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"Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher."
In the article he says Lincoln was almost an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release. What do you think about what Lucas predicts - less movies, in theaters for a year like a Broadway play - higher ticket prices?
There are going to be more movies released, not fewer, but the days of the big budget mega-movies are numbered.
On this bit:
Quote:
Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television "much more adventurous" than film nowadays.
"I think eventually the Lincolns will go away and they're going to be on television," Lucas said. "As mine almost was," Spielberg interjected. "This close -- ask HBO -- this close."
They are both 100% correct. TV is where the future of storytelling on film is. But even TV is changing. Shortly, your TV, internet, and phone will all be the same thing. We're already almost there. Movies will join them before long.
These days, even your big budget blockbusters are not making most of their money from ticket sales. That's a big chunk, yes, but the lion's share of a movie's profit comes from licensing.
The traditional movie business seems very bloated and stale.
-Bad writing. Lack of good ideas. Over reliance of CGI and special effects. 3D I think mostly has been hype and hot air. There's not much value anymore.
When I bring up entertainment with my parents (in their 60's)....they mention that movies use to be double features! Two movies for the price of one ticket. Its hard for people under 35 to comprehend that. You're paying twice as much now for a worse product.
I don't believe their predictions at all. People still need somewhere to take dates. People need to leave the house, sometimes. Movies should get back to the basics.
Less previews and filler at the beginning. Simple basics like popcorn, soda, snacks. Why don't they show more old movies. I'm sure there's plenty of people now who'd like to see.....the original star wars trilogy on the big screen, ET, Halloween, etc. Why not set up certain events or themes.
I'd love to see more retro theaters from the 80's. They also need to get away from this youth obsession. I'm sure there are plenty of 40-60 year olds that would like to see intelligent, well written movies.
I refuse to pay $25 to see a movie. If these changes happen, I'll take the money I would have spent on movie tickets and use it to buy the biggest HDTV I can find. The payback would only be a couple years or so.
I may have to wait a few months to see a new movie. I can live with that.
The traditional movie business seems very bloated and stale.
-Bad writing. Lack of good ideas. Over reliance of CGI and special effects. 3D I think mostly has been hype and hot air. There's not much value anymore.
When I bring up entertainment with my parents (in their 60's)....they mention that movies use to be double features! Two movies for the price of one ticket. Its hard for people under 35 to comprehend that. You're paying twice as much now for a worse product.
I don't believe their predictions at all. People still need somewhere to take dates. People need to leave the house, sometimes. Movies should get back to the basics.
Less previews and filler at the beginning. Simple basics like popcorn, soda, snacks. Why don't they show more old movies. I'm sure there's plenty of people now who'd like to see.....the original star wars trilogy on the big screen, ET, Halloween, etc. Why not set up certain events or themes.
I'd love to see more retro theaters from the 80's. They also need to get away from this youth obsession. I'm sure there are plenty of 40-60 year olds that would like to see intelligent, well written movies.
I think we'll soon see lots of competition from high quality low budget movies that are crowd sourced (Kickstarter). With the right people, a little bit of money can go a long way.
Everything media related is being changed: Radio, TV, newspapers, etc. It is inevitable that movies will as well. Im not sure I agree with Spielburg's sentiments, but I think something will change because the current model isn't that great anymore and is very bloated, as someone else said, and inefficient.
The internet has changed the model--eventually, in some form or fashion, the movie dynamic will change as well. Heck, it has already changed a little with all the movies you can buy/rent and get streamed to your personal device.
I do agree that people will always need somewhere to take a date, but I still think, in some fashion movies will change...
I always thought that movies, good or bad, were showing in theaters for less and less time (down from months to weeks over the last decade). And that the reason for this was that the bottom line called for the shows to play in the theaters only long enough to develop a reputation. From then on, it was DVD sales and merchandising, where the 'real' money came from.
Also, the gradual shift by theaters from film to digital is nearing the end (one article I read in March said about 80% of the major screens have made the change), saving studios about $3,000 per movie for the production and distribution of all those celluloid-filled metal cans.
I think the easy and cheap access via the Internet will also force the movie industry to keep re-inventing itself to provide movie watching experiences that are superior to your own couch and popcorn popper.
I remember quite well the time I first went to a "new" theater that was my first experience with Stadium Seating. The larger screen and seats, (that were like first class airline seats vs the steerage sardine-chairs), and a massive sound system, changed me from a 1-2 theater trips per year to about 1 per week. A huge change.
I think the shift to 3D is nearly complete. They are finally making the live-action ones where the 3D isn't the reason for viewing, but absolutely adds to the immerse enjoyment. I've yet to see a HiDef (48 frames per second), but I've read reviews that it too is a huge jump in enjoyment.
I have to say though, that I think in the long term, the movie industry will keep up making blockbusters, but they will become CouchBusters, and the theater part of the industry will go the way of the video-tape rental stores. The plummeting cost of TV electronics will give us super hi def, 3D, wall-sized TVs with the image the same as in theaters. And I decided long ago that $20 for popcorn and a coke was too much and stopped buying any concessions. Since that's the source of profit for the Brick-n-mortar, I expect those will gradually fail, leaving the outstanding ones (IE: IMAX superscreens) as the last.
The economic model for regular movie theatres is almost completely gone. Most theatres have 2K digital projection, 4K is coming to homes near you. Innovation has left the big screen for cable, and the way people view has changed as well.
Spielberg is nuts to even dream about a return to the days of E.T. playing for over a year. Lucas sold out to Disney for a reason. Lucas has always been more about money than quality and he has seen the writing on the wall. ESPN is dropping 3D sports due to lack of public interest, and 3D in theatres will remain more of a novelty than mainstream.
Until theatres come up with full color holographic presentation (as a technology that is way too expensive or complex for use at home), the model will continue to fail.
If a theater is going to charge $25 for a movie ticket, they had better be showing the best movie ever made. Which isn't going to happen. Which means people will stay home. Which will mean fewer ticket sales and increeased piracy.
Which means it won't happen. It doesn't matter if the movie is in 3D with smell-o-vision and a massage. The masses are not going to pay $25 for a movie ticket.
The future of stories on film is TV. That's where all the quality writing, acting, and directing is happening these days. The only advantage the movies still have are gargantuan special effects budgets.
I see change coming. Hell, I've SEEN CHANGE already. But no, movies will not be in theaters too long because there comes saturation point where you will have 1-2 or 0 people in the theater and at that point the theater owner throws in the towel because they can't afford to keep the place open.
I can see better movies, better productions, serial style story telling being more popular. Things like Game of Thrones prove that. I've long said most shows on tv ought to be miniseries so they can tell a great story without falling into the trap of so many that start out strong and end up embarrassing and pointless (looking at you Three and a Half Men). I'm seeing movies do that with LOTR and the multiple Marvel sequels too. There will always be a place for the small budget film, I enjoy those indies more than most feature films that come out. Too much politics are involved in those studio heads insist on certain named actors or they won't even greenlight the project. As a result we watch the same people over and over and miss out on so much talent. I guess it's them "protecting their own" but it give the view less enjoyment.
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