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The immediate thing that comes to mind when seeing the Louisville list is that it includes developments outside of Louisville. The Nashville list is Davidson County alone.
Also, building permits from 2016...
Metro - total units - single family - 5+ unit - 5+ unit structures - valuation - val per unit
Tale of the tape: Nashville has 3.5x as many units, 4x as many single family, and more than 3x as many multifamily. The valuation speaks for itself. These numbers aren't remotely close.
This is just residential.
Office? 2016 4Q outlook:
Nashville MSA - U/C 2,731,079 sq ft, $23.59 rental rate, 1,139,944 sq ft net absorption, 6.2% vacancy
Louisville MSA - U/C 0 sq ft, $17.44 rental rate, 361,812 sq ft net absorption, 12.2% vacancy
Nashville had nearly 4 million sq ft U/C to Louisville's 0. That is a gargantuan difference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
So if Nashville has some of the most unprecedented construction grown in the US, Louisville is not far behind.
Find a list that puts Louisville in the same area code as Nashville as far as construction. It is not close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Louisville has 9 BILLION in active construction or proposals. Why are people ignoring this?
Louisville is downplayed by many on these forums and I am here to tell you it is BOOMING. And if you haven't been lately, you will be shocked. As I have stated many times, Louisvillians, espeiclly long time natives, love their city, but have low self esteem about it. I have met locals who have no clue about some the history, urban density, and even ethnic hoods right in their own backyard. Contrast that with Nashville which is full of more transplants and thus, tons of boosterism and hype.
Active construction *or proposals*.
Nashville exceeds that in $100+ million projects alone. Not even including developments in the burbs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Louisville metro has 3.86% population growth since 2010. That's steady and healthy.
You can chalk it up to boosterism and hype, but the numbers don't lie. Nashville absolutely destroys Louisville in terms of development. It. Is. Not. Close. And no, I'm not a transplant booster. I am a native. I'm not suggesting that you shouldn't be PROUD of what is happening in Louisville. You should be. I say the same thing to our brothers from Memphis. I'm not attempting to put down Louisville to feel better about my own city. But to say the two are anywhere near the same plane is frankly ludicrous. In terms of any kind of development -- urban, suburban, office, residential, industrial, hotel, etc etc, Nashville is on a completely different plane than Louisville.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Nashville has 11.63% population growth. Nashville is not built for that kind of growth and the sprawl, traffic, and prices are ridiculous. Besides, I have made this argument many times, and it still stands...what does Mufreesboro sprawl do for me on a DAY TO DAY basis living in urban Nadhville? Sure, it may bring a Nordstrom or some higher end retail as there are more households with high income, but does that really matter in 2017 when I can order Nordstrom online much easier? Provided I had the same job making 50,000 a year, wouldn't I prefer to live in a historic, authentic urban environment that is more bohemian, at half the price? That is Louisville.
And here is where you completely undermine your own argument.
Louisville is BOOMING....but...Nashville is growing too fast? Oh...let me justify my argument by stating that Nashville is too sprawly and any physical amenities (like Nordstrom) can be replaced by buying online!
Cool. Nordstrom doesn't make a city. And you're right, Louisville has a lot of nice, old, urban housing stock. And the prices are better. But why are the prices better? Desirability. That is market driven. You prefer Louisville. I prefer Nashville. And there is a price attached to that. It's called the free market. Preference is subjective. More people want to move here. More houses are being built here. Prices are higher here. Desirability is higher here. You disagree? Awesome. Stay where you are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
I'll take the history, red brick urban fabric, arts, food, bourbon, culture, and festivals, any day of the week over the Nashville hype. That's not to say I don't love Nashville. I do. And of course Nashville has all of the aforementioned too (except historic red brick...face it urban Louisville just has much more of it, and it is architecually more interesting). And Louisville will never grow the same if only because its in KY...KY means a drain on Louisville, high taxes, and an anti business climate. It also means probably forever a backwoods stereotype. That and the state capital is not in Louisville and Frankfort won't feed Louisville like Nashville feeds itself. Nashville is the "golden child" in TN.
Blah blah blah blah. You don't love Nashville. Don't pretend like you do.
And Louisville isn't growing because it is in Kentucky? You think the same attitudes don't exist here? You think there isn't some animosity that Nashville is grabbing 60-75% of the total growth in the state? You think that some rural counties don't want to punish Nashville for the machine it has created? Take a look at our state government. There is definitely a lot of Nashville hate. Especially if it comes to anything related to immigrants or public transportation. Mind you, some of this extends to the other Big Four cities. But Nashville is definitely the attention-grabber. It doesn't matter if Nashville is driving the lion's share of the state's growth. It's not the golden child you think it is. Our BRT plan was squashed by legislators living 60-70 miles from town. They want to make it illegal for the cities to even make their own plans. Forget just using state funds. Forget using state roads.
Nashville isn't Atlanta. But it's also not Raleigh or Charlotte. Meaning it's not as big as Atlanta (or as important within the state) but there's also not the same competition within the state that you have with, say, North Carolina (or even South Carolina). Nashville is the big dog within Tennessee, but we don't have the numbers to dominate state politics. Within Tennessee, it's actually in Nashville's best interest to be very friendly with the other Big Four cities (as well with the suburban ring counties around Nashville). We're not the golden child you think we are.
What is driving the spectacular drive in population growth in Nashville is that it is a great city for tech. Nashville has inexpensive schools solely for programming that turn out excellent developers that attracts a great deal of young people. This produces a positive feedback loop in which the Nashville tech industry grows at breakneck speed due to the availability of workers which attracts more people looking to start out in the tech industry. Similar to how the rust belt cities exploded in population growth during the manufacturing era last century.
Nashville trades in creativity. It's something a place cannot simply bottle/import/produce/pretend to have. As music has become more reliant on high tech, people in Nashville responded accordingly. Compared to places much larger, Nashville exudes quality. Quality music, style, technology, and entrepreneurial flair. And it's contagious. Its location in a beautiful region, and in the South only helps its appeal. What was a small city a generation ago has moved solidly into leading the middle tier... but it's not looking back on its way to full-fledged cosmopolitan hub of business, arts and culture.
Announced today, a new look at Nashville's development planned for the old convention center. The new depiction shows large signage for the National Museum of African American Music. The article also mentions demolition to be on pace by this summer.
Those are some nice looking projects on the L'ville list, but I wouldn't call that booming. Take away the outliers like the Ford plant expansion, and Nashville far outpaces on new development. And the lower ends of Louisville's list (with lots of sub-5-10 million projects) simply don't make the cut on the Nashville list. Not to put too fine a point on it, just looked over the $100M+ projects, and Louisville's 5 (including Ford) compares to Nashville's 37.
You bandy about the $9 billion figure, which I've wondered how much is accounted for by the federal bridges projects or other big government projects. One of the truest indicators of a boom is consistent private investment, and I understand that a huge piece of Louisville's $9B is government funded, and that's over multiple years. But even if it is just a small portion, you really shouldn't complain about any state capital city getting the "gravy" over a project like the bridges. Louisville has not been hurt by having "Turtle Boy" Senate Majority Leader, and now his wife as Transportation Secretary, scooping up the green for the folks back home.
That $9 billion in projects compares favorably with Nashville, for which I haven't seen any figure stated similarly in cumulative amounts. I often hear of things in Nashville like $4B downtown in CURRENT projects underway, or $3B in suburban home construction; or $6.5 total permits released in a recent year. My point is that those figures are given with an explanation. Regarding L'ville, I haven't seen a breakdown of projects for that $9 billion figure. I recall seeing a video from a link you or someone here posted from a KY news channel that said the same thing. They said it was over a period of years. Looking at the projects via the link you posted here, I don't see $9 billion.
We here on C-D know one thing, and that is dollar figures can be thrown around without specificity, such as a total amount over a period of years; or one huge infrastructure project that skews the numbers to make things look like there's a longer term infusion of investments, thus making things appear to boom when there's nothing other than steady growth.
Regarding Louisville's "boom", I'm afraid the demographic and GDP growth don't bear that out. As you've noted, it's been steady and actually respectable for a Midwestern locale. But not both! You also comment that Nashville cannot handle their growth, but I travel to Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Charlotte and other boomers constantly. Compared to those places, I think Nashville is still one of the easiest to get around; and that's without mass transit, which I seldom use anyway. On that note, it appears that Nashville is going to get LRT and BRT when it passes the state house this year. So I disagree that Nashville can't handle their growth. 11-15 percent growth may seem like a lot, but compared to Dallas and Atlanta, it's not really so great. And I just don't get your comment about Murfreesboro, which is one of the fastest growing cities in the country... apart from Nashville.
A few things...Louisville's list is not comprehensive. Louisville's business paper is not funded by a private hype machine like Giarranta, who sponsors that list. Therefore, the list is rudimentary. Also, 90%+ in the development is in the core (Jefferson County). The majority of the rest is in the old urban core which happens to be on the other side of the river, which is merely a geo-political boundary. If you understand Louisville's history, present and past, you'll understand the river is a political line.
Louisville DOES have 9 BILLION in ACTIVE, current construction, or proposals in advanced planning.
I am not sure how you can argue this when I have pointed to several articles which display it. If you are calling a bluff, why don't you call Louisville's mayor. Whey would he make that up? Don't you think he knows what's going on? Also, there is NO WAY, unless you spent hours upon hours, you could have any clue, even after looking at the list, what is going on in Louisville.
The 2.3 BILLION bridges project is complete. THIS BRIDGE PROJECT IS NOT INCLUDED IN the 9 BILLION.
Please quit trying to downplay what is going on in Louisville. Louisville is absolutely booming, and the cranes and construction sites prove it. It's just Nasvhille's boom is more, and Nashville is booming in other ways besides commerce and construction. That has nothing to do with what is going on in Louisville, which is nothing short of impressive.
Also, Jefferson County KY is still larger and more urban than Nashville-Davidson. This DOESNT even account for the fact that Louisville is part of the "falls cities." This was a major nineteenth century metropolis and it still feels that way with the old urban architecture that Nashville will never have the same amount of, at least not for 100 years[/i]. Yes, Nashville is a larger metro area. Louisville has no answer for Mufreesboro, Franklin, even Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, etc. That said, many people who live in Louisville do not care for that sprawl and the traffic that comes with it. There are all sorts of threads complaining about Nashville traffic.
No one is saying Louisville is booming like Nashville. But Louisville IS booming in development....and the economy...straight from Mayor Fischer:
* "We’ve created 61,000 new jobs and 2,600 new businesses;
·**** We’ve cut the unemployment rate from more than 10 percent to 3.5 percent, the lowest in 15 years. "
And the fact is, Louisville metro has grown by almost 4% since the 2010 census, and Nashville has grown 11-12%. There's no question Nashville is one of the fastest growing metros, but Louisville is growing steadily.
However, comparisons of Louisville to the rust belt or even Memphis is unfair. The fact is, Louisville is somewhere in between in population growth. This goes along with its geographic location.
Nashville trades in creativity. It's something a place cannot simply bottle/import/produce/pretend to have. As music has become more reliant on high tech, people in Nashville responded accordingly. Compared to places much larger, Nashville exudes quality. Quality music, style, technology, and entrepreneurial flair. And it's contagious. Its location in a beautiful region, and in the South only helps its appeal. What was a small city a generation ago has moved solidly into leading the middle tier... but it's not looking back on its way to full-fledged cosmopolitan hub of business, arts and culture.
But....so does Louisville...arts, culture, bourbon, sophistication, history, urban, foodie, etc. What I am trying to get you all to realize is Nashville is not special in any of these regards. Places like Louisville offer just as much, just aren't as hyped. There are many more mid sized southern cities doing the same, just some don't have 2 pro sports teams and a TV show...the hype certainly drives more hype, which causes growth, which drives more hype. Some of the hype is deserved, some of it is not. Louisville is also starting to get hype...what country music has done for Nashville, bourbon has JUST started to do for Louisville in the last 3 years. Louisville's bourbon boom is in its infancy, while Nashville's country boom is well established, as evidenced by the TV show which dramatizes it.
Also, one quarter of office construction means nothing. Louisville had about 400k sq ft of new office constructed this yer, but is focusing more on historic renovations rather than new construction. Did you all ever stop to realize that Louisville doesn't need to "construct" as much as Nashville because it has historically been a much larger city? Likewise, Detroit will never construct as much as Phoenix, but the city is still making a come back.
Here is a classic example....Louisville's 800 tower was built in the 1960's and would still be one of the top 5 tallest residential towers, even in Nashville, even after 505 church opens (a VERY impressive building btw....Louisville has a proposal for something similar in a dense, historic neighborhood which I hope gets built).
It's 30 floors just underwent a multimillion dollar renovation. Admittedly, the building was pretty hood before. Now, its the lap of luxury. Louisville didn't need to build a bunch of 30 story apartment towers because they already exist! Several other highrise apartments have undergone complete renovations.
The old 17 story Barrington Place comes to mind too.
Last edited by Peter1948; 04-09-2017 at 06:12 AM..
A few things...Louisville's list is not comprehensive. Louisville's business paper is not funded by a private hype machine like Giarranta, who sponsors that list. Therefore, the list is rudimentary. Also, 90%+ in the development is in the core (Jefferson County). The majority of the rest is in the old urban core which happens to be on the other side of the river, which is merely a geo-political boundary. If you understand Louisville's history, present and past, you'll understand the river is a political line.
Excuses, excuses. The Biz journals are all part of the same damn company. The Nashville list isn't comprehensive, either. It's fairly accurate, but it doesn't include a lot of small projects or infrastructure projects.
If you want a more comprehensive map, check this one out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Louisville DOES have 9 BILLION in ACTIVE, current construction, or proposals in advanced planning.
I am not sure how you can argue this when I have pointed to several articles which display it. If you are calling a bluff, why don't you call Louisville's mayor. Whey would he make that up? Don't you think he knows what's going on? Also, there is NO WAY, unless you spent hours upon hours, you could have any clue, even after looking at the list, what is going on in Louisville.
The 2.3 BILLION bridges project is complete. THIS BRIDGE PROJECT IS NOT INCLUDED IN the 9 BILLION.
"Proposals in advanced planning." That is a really good way to inflate the numbers right there. I can tell you Nashville has several $500+ million developments that are either in "advanced planning" or in early phases of the project. Most of those will take years and years to get off the ground, because they are big, complex projects. And some will probably be altered or scrapped altogether. That's the nature of things.
What is being built? Actually under construction. Not planned. Not green-lighted. At least broken ground and has equipment on-site.
Also -- big infrastructure projects...another way to boost the $ figure. That's great. Infrastructure projects are necessary. But they aren't necessarily an indicator of a construction boom.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Please quit trying to downplay what is going on in Louisville. Louisville is absolutely booming, and the cranes and construction sites prove it. It's just Nasvhille's boom is more, and Nashville is booming in other ways besides commerce and construction. That has nothing to do with what is going on in Louisville, which is nothing short of impressive.
I know you are responding to somebody else here -- so I will say this. I'm quite happy that Louisville is seeing a good bit of action. As an urban development enthusiast, I feel that way about most every city. However, I think something to keep in mind is that a lot of cities are seeing a lot of urban construction right now.
"Absolutely booming" compared to what, exactly? I'm not denying that there's a lot of construction going on there. But "booming" tends to be reserved for places that are growing a whole lot faster than Louisville.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Also, Jefferson County KY is still larger and more urban than Nashville-Davidson. This DOESNT even account for the fact that Louisville is part of the "falls cities." This was a major nineteenth century metropolis and it still feels that way with the old urban architecture that Nashville will never have the same amount of, at least not for 100 years[/i]. Yes, Nashville is a larger metro area. Louisville has no answer for Mufreesboro, Franklin, even Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, etc. That said, many people who live in Louisville do not care for that sprawl and the traffic that comes with it. There are all sorts of threads complaining about Nashville traffic.
This is in almost the same exact vein as the attitude many Memphians had when Nashville became a larger metro...that's living in the past, bro.
Yes, it is true that Louisville was a much bigger city at a much earlier time than Nashville. So it has a larger core, more old school urban architecture, etc. That's great. You can't fake that. It's definitely an asset for Louisville. Right now, the skylines are fairly similar in terms of breakdown of height...but the disparity is going to grow pretty rapidly
The amount of infill Nashville is getting is staggering. Entire neighborhoods look different than they did even 3-4 years ago. The cranes are impressive, for sure. But what you don't see on the surface is the number of 3-7 story apartment blocks that have gone up. Greenfields and brownfields are being eaten up by developers. Places like Germantown, especially, are seeing massive increases in density. Just a quick look and I found 2,284 units built or U/C (not planned) since 2010 in a less than half square mile area in Germantown/Salemtown. Most of this development is taking place on industrial sites. And there are a lot of neighborhoods like this in the urban core.
Murfreesboro and Franklin are booming. But Nashville's urban core is growing at an insane melt-your-face pace.
Yes, the Nashville area is sprawly. Yes, Jefferson County is currently more populated than Davidson. But if the trends continue, that won't be the case for long. And don't forget that Davidson County has a huge mass of land in the west and north sides of the county that is very rural, and very rugged (and will never see intense development). 80% of Davidson County's population is concentrated in 40% of the land area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
And the fact is, Louisville metro has grown by almost 4% since the 2010 census, and Nashville has grown 11-12%. There's no question Nashville is one of the fastest growing metros, but Louisville is growing steadily.
Let's put some context to these numbers:
Numerical growth rank 2010-2016 (among 389 Metropolitan Statistical Areas):
Nashville - 23rd
Louisville - 60th
And now 1,000,000+ metros:
Percentage growth rank (among 53 metros):
Nashville - 8th
Louisville - 33rd
Components of change 2010-2016 (these numbers don't totally add up -- that's from the Census Bureau -- take it up with them)
Metro - total change - natural increase (births/deaths) - net migration (international/domestic)
Nashville - +194,415 - +61,827 (+146,379/-84,552) - +130,138 (+25,807/+104,331)
Louisville - +47,720 - +25,013 (+98,738/-73,725) - +24,120 (+15,645/+8,475)
Forget the sprawlburbs. Murfreesboro, Franklin, Hendersonville, Mt. Juliet. Nashville itself is outperforming your entire metro area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
However, comparisons of Louisville to the rust belt or even Memphis is unfair. The fact is, Louisville is somewhere in between in population growth. This goes along with its geographic location.
Somewhere in between, yes. But the fact is it is closer in terms of growth to Memphis and some Rust Belt cities than it is to Nashville. You want a comparable? Louisville is growing at close to the same rate as Knoxville.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
But....so does Louisville...arts, culture, bourbon, sophistication, history, urban, foodie, etc. What I am trying to get you all to realize is Nashville is not special in any of these regards. Places like Louisville offer just as much, just aren't as hyped. There are many more mid sized southern cities doing the same, just some don't have 2 pro sports teams and a TV show...the hype certainly drives more hype, which causes growth, which drives more hype. Some of the hype is deserved, some of it is not. Louisville is also starting to get hype...what country music has done for Nashville, bourbon has JUST started to do for Louisville in the last 3 years. Louisville's bourbon boom is in its infancy, while Nashville's country boom is well established, as evidenced by the TV show which dramatizes it.
You keep using the word hype. That's fine. But I should point out to you that Nashville's "Country" image was long considered a negative thing. So we turned it into a positive? Great. We still grew by leaps and bounds in the 90s when we weren't so cool. We got two pro teams before we were cool. The Country scene gives us some star power and publicity, sure. But the really cool thing is how the non-Country scene has exploded. The number of non-Country musicians that live and record here would probably shock you. It's not a Country boom. Make no mistake. It's a music boom.
And we also have all that other crap. Foodie scene, craft beer, craft spirits, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Also, one quarter of office construction means nothing. Louisville had about 400k sq ft of new office constructed this yer, but is focusing more on historic renovations rather than new construction. Did you all ever stop to realize that Louisville doesn't need to "construct" as much as Nashville because it has historically been a much larger city? Likewise, Detroit will never construct as much as Phoenix, but the city is still making a come back.
See, here you go again. You're focusing on historic renovations (which are good btw), but ignoring that it doesn't indicate that it is healthy for the market. Are those historic renos Class A office space? I doubt it. And a reno isn't adding anything to your bottom line. Yay, you renovated. But you didn't add inventory. That's not booming. That's stagnation.
You had 400k new office construction? We had 4 buildings totally 1.7 million sq ft. And that's just downtown. So while Louisville is virtually standing still, Nashville is blowing past it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter1948
Here is a classic example....Louisville's 800 tower was built in the 1960's and would still be one of the top 5 tallest residential towers, even in Nashville, even after 505 church opens (a VERY impressive building btw....Louisville has a proposal for something similar in a dense, historic neighborhood which I hope gets built).
It's 30 floors just underwent a multimillion dollar renovation. Admittedly, the building was pretty hood before. Now, its the lap of luxury. Louisville didn't need to build a bunch of 30 story apartment towers because they already exist! Several other highrise apartments have undergone complete renovations.
The old 17 story Barrington Place comes to mind too.
Again, that's fantastic. You're talking about residential towers that already exist.
Nashville was definitely behind the curve when it comes to developing highrise residential. So while Louisville has
So how many non-public housing projects does Louisville have that are 250' or taller?
We have:
505 - 45 floors - 523 ft - U/C
Viridian - 31 floors - 378 ft - completed
SoBro - 33 floors - 345 ft - completed
Skyhouse - 25 floors - 289 ft - completed
ICON - 22 floors - 286 ft - completed
TwelveTwelve - 23 floors - 270 ft - completed
Encore - 21 floors - 269 ft - completed
"Louisville didn't need to build a bunch of 30 story apartment towers because they already exist."
Louisville has zero residential buildings over 30 stories. The 800 is 29, and Waterfront Park Place is 23.
If you think Louisville has some kind of lead in (non public housing) highrise residential, you are sorely mistaken. And we have at least four 300+ footers planned.
Not knocking Louisville. You're just delusional AF.
This has gone on long enough. There are other threads comparing Nashville and Louisville in the city vs. city forum which is where these types of threads belong. This particular thread is now closed.
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its - possession
it's - contraction of it is
your - possession
you're - contraction of you are
their - possession
they're - contraction of they are
there - referring to a place
loose - opposite of tight
lose - opposite of win
who's - contraction of who is
whose - possession
alot - NOT A WORD
Last edited by JMT; 04-10-2017 at 06:44 AM..
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