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Old 06-17-2010, 01:19 AM
 
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I fear that they are never going to be able to stop this leak from gushing. It's like trying to put a cork in Mt. Pinatubo before it exploded in 1991---the pressure from the earth is just too great to be stopped by anything man can devise. So when all that oil empties several years from now there will be a gigantic empty space beneath the Gulf, perhaps like a Super Grand Canyon. Is it possible that those trillions (?) of tons of water resting on a thin sea floor could just crack the floor and cause a large portion of the Gulf to pour into this enormous cavern in the earth? I just ask, "Is it possible?" and if it is, what would be the ramifications of that much water pouring into this gigantic "hole"?

http://pierrejoris.com/blog/?p=3867

Last edited by thrillobyte; 06-17-2010 at 01:24 AM.. Reason: addition
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Old 06-17-2010, 05:13 AM
 
Location: Interior Low Plateau
185 posts, read 368,102 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I fear that they are never going to be able to stop this leak from gushing.
The flow will be stopped when the relief well intersects the original well bore. It is a fairly routine procedure that used all the time to kill wells. It is just that we don't hear about it, because unlike this well, the BOP operated as designed, and there is no blowout.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
It's like trying to put a cork in Mt. Pinatubo before it exploded in 1991---the pressure from the earth is just too great to be stopped by anything man can devise.
No, it is not like Pinatubo at all. If it were, there would be/would have been massive leaks from formations in the geologic past so that there would be no oil left, today.

I think that your mistaken ideal is from a lack of knowledge about geology and petroleum extraction.

Think about it... if your ideal were true, no well could drilled-they would all blowout when the bit reached the producing formation. It is the hydrostatic pressure of the drilling mud that prevents the oil from rushing up through the well bore when the formation is reached.

This blowout occurred because the cement seal on the final string of casement was compromised. When the crew started replacing the drilling mud with water, the hydrostatic pressure in the well bore was less that the formation pressure and formation fluids escaped up the annulus(the between the production string and the casement).


Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
So when all that oil empties several years from now there will be a gigantic empty space beneath the Gulf, perhaps like a Super Grand Canyon.
Once again, I don't think that you understand the geology. Oil doesn't come from vast caverns beneath the ground, it is trapped in the interstitial pore spaces in clastic sediments and vugs/cracks in carbonates. Too, the rock has to be permeable. If a formation is porous, but has no permeability, it won't produce unless the rock is fractured/dissolved using mechanical/chemical methods.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
Is it possible that those trillions (?) of tons of water resting on a thin sea floor could just crack the floor and cause a large portion of the Gulf to pour into this enormous cavern in the earth? I just ask, "Is it possible?" and if it is, what would be the ramifications of that much water pouring into this gigantic "hole"?
No, it is not possible.


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Old 06-17-2010, 12:46 PM
 
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Thanks for the clarification, sman. You obviously have some knowledge of how all this works.
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Old 06-17-2010, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Destrehan, Louisiana
2,192 posts, read 6,307,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sman View Post
The flow will be stopped when the relief well intersects the original well bore. It is a fairly routine procedure that used all the time to kill wells. It is just that we don't hear about it, because unlike this well, the BOP operated as designed, and there is no blowout.



No, it is not like Pinatubo at all. If it were, there would be/would have been massive leaks from formations in the geologic past so that there would be no oil left, today.

I think that your mistaken ideal is from a lack of knowledge about geology and petroleum extraction.

Think about it... if your ideal were true, no well could drilled-they would all blowout when the bit reached the producing formation. It is the hydrostatic pressure of the drilling mud that prevents the oil from rushing up through the well bore when the formation is reached.

This blowout occurred because the cement seal on the final string of casement was compromised. When the crew started replacing the drilling mud with water, the hydrostatic pressure in the well bore was less that the formation pressure and formation fluids escaped up the annulus(the between the production string and the casement).




Once again, I don't think that you understand the geology. Oil doesn't come from vast caverns beneath the ground, it is trapped in the interstitial pore spaces in clastic sediments and vugs/cracks in carbonates. Too, the rock has to be permeable. If a formation is porous, but has no permeability, it won't produce unless the rock is fractured/dissolved using mechanical/chemical methods.



No, it is not possible.



This doesn't look to good for the gulf floor. Watch the video and tell me what you think.

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/06/13/bp-gulf-oil-spill-seafloor-oil-gas-leak-videos-photos/ (broken link)

busta
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Old 06-17-2010, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Interior Low Plateau
185 posts, read 368,102 times
Reputation: 99
People, a lot more knowledgeable than I, have concluded that oil isn't leaking through cracks in the floor. I accept their conclusions. Though, the top kill was a dangerous operation that could have led to failure in the upper strings of casement-that is why it was stopped. But even if there is failure, it is in the top of the string, and the mud weight for the bottom kill can be calculated to account for this possibility. They can make the mud so heavy that it will effectively kill the well before it reaches the upper casement.

It will be complicated, and they will loose mud to the formation due to erosion, but I don't think that the problems are insurmountable... regardless of what the doomsdayers are saying.
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Old 06-17-2010, 08:25 PM
 
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It's not like the oil was going to stay there, they were drilling so they could suck it all out, for a profit.
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Old 06-17-2010, 10:29 PM
 
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guess the conclusion is it can't happen, although it would be interesting if the bed crashed and we had a giant oil tsunami on the shore
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Old 06-18-2010, 05:03 AM
 
Location: Interior Low Plateau
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Though, more interesting would be if Cthulu sucked out all of our brains.
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Old 06-22-2010, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Orlando, Florida
43,858 posts, read 45,086,975 times
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I thought that sea water and/or heavy mud is used to fill the caverns to keep them from collapsing. I'm assuming someone out there has already addressed this and it is being taken care of.
Geeze....who knows???
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Old 06-22-2010, 10:01 AM
 
Location: U.S.A.
3,305 posts, read 9,735,303 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
Thanks for the clarification, sman. You obviously have some knowledge of how all this works.

Think about it another way...IF there were a cavern that would mean that the oil is being pushed out of the "crack" due to the pressure of all the sea water above it. This means that the cavern roof would collapse at a rate relative to the rate of oil escaping from it. Like squeezing a tube of toothpaste.
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