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Old 12-12-2015, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Dallas,Texas
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens is set to open on this coming Thursday night 12/17 so let's have a box office prediction thread. I think obviously this movie will have the potential to become the biggest box office movie of all time for several reasons. If the movie is as good as the trailers, this should be a popular movie for the Star Wars faithful. Also, factor in the era of $15.00 movie tickets for large screen IMAX showings, it's opening on a record 4,500 screens, record advance movie tickets already sold and practically all movie theaters showing it 14-16 hours a day for probably the first 2 weeks at least, and you have a recipe for large numbers. Currently Jurassic World holds the 3 day opening weekend record at 208 million. The Force Awakens should easily surpass this in my estimation. I'm thinking 300 million opening weekend and I'm going to say now that it will surpass 2 billion worldwide when all is said and done. BTW, AMC Theaters has said that it will initially have 36 of it's theaters running the movie around the clock on opening day. I'm sure we will hear news stories about die-hard fans seeing it 3-7 times in the opening weekend.
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Old 12-12-2015, 02:17 PM
 
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"Star Wars" is a brand. That's pretty much the reason right there.
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Old 12-13-2015, 08:00 AM
 
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I think it will have a record breaking opening week, but it shouldn't earn as much money as other winter blockbusters like Titanic (adjusted for inflation) and Avatar. A lot of big movies are releasing late winter, while Titanic and Avatar earned most of their box office money in the dead winter months with no competition. For that reason, I don't see it topping Avatar's $760 million domestic/$2.8 billion worldwide.
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Old 12-13-2015, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Dallas,Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nc17 View Post
I think it will have a record breaking opening week, but it shouldn't earn as much money as other winter blockbusters like Titanic (adjusted for inflation) and Avatar. A lot of big movies are releasing late winter, while Titanic and Avatar earned most of their box office money in the dead winter months with no competition. For that reason, I don't see it topping Avatar's $760 million domestic/$2.8 billion worldwide.
I'm going to have to disagree here. I think it will gross $840 million domestically and will have done so by February 7th. I'm also going to revise my prediction on worldwide gross and go with 2.65 billion which would make it shy of Avatar's 2.8.
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Old 12-14-2015, 06:46 AM
 
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Some reasons why it will top Avatar:

-Wide expansion of theaters, especially foreign theaters
-ticket price inflation
-Nostalgia (original cast), brand recognition (top-heavy gross)

Some reasons why it won't:

-Diminished scarcity (the third series isn't as exciting as the long-awaited 2nd series)
-Avatar marketed new technologies, benefited from the short-lived novelty/WoM of 3D
-Competition for Star Wars' revenue and theater count starts as early as February, but certainly in March with Batman/Superman
-Weakened foreign currency compared to 2009/10
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Old 12-14-2015, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Southern Colorado
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$260 million opening weekend.
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Old 12-14-2015, 11:50 AM
 
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I really think that this could be the first film to break the 3 billion worldwide mark.
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Old 12-14-2015, 10:48 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
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180 m opening, 2.0 b total take.
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Old 12-14-2015, 10:49 PM
 
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I'll say 10% more, inflation adjusted, then Episode 1 did.

I really think it will be right on par with that with a bump due to Imax sales.

There's plenty of availability to see it, even in my area which has 3 theaters (Greenville, SC)

There are 3 showtimes with availability left on Friday for Imax.

So.. top-15 all time inflation adjusted.

Remember, everyone thought Episode 1 would blow all records away.. And.. Many it did.. But, it didn't live up to expectations because.. well, it was crap. And people had been waiting 16 years at that point.. We've only been waiting 10..
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Old 12-15-2015, 10:21 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
Remember, everyone thought Episode 1 would blow all records away.. And.. Many it did.. But, it didn't live up to expectations because.. well, it was crap. And people had been waiting 16 years at that point.. We've only been waiting 10..
TFA will mint money because it has the legacy actors: Hamill, Fisher, Ford.

It's when they stop appearing in these new films that the studio will be (just a little) more concerned about box office grosses.

For now, their biggest problem(s) will be getting the lids on these bad boys to close sufficiently to latch.


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