safe investments. If your a gambler go for the ARM, but realize the house always wins- 4 people may walk out a winner with an ARM but 6 will lose.