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Old 09-24-2015, 08:26 PM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74

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Quote:
Originally Posted by One23 View Post
This thread basicially says buy anywhere in Nashville and you'll do well. There is already a slow down in the market and you can see sellers lowering prices all over town. Something you didn't see much of earlier in the year. With the upcoming interest rate hikes in the next 1 or 2 quarters prices will stabilize. If you buy anything now, consider it a long term investment and not something to flip in a year a two. Instead of listening to someone's promise that the roughest area of the city will get better, a safer bet would be to build your cash and take advantage of the financially leveraged people in the next downturn. Timing is everything in investing.
This is and isn't true in my opinion. There are areas of Nashville that had been for a very long time "undervalued" and never really experienced the boom some sections had before the crash. I think of my S. Nashville neighborhood as one and it was really because literally nothing came to market for the longest time. (seriously 1-2 properties a year) Without turnover, it is hard to see growth. Then there are the areas that were formerly undesirable but everyone says, "Hey, wait! This is right next store to a hot area-let's do some urban pioneering." (ie Wedgewood Houston, Lafayette/Chestnut Sts, Cleveland Park, Inglewood, etc., etc.)

The boom has now caused a lot more turnover in areas where there was little to no inventory with the soaring prices. People are flipping and putting their homes on the market. I think this will stabilize, but I'm not sure I'd say the market is slowing. I'm still seeing 5-10 offers on a correctly priced house. I also think there are some areas that have been consistently popular like Crieve Hall that may be losing some of its customers to some of the new hotspots like Woodbine, Glencliff, and Radnor closer to town. That said, there are so many buyers for each house over there (CH), I'm not sure that would even be perceptible.

But at the end of the day, it would be hard to make a bad buy in this market. Some areas will of course be better bets than others. But the demand really is there and as long as you are paying market value (which appraisers seem to be holding firmly in place) things should be okay. I think.
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Old 09-25-2015, 07:22 AM
 
22 posts, read 32,640 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siamese Kitty View Post
This is and isn't true in my opinion. There are areas of Nashville that had been for a very long time "undervalued" and never really experienced the boom some sections had before the crash. I think of my S. Nashville neighborhood as one and it was really because literally nothing came to market for the longest time. (seriously 1-2 properties a year) Without turnover, it is hard to see growth. Then there are the areas that were formerly undesirable but everyone says, "Hey, wait! This is right next store to a hot area-let's do some urban pioneering." (ie Wedgewood Houston, Lafayette/Chestnut Sts, Cleveland Park, Inglewood, etc., etc.)

The boom has now caused a lot more turnover in areas where there was little to no inventory with the soaring prices. People are flipping and putting their homes on the market. I think this will stabilize, but I'm not sure I'd say the market is slowing. I'm still seeing 5-10 offers on a correctly priced house. I also think there are some areas that have been consistently popular like Crieve Hall that may be losing some of its customers to some of the new hotspots like Woodbine, Glencliff, and Radnor closer to town. That said, there are so many buyers for each house over there (CH), I'm not sure that would even be perceptible.

But at the end of the day, it would be hard to make a bad buy in this market. Some areas will of course be better bets than others. But the demand really is there and as long as you are paying market value (which appraisers seem to be holding firmly in place) things should be okay. I think.
The term "urban pioneering" is truly aggrevating. Anyway, the prices that developers and flippers expected to get in the last couple of months were definitely optimistic and you have seen plenty of price reductions and extended days on the market as compared to earlier in the year. Sure a well priced house will get a ton of offers and many will be in cash, however, you will be paying top dollar and I can guarantee that is not what the OP is looking for. Every part of Nashville has experienced at least a 20% increase in the past few years and some areas have more than tripled. Therefore, a lot of the profits are already gone for someone just entering the market and there is little room for mistakes for an inexperienced flipper. You can buy a cheap house in a rough neighborhood, but when you buy one of these houses you are usually buying a home with poor insulation, bad floor plan, structural issues, lead paint, asbestos, etc. You can easily be in over your head before you even have to pay realtor costs on the flip.
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:04 AM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by One23 View Post
The term "urban pioneering" is truly aggrevating. Anyway, the prices that developers and flippers expected to get in the last couple of months were definitely optimistic and you have seen plenty of price reductions and extended days on the market as compared to earlier in the year. Sure a well priced house will get a ton of offers and many will be in cash, however, you will be paying top dollar and I can guarantee that is not what the OP is looking for. Every part of Nashville has experienced at least a 20% increase in the past few years and some areas have more than tripled. Therefore, a lot of the profits are already gone for someone just entering the market and there is little room for mistakes for an inexperienced flipper. You can buy a cheap house in a rough neighborhood, but when you buy one of these houses you are usually buying a home with poor insulation, bad floor plan, structural issues, lead paint, asbestos, etc. You can easily be in over your head before you even have to pay realtor costs on the flip.
I am not fully disagreeing with you, only saying this is true of some areas more than others. I don't love the "urban pioneering" term either and did not move to my South Nashville neighborhood in covered wagon, but what can you do, right?

I will say that appraisals have been ROUGH this year and in my opinion, almost unfair to some sellers. They have to work with historical pricing per their guidelines so even if a house is truly "worth" it, it may not appraise if it is one of the first to break a price point. This is keeping pricing in check without a doubt, unless a buyer has all cash or cash to make up the difference. FHA appraisals follow a home for six months. I personally try to avoid homes that I know won't appraise on either the listing or the buyer end (unless I know my buyer has cash to make up the difference and wants to.) Either side has the right to walk away with a low appraisal and not every seller is going to say fine, I'll take $10K less. This is especially hard to negotiate when said home with a low appraisal had 4-5 full priced offers on it. With this said, last year's crazily priced home is this year's steal. I've seen 40-50% increases in some markets within a year, which in my opinion IS kind of nuts.

Is this good? Maybe. Frustrating? Yes, it can be. There are a lot of implications to price increases (taxes, forcing neighborhood natives out, etc., etc.) But if we follow the idea that supply and demand drive market pricing, a glut of overpriced homes should cause the market to self-correct and come out in the wash. Homes that have increased in value and continue to sell strongly and quickly may be 1. in a market that was badly in need of a price correction and to that end, 2. priced correctly. When the envelope gets pushed too far, homes sit.

One other factor that is going to come into play here within the next month is the overhaul of lender disclosures and closing procedures. We are now going to need longer to close a loan due to new regulations and policies, at least in the short term. I expect to see a small market glitch there for a couple of months because you won't have as many 20-30 day closings. (unless you're cash) Should be fun.

ETA: In terms of getting in over one's head with regard to fixes, I think home inspections are imperative. I'm seeing some people negotiate them away to get a house and I think that's a mistake. In some cases, an additional $450 structural inspection can also give a big piece of mind, too, if there are questions. Most lenders will require a termite letter, but if you're all cash it's a choice.

Last edited by Siamese Kitty; 09-25-2015 at 08:20 AM.. Reason: ETA
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Old 09-25-2015, 08:06 AM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by One23 View Post
The term "urban pioneering" is truly aggrevating. Anyway, the prices that developers and flippers expected to get in the last couple of months were definitely optimistic and you have seen plenty of price reductions and extended days on the market as compared to earlier in the year. Sure a well priced house will get a ton of offers and many will be in cash, however, you will be paying top dollar and I can guarantee that is not what the OP is looking for. Every part of Nashville has experienced at least a 20% increase in the past few years and some areas have more than tripled. Therefore, a lot of the profits are already gone for someone just entering the market and there is little room for mistakes for an inexperienced flipper. You can buy a cheap house in a rough neighborhood, but when you buy one of these houses you are usually buying a home with poor insulation, bad floor plan, structural issues, lead paint, asbestos, etc. You can easily be in over your head before you even have to pay realtor costs on the flip.
Sorry, meant to ask in my last post. What specific markets are you referring to here? I am interested in checking this out. Never hurts to be more informed!
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Old 09-25-2015, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Savannah, GA
32 posts, read 40,270 times
Reputation: 17
Just tell me where the hipsters are moving to and the money will follow...Hipsters = artists and money follows art!
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Old 09-29-2015, 11:22 PM
 
11 posts, read 21,999 times
Reputation: 11
Ok, this is the OP coming back to clarify my question...

I'm looking to live in the house that I'm buying. I want to make the highest ROI in 5 years (my average planned selling timeframe). I'm not picky about the house if given the right price. But I'd like to live at most a medium crime neighborhood or in a neighborhood that is going to turn pretty soon. So TSU/Fisk may be out of the question.

Now, I have a flexible timeframe to buy and like to buy low as a very high priority. Also, I've renovated a 3700 sqft house to almost the studs (of course, paid other to do it, but managed it myself), so I know what's involved and have connections to a trusted crew that can do that OR build a house from scratch. Land is an option. Sometimes I think of land zoned for 2 and build one for myself and one to rent or sell.

Anyway, hope that clarifies what I'm looking for
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Old 09-30-2015, 11:42 AM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74
Did you ever mention your budget above? That will help to narrow the search.
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Old 09-30-2015, 11:44 AM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by brentwoodgirl View Post
What does everyone think about Old Hickory Village? I noticed a lot of houses for sale up there have been redone. And developers are putting in $500,000+ houses with water views.
But it looks like sales are fairly slow, esp for the older homes.
It has some gorgeous old homes at great prices, but it isn't very convenient. I keep meaning to drive up there and look at the area. Does it seem like an area that could boom?
Just saw this, BG. There has been a LOT of action up this way in the last 6 months. I actually went up there not long ago to check it out because I was intrigued by the activity. There are a lot of homes being renovated and some even being knocked down to clear way for new construction.
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Old 09-30-2015, 12:52 PM
 
74 posts, read 89,470 times
Reputation: 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willie1212 View Post
South of downtown, I would focus on: Wedgewood Houston, Chestnut Hill, the fairgrounds area, the Trevecca area, Woodbine, Glencliffe and Radnor. Understand that the only 'inner ring', urban neighborhoods that have not doubled in the last 3 years are around TSU/ Fisk. Those will come, too - eventually. Virtually all other close in city neighborhoods have been discovered...including the ones I've mentioned. JMO
To the OP: that's pretty much what I thought you meant. I'd focus on Woodbine, Glencliffe and Radnor as per my original post above.
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Old 09-30-2015, 03:02 PM
 
114 posts, read 140,102 times
Reputation: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willie1212 View Post
To the OP: that's pretty much what I thought you meant. I'd focus on Woodbine, Glencliffe and Radnor as per my original post above.
Ditto. Depending on budget, I'd add Glencliff Estates, Glengarry Park (GE & GP are now known collectively as East Thompson Community, or ETC), Battlewood, and the area north of Glenrose (Sharpe Park, Cunningham Heights, etc.) Please note there are many parts of Woodbine north of Thompson that are not called Woodbine on tax records. (Just in case you come across things in Glenrose, Sterling Heights, Sadler, Barbara Heights, etc.)

If you're looking north of 300K, Wedgewood Houston, Chesnut Hill, or parts of Berry Hill could be a consideration.

Last edited by Siamese Kitty; 09-30-2015 at 03:04 PM.. Reason: edited for clarity
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