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Old 08-09-2019, 05:14 PM
 
Location: Chandler,AZ
442 posts, read 218,411 times
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I read an article that stated the PNW is going to be at more risk for wildfires because of climate change/global warming w/e you want to call it. How long would vegetation stay green if it were to dry about 20% over the next 50 years?
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Old Yesterday, 01:47 AM
 
Location: on the wind
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Quote:
Originally Posted by popwar View Post
I read an article that stated the PNW is going to be at more risk for wildfires because of climate change/global warming w/e you want to call it. How long would vegetation stay green if it were to dry about 20% over the next 50 years?
Of course there would still be "green"!! Vegetation doesn't just sit there unchanging. Deciduous plants sprout and green up in spring, bloom or produce seed in summer, then die off again. Consider grasses...green in spring and early summer but turn more golden or brown as summer goes along. How long each species stays green during its growing season depends in the species and the weather (weather is different than climate) during a particular year. Of course there are green plants in dry regions. They may not stay green as long during a growing year, but they are certainly there. What many people consider the PNW has a huge percentage of pretty dry habitats east of the Cascades now.

The plant communities in the PNW would obviously change in response to the climate. Its already happening. Species that used to occur farther south and east (where it is warmer and drier) are already being found where they haven't been seen before. They tend to be better at conserving water, less prone to sun and drought damage, and recover faster after fires. They'll keep expanding farther into the PNW as the climate shifts. Species that don't tolerate warmer drier conditions will eventually lose out or be a lot less common over time, or retreat to areas that are still cool and wet (like higher elevations, along major rivers, or right along the coast).

Evergreens would still be green (there are evergreens in much drier climates than the PNW), but just as with deciduous species, those species of evergreens that don't tolerate drier hotter temps and more frequent fires would die out or be outcompeted by those that do. Hemlocks and cedars replaced by fir, pines, and juniper. There would be a gradual switch of species, not just some massive brown die off.
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Old Yesterday, 03:22 AM
 
Location: The Driftless Area, WI
2,798 posts, read 1,086,415 times
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The average weather (climate) of any given geographic area has more to do with various factors affecting energy distribution than anything else. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/...ons-checklist/


The recent weather pattern in the PNW is due to a stable blocking high pressure cell over the north Pacific. That brings warmer weather to Alaska and colder weather to the center of the N.Am. continent. It has nothing to do with "GW."


The temperate rain forest biome of the PNW is dominated by trees- long living creatures whose population has adapted to the prevailing weather pattern of the area. They've experienced relative drought in the past and would have died if they were susceptible to that amount of drought....If the climate of the area is indeed changing, then the flora & fauna will change accordingly.


You can't keep the environment stable under a bell jar indefinitely.
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Old Yesterday, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Forest bathing
1,665 posts, read 995,395 times
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This summer has been closer to normal than the past several years. There was rain and thunder/lightning yesterday and today is overcast/misty.
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Old Yesterday, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Southwest Washington State
22,235 posts, read 14,604,119 times
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W heard thunder last night. This summer has been lovely and cool. I wish it would always be that way, frankly.

I have tried to find out what the fall-winter prediction is for the PNW is, but I have not been successful. Will there be El Nino this year?
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Old Yesterday, 08:45 PM
 
Location: British Columbia ☀️ ♥ 🍁 ♥ ☀️
7,433 posts, read 6,686,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silibran View Post
W heard thunder last night. This summer has been lovely and cool. I wish it would always be that way, frankly.

I have tried to find out what the fall-winter prediction is for the PNW is, but I have not been successful. Will there be El Nino this year?
Apparently it's here now but is predicted to become neutral in a couple of months.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf

Quote:


August 5, 2019 Summary

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

El Niño is present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the western and central Pacific Ocean.

The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with El Niño.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here -> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...enso_advisory/
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Old Today, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Seattle
1,077 posts, read 232,915 times
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Some climate models predict more rainfall in the Pacific Northwest, along with overall temperature increases. In that case we'll experience wetter fall and winter, and dryer summers. I.e. greater extremes.

About the Assessment – Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
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