Reno-Sparks area and Tesla (buying, go bankrupt, luxury)

[A1eutian]

There is risk in building the biggest anything in the world and the Gigafactory seems like one of those ventures doomed to fail.

The cult of Elon Musk is wearing thin in the business world. His behavior even before the infamous blunt incident was troubling. Musk faces the possibility of being removed from leadership roles in all of his ventures. It would be better for him and the companies if he steps aside.

Then there is the question of obsolescence. Could a breakthrough technology make the whole gazillion acre factory another industrial artifact? Or is it flexible enough to adapt?

And finally there is a risk that Tesla, Inc will fail to make timely payments on its ten billion in debt, if there is a recession and people stop buying their cars as even the model 3 is selling in the luxury auto price range.

Does anyone living in the Reno/Sparks area think the Gigafactory will still be cranking out batteries in 5 or 10 years?

https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

[Vic Romano]

If you're asking the people in Reno/Sparks, why didn't you put it in that subforum?

Sure why wouldn't they be making batteries? They've been selling cars, so they will need replacement batteries. Maybe they will find other uses for the batteries they are cranking out.

If Tesla truly does fail, maybe Panasonic will buy it out. Who knows? There are so many possibilities. There will still be demand for batteries.

[Cold Warrior]

Electric cars will always need batteries, but they don't need the current lithium batteries, which may soon be obsolete.

John Goodenough invented the lithium-ion battery.

Goodenough, who is now 95, continues to pursue his latest quest — the solid-state lithium battery. Now, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society earlier this year, he and his research partners say they have done it. Done what, exactly? The title of the study says it all — “Nontraditional, Safe, High Voltage

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/26...nally-done-it/

[Gatopescado]

When Tesla goes tats up, it will only put a small dent in the demand for the stuff they are making out there. Its my understanding that they produce batteries for all kinds of applications. Also, that industrial park has so much more out there going for it.

I ain't too worried. I just hope someplace like Texas or Arizona doesn't offer huge tax incentives and special deals and pulls some of that good stuff away.

[lvmensch]

This will all depend on the process used for the new lithium version. It all sounds very good. But it has to scale up to an industrial scale process. One of the key question is whether it will still make sense to do the rolled battery in the relatively small size. And how is the solid state electrolyte formed? These may come out very different as it is not going to be driven by the overheating/fire problems of the existing system.

I would suspect that a very high percentage of the Tesla factory is salvageable with the new technology. Remember at the end you are still putting out big boxes of batteries. And they will likely stay around the same size providing range at least as an option.

[Chris S]

I'm biased in that I'm a recent Tesla buyer, but I believe they're on track to become the world's largest automaker. Will they stumble? Of course, especially as long as Elon is in charge. Will they face a liquidity crisis &/or go bankrupt? Who knows, but what automaker wouldn't love the opportunity to buy and take over their IP, product lines, and Supercharger network? I have no doubt that the company's future prospects are as great as its products.

[505HPC6Z06]

Originally Posted by A1eutian

Does anyone living in the Reno/Sparks area think the Gigafactory will still be cranking out batteries in 5 or 10 years?

https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

No. Tesla will fail. The housing prices will fall back down to pre-Gigafactory prices and people will be happy.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by 505HPC6Z06

No. Tesla will fail. The housing prices will fall back down to pre-Gigafactory prices and people will be happy.

Unlikely. Be like a casino going bankrupt. The facility and its capability is valuable with or without Tesla.

[505HPC6Z06]

Be like first of its kind. You can't compare it to an industry that has been around since whores first made their name.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by 505HPC6Z06

Be like first of its kind. You can't compare it to an industry that has been around since whores first made their name.

Of course you can. Is the output profitable and useful? Is it expensive to replicate? If both are true the function continues whether Tesla does or not.

Now if you have some theory that electric cars will totally vanish you might be partially right. But even then a cost effective Tesla Wall might make it as a product. I would think the only way the gigsafactory dies once up is if the need for large battery assemblies goes away. I doubt that.